Last week, the Bitcoin network's hash rate plummeted by 17.25%, which left many people confused, wondering if there was a problem with the Bitcoin network? Don't panic, such a drastic fluctuation of over 15% in hash rate has never been an isolated technical failure; to put it simply, it's a result of a collaboration between the market, miners, and fate.
Let's talk about the most core reason: miners are not making money, so they can only turn off their machines and run away.
Bitcoin mining is essentially a 'electricity bill business.' Mining machines hum 24 hours a day, and the electricity bill is unyielding. Once the coin price drops, or the overall mining difficulty increases, miners holding onto old, high-energy-consuming machines will find it tough. Earnings drop sharply, and it seems they are about to fall below the 'shutdown price,' which means the money earned from mining is not enough to pay the electricity bill. At this point, do they just wait to lose money without turning off their machines?
Such events have happened multiple times in history. In March 2020, the market crashed, and computing power followed suit; in July 2022, during the worst of the bear market, a large number of miners directly hit the pause button on their machines, leading to a cliff-like drop in computing power. To put it plainly, the drop in computing power does not mean Bitcoin is failing, but that inefficient miners are being eliminated from the market.
Of course, aside from money matters, there are some uncontrollable forces causing trouble, like the mining machines needing to 'move house' again.
Old miners all know that China's mining machines migrate seasonally in places like Sichuan and Xinjiang. In summer, electricity is cheap in Sichuan, so all the mining machines gather there; once the flood season is over and electricity prices rise, the machines have to be moved to stable thermal power areas in Xinjiang. This move is not a small matter, with hundreds or thousands of mining machines needing to be disassembled, transported, and reassembled, which can easily take ten days to half a month. Can the computing power not temporarily drop? The fluctuations in computing power in October 2020 came from this.
Not to mention extreme weather and changes in local policies that can lead to sudden situations. For example, the Xinjiang pandemic in 2020 directly blocked the migration of mining machines, and electricity supply was also affected, amplifying the fluctuations in computing power. One can only say that it's not easy for miners to make money; they have to contend with the market while also watching the weather.
However, speaking of which, the Bitcoin network has long had a 'self-rescue artifact' difficulty adjustment mechanism.
This mechanism is simply the 'lifeline' for miners, adjusting the difficulty approximately every two weeks (every 2016 blocks) based on the overall network computing power situation. Did the computing power drop? No problem, the difficulty adjusts downward accordingly. This way, the remaining miners find it much easier to mine, and their earnings can recover a bit, stabilizing them to continue working and attracting those temporarily shut down miners back online. Ultimately, this is a smart self-balancing mechanism aimed at stabilizing the block time to around 10 minutes, ensuring the network operates normally.
Finally, let me say something practical: don't be alarmed by short-term fluctuations in computing power.
In the long run, the overall trend of Bitcoin's network computing power is always upward, driven by the increasing value of the network and advancements in mining machine technology. Short-term adjustments in computing power are actually the market's 'spring cleaning': eliminating inefficient machines and miners, allowing the remaining players to be more professional and better able to withstand risks, thus laying a good foundation for the next wave of computing power growth.
So the next time you see news of a sharp drop in computing power, don't rush to shout 'the bear market is coming' or 'the network is going down.' Think about it: are miners shutting down and moving again? Is the coin price being volatile again? Understanding the underlying mechanisms is much more useful than panicking blindly.
#巨鲸动向 $BTC
