#日本加息
Big reversal? The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is approaching, and a former senior official suddenly warns, "Don't be too anxious!"
On December 19, the countdown to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision begins! The market is almost certain: Polymarket data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December has soared to 98%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 2%. The world is holding its breath, waiting for Japan to say goodbye to the era of negative interest rates.
But at this critical moment, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Masayoshi Takeda, suddenly speaks out, dousing the market with a bucket of "cold water." He explicitly warns that the central bank should avoid premature interest rate hikes and excessive tightening, and must carefully assess the neutral interest rate level. However, he also leaves a "backdoor": if fiscal policy and economic growth strategies can increase the neutral interest rate, then a rate hike is naturally a reasonable option.
On one side is the market's nearly frenzied expectation of an interest rate hike, and on the other side is the "delay" signal released by the decision-makers. What game is the Bank of Japan playing? The contradiction behind this precisely reveals the core dilemma: Japan's economy has just emerged from the shadow of deflation, endogenous momentum is still weak, and the central bank wants to normalize monetary policy while fearing that a heavy hand will directly stifle the recovery.
Data does not lie, but the decision-makers' entanglement is written all over their faces. This meeting is not just about interest rate adjustments; it is also a psychological test for Japan to say goodbye to the era of "addiction to easing." Should they decisively turn according to market expectations, or hold firm and wait and see? The answer will be revealed on the 19th.
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What do you think? Will the Bank of Japan take a "hawkish" stance this time, or continue to be "dovish"? Let's discuss your predictions in the comments! 👇