When I was awakened by the market software's pop-up at three in the morning, I thought the Federal Reserve was launching another surprise attack. But upon closer inspection, it turned out that the news igniting the global market was something 'small enough to fit between teeth.' The temperament of this market is even harder to please than my cat, which just weaned; it flips the table at the slightest discomfort. Today, let's uncover the secrets behind this grand performance.
Let's review last night's 'thrilling moment': (Financial Times) a short message said that the institution Blue Owl does not intend to support Oracle's billion-dollar data center project. Just this one sentence directly caused Oracle's stock price to plummet by 5%, followed by a collective drop in U.S. stocks, with the Nasdaq falling by 1.8%. The AI sector, which had been hot for half a year, fared even worse, evaporating nearly 9% of its market value in a week. The most exciting part is still our crypto circle, where Bitcoin surged from 86,000 to 90,000 within minutes, only to crash down to 85,000. The stop-loss orders from both long and short positions exploded like they were worthless, and the quantitative traders in my social circle were all complaining, 'My fingers are pressing like rockets.'
I'm sure some friends will ask: Is it really that serious? It's just an institution withdrawing some capital? This question gets to the point; this drop is not panic at all, it’s the market’s 'trust filter' breaking. I've been in this industry for ten years, and I've never seen a sector like AI, which in the first half was a 'buy with closed eyes and make money' faith asset, become a risk asset in the second half where 'even the slightest disturbance gets sold off as a precaution.' Oracle later clarified that the partnership is not off, but the market doesn't care; current capital is no longer in the stage of listening to stories. What everyone is focusing on now are the financing leverage and capital expenditure loopholes behind AI. In a panic, these things are like infectious diseases, and no one wants to get infected. Previously, it was 'buy more as it drops'; now it's 'sell first and talk later, asking means you want to live long,' this shift in mindset is more lethal than any negative news.
What’s more concerning? It's that the 'supporting funds' have collectively gone invisible. Those who understand technical analysis know that the 50-day moving average is a key support level, like the market's 'safety net.' In the past, when indices fell to this level, there would always be funds coming in to buy the dip. But last night, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 directly 'broke the net,' showing no signs of a rebound. What does this indicate? Those large institutions that used to shout 'value investing' at every opportunity are now just spectators on the sidelines, unwilling to be the ones to catch the falling knife. This collective 'lying flat' attitude speaks more about the market's real temperature than any single piece of negative news.
To put it bluntly: the drop in AI stocks is a rational correction, while the 'chaos' in the crypto circle is the real risk. Although the AI sector is dropping sharply, at least there is logical support; the valuations are too high, and capital is retreating, which is a normal process of deflating a bubble. The 'rollercoaster' movement of Bitcoin last night was entirely due to leverage stepping on each other. I checked the data, and the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded 2 billion within an hour, many of which involved retail investors and small institutions using over 5x leverage. Such violent increases and decreases without fundamental support are essentially a 'casino model.' We regular investors should definitely avoid getting caught up in this frenzy and turning our positions into a 'zero-sum game.'
In fact, this wave of volatility has long been anticipated. I reminded everyone in the community the day before yesterday, 'There wasn't this much commotion on non-farm payroll day, so we should be more cautious on the upcoming regular trading days.' It's not that I have predictive powers, but the market's emotional cycles have patterns: when a sector shifts from 'storytelling' to 'performance', capital becomes extremely sensitive, and any slight negative news will be magnified. Right now, both the AI and crypto circles are in this transitional phase, and volatility will only increase.
Finally, a reminder for everyone: in the upcoming operations, don’t bet on emotions, focus on data. For AI, look at the actual revenue of leading companies; for crypto, monitor the changes in holdings of mainstream coins and regulatory dynamics. I will update institutional holding data and technical analysis charts in the community every day. Friends who were alerted about short positions last night should already be celebrating.
The market has always been about 'the survivors are kings.' Instead of chasing after rising and falling prices, understanding the thoughts of the capital is more important. Follow me @帝王说币 #ETH走势分析 $BTC
