Friends, just as the market was in a wailing frenzy, the on-chain world staged a stunning turnaround! A whale that once borrowed 66,000 ETH to short aggressively recently transformed, borrowing $85 million to storm into the exchange, wildly sweeping up 38,000 ETH. What signals are hidden behind this extreme operation of 'flipping from short to long'? Today, I will unveil the mystery for everyone.
1. The true script of the whale's 'betrayal'
The actions of this whale are not impulsive but filled with strategic 'slippery' art:
Precise time-space jumps: Looking back at early November, when BTC fell below $100,000 and the market was in extreme fear, this same '1011 insider whale' (who accurately profited $200 million by shorting before the crash in October) began to establish long positions, with a holding size of up to $104 million. This whale's action can be seen as a further increase in its long position.
The leveraged 'clear card' game: The whale borrowed 85 million USDC to buy ETH. It seems like a liquidity drain, but in fact, it reveals its core intention: willing to bear high borrowing costs to complete the position before the anticipated good news. This is similar to the behavior of the '7 Siblings' address cluster continuously borrowing 61 million USDC to buy 18,000 ETH since November.
Exchange inventory is 'urgent': Whales are withdrawing large amounts of coins from exchanges, exacerbating the supply tightening of ETH. As early as September, the ETH supply ratio on exchanges had dropped to a one-year low of 0.145, and this trend may further strengthen.
2. The underlying logic of the collective 'shift' of whales.
Not only this one whale, but the entire market's main capital is quietly reallocating.
Countdown to policy dividend: Before the end of 2025, the (CLARITY Act) is expected to be implemented, which will clarify the regulatory authority of Bitcoin and other commodities to the CFTC, eliminating the uncertainty brought by the SEC. This regulatory clarity is a key prerequisite for institutional entry, and whales are preparing in advance.
Expectations of a macro liquidity turning point: Despite the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut in December, Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal and others believe that after the end of the US government shutdown, large-scale spending by the Treasury may inject hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity into the market. The whales' 'buying with borrowed money' behavior is essentially a bet on liquidity easing.
The 'value depression' effect of altcoins: When Bitcoin fluctuated between $80,000 and $90,000, altcoins generally corrected by 15%-40%, and whales seized the opportunity to buy XRP, ADA, UNI, and other targets. For example, two major whale addresses for XRP collectively flowed in over $2.4 billion, and exchange balances hit a new low for 2023. ETH, as the 'benchmark asset' for altcoins, naturally became the core of whale allocation.
3. My opinion: Whales are not 'gods', but they are definitely 'smart money'.
Beware of the 'FOMO' trap: Whales also make mistakes. For example, at the beginning of November, a whale that cyclically borrowed to go long on WBTC was forcibly liquidated for $31.47 million, and a 'battle-tested' whale on Hyperliquid also lost over $30 million. Blindly following trends can easily make one cannon fodder in the whale's game.
The key signal lies in 'continuity': The actions of a single whale are not enough to reverse the trend; it is necessary to observe the resonance of on-chain data. For example, the group of whales holding 10K–100K BTC has increased their holdings by about 3% in the past 30 days, while the whale long-short ratio for ETH once reached 2.9 (bullish funds are three times bearish). Only if such data continues to strengthen can the direction be confirmed.
My strategic suggestions:
Short-term: Use whale movements as a sentiment indicator, but do not rely too heavily on them. Focus on whether ETH can hold key price levels (such as the $3,520 support emphasized in November).
Medium-term: Track policy developments (such as the voting on the (CLARITY Act)) and the actual release of macro liquidity (such as the Fed's interest rate meetings).
Long-term: Whales bet on the maturity of blockchain infrastructure, such as the ETH Blob upgrade that will promote Layer2 expansion, as well as trends like the tokenization of RWA (real-world assets). These are the fundamentals that support value.
Conclusion: The whales' 'short to long' switch is not a guarantee of a bull market, but a warning bell for a shift in market sentiment. In this market driven by policy, macro factors, and capital games, true alpha belongs to those who can see through the logic behind the whales' actions, rather than merely chasing their shadows.
I am your crypto analyst, Old Whale, focusing on on-chain data and macro strategies. Follow me.@币圈罗盘 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
