The mood of SOL investors these days, who have just added to their positions and then got stuck, is probably colder than a window leaking air in winter. The 'iron bottom' at $130 has been broken, and now the quote at $126 hangs on the board, like a dull punch to everyone's face. As an old pro who has been watching the market for 8 years, I dare say this drop is not a 'retracement trap', but a public lesson given by the market to all greedy individuals.
First, let's look at the current market: the current quote is $126.13, and the 0.18% slight increase during the day is purely 'zombie volatility', like the last twitch before a person faints. When you open the four-hour chart, you will find that the price is stuck in a narrow range between $125.81 and $126.42. This kind of extremely compressed movement is either the calm before the storm or the buildup before a crash. In a weak market structure, the latter is always more likely.
1. Technical indicators are flashing red: Three signals tell you where the danger lies
Don't just look at the price numbers; the indicators have already written the answers on their faces. As an analyst who chats with candle charts daily, I'll break down the key signals into plain language:
First is the Bollinger Bands' 'SOS signal': The price is like gum stuck to the lower band, unable to shake it off, and the bandwidth is getting narrower. This is like a person being cornered; the space for movement is getting smaller. Once they exert force, it will break through, but in a weak market, 'breaking through' is basically equivalent to 'plummeting downward.'
Now let's look at the MACD's 'whispers': The two lines, DIF and DEA, are intertwined below the zero axis. The green energy bars haven't suddenly thickened, but they haven't disappeared either, just like a light drizzle on a gloomy day. It may not seem heavy, but it can soak you through. This indicates that the bears haven't hit hard, but they also have no intention of letting go. Do the bulls want to counterattack? As of now, they haven't gathered enough strength.
The most crucial thing is the 'betrayal' of moving averages and support: If all short-term moving averages are broken, that's one thing, but the widely recognized 'psychological support' at $130 is surprisingly fragile, like a soda cracker. This is no longer a 'pullback,' but the 'turning signal' of the medium-term trend is beginning to flash red. Previously, I said $130 was a safety net; now I must correct that: this net has already been trampled.
2. New defense line highlights: Support and resistance have completely changed.
Old rules, let's get straight to the point with the table. The current support and resistance are completely different from a month ago. If you can't remember, it's advisable to take a screenshot.
Resistance level
Price range
Key explanation
First resistance
$128-129
Former support has become a 'roadblock'; rebounds are hard to break through
Key resistance
$130
Psychological barrier; if it doesn't stabilize, it remains weak
Strong resistance
$135
Multiple pressures overlapping, won't hit in the short term
Support level
Price range
Key explanation
Direct support
$125
Integer barrier; if it can't hold, look below
Last defense line
$121.70
Cycle low point; if broken, it completely turns bearish
Extreme situation
$110-115
If $121 is lost, the next target area
Let me insert a line: Trading volume is a 'mirror of truth.' The current low volatility, if accompanied by shrinking volume, indicates that everyone is 'lying flat and watching.' The real direction will only become clear when volume increases. If the volume suddenly expands when breaking below $125, don't hesitate; quickly reduce your positions. If it suddenly increases after shrinking near $125, that may be a short-term bottom signal.
3. My real trading strategy: Don't confront the market head-on; learn to 'borrow strength.'
As a practical trader who adjusts positions daily, I won't say cliches like 'long-term optimism means holding.' After breaking $130, the rules of the game have completely changed. My previous suggestion of 'building positions at $130-133' is now immediately invalid. The biggest taboo in investing is 'seeking a sword in a boat'; the market has changed, and strategies must change with it.
My viewpoint is very clear now: cautious and slightly bearish; protect your principal before discussing profits. The strategy will be given in three different scenarios; just match yourself to one:
1. For those with positions: Treat the range of $126-128 as an 'escape window', not an opportunity to add positions. If it rebounds to this range, decisively reduce your position. Don't think about waiting to break even at $130, the current $130 is not the same as the previous $130. The stop-loss line must be set at $121; if it breaks, cut your losses. Don't hold onto fantasies. I've seen too many people go from shallow losses to deep losses because they 'couldn't let go.'
2. For those without positions wanting to bottom fish: What is needed most now is 'patience,' not 'courage.' Either wait for the price to increase volume and stand back above $130 to prove that the previous break was a 'false move,' or wait for a 'long lower shadow' or 'morning star' type of daily stabilization signal in the $121-125 range. Before that, don't get itchy fingers; your money didn't come from the wind.
3. For those willing to take big risks: If SOL can form a 'double bottom' or 'head and shoulders bottom' pattern in the $121-125 range, combined with positive news from the ecosystem (like large projects launching, institutions entering), it could be this year's 'golden opportunity.' But remember, this is a high-risk gamble; positions must not exceed 10% of total funds, and beginners should avoid it.
Lastly, let me say something from the heart
The cryptocurrency market has always been 'specializing in defiance.' No matter how solid the support at $130 is, it can't withstand the collapse of market sentiment. But on the flip side, opportunities also lie within this panic. When others are cutting losses, as long as you don't mess up your operations, you've already won half the battle.
Now it's your turn: Is your SOL in a stop-loss position, or do you plan to hold on? If it drops to $121, will you bottom fish? Post your positions and strategies in the comments, and I will respond one by one. If you find this information useful, don't forget to like and follow @男神讲趋势 #加密市场观察 $BTC .
