- The 'truth' about this non-farm: neither good nor bad, but 'unreliable'.

Beijing time 21:30, the U.S. non-farm data is delayed:

- October non-farm decreased 105,000 (October employment declined, more due to 'political events', not an economic collapse, with limited real implications for the economy)

- November non-farm increased 64,000 - higher than the expected 50,000

- November unemployment rate 4.6% (government shutdown, temporary unemployment) - higher than the expected 4.4%

This is an 'incomplete non-farm', due to the U.S. government shutdown lasting 43 days, which prevented data collection from households, so it will not include the October unemployment rate and other indicators. What you see this time is not a 'clean data', but a patchwork version of non-farm.

First, from the numbers, one cold and one hot. This is not a 'suddenly deteriorating' non-farm report, but a 'slowly cooling, and the data itself has flaws' non-farm report—employment hasn't collapsed, but it is continuously cooling—making it difficult to dispel the fog and instead adding to the confusion.

Second, the unemployment rate is even more surprising (it's the only 'truly biting part' in this data), thus it dominated the market trend. After the data was released, a surprising scene occurred—the market's volatility was relatively restrained, with gold only rising by more than 10 dollars—because this is a non-farm report that the market might not believe (credibility discounted), the logic of 'bad news is good news' still exists, but the threshold is being raised. For example, the unemployment rate is higher than expected, but 'the nature is ambiguous.' Part of it is temporary unemployment during the standstill period, and part is trend-based: recruiting stagnation, re-employment slowing. This makes it difficult for the market to judge: is it a one-time noise? Or a precursor to a turning point? So the price reaction has been compressed.

Therefore, whatever happens in the market does not represent the future trend. The real state of the market is: afraid to bet to extremes.

This non-farm report is more like 'emotional tone-setting,' not direction confirmation. The market will not collapse because of this, but will become more cautious, more picky, and more easily swayed by volatility.#美联储降息 $BTC