This message is typical of Arthur Hayes's style:
Grand narrative + extreme target price + strong personal judgment.
But Old Stone puts the conclusion first:
What is truly valuable in this (Love Language) is not the 200,000 dollars, but his redefinition of QE.
1. What is Arthur Hayes saying? First, let's break down the logic cleanly.
The person speaking is very familiar to you:
Arthur Hayes
In the latest article (Love Language), he throws out a core judgment:
The RMP (Reserve Management Purchase) launched by the Federal Reserve is essentially equivalent to a 'new version of QE.'
His reasoning path is very straightforward:
1️⃣ RMP = Releasing liquidity back into the market
2️⃣ Liquidity release = Long-term devaluation expectation of currency rises
3️⃣ Currency devaluation = revaluation of scarce assets
4️⃣ BTC is the most direct beneficiary
Thus his price path is deduced:
Short-term:
👉 BTC fluctuating between 80,000 – 100,000 USD
After the cognitive turning point (the market accepts RMP = QE):
👉 Return to 124,000 USD
👉 And quickly impact 200,000 USD
Timing judgment:
👉 A phased emotional peak may occur around March next year
👉 Then a pullback, but the bottom is still likely above 124,000 USD
Second, is RMP really QE? This is the core controversy of the entire article
Here I must state a truth:
👉 This is an interpretation of “position first”, not a consensus conclusion.
Arthur Hayes' strength has never been policy details, but:
Capture the “direction of liquidity change”, then greatly amplify its asset impact.
The difference between RMP and traditional QE is:
QE:
👉 Directly expanding the balance sheet, buying long-term assets
RMP:
👉 More focused on the short end
👉 More operationally focused
👉 More emphasis on “system stability” rather than stimulating growth
But Arthur Hayes unifies them into one sentence:
“As long as you put money into the system, it is essentially QE.”
This is a highly provocative narrative, but very effective in the crypto circle.
Third, the question arises: If he really sees it this positively, why switch to ETH?
This is the most valuable detail of today's message.
Just yesterday:
Arthur Hayes
To Galaxy Digital
Transferred 508.647 ETH
Valued at approximately 1.5 million USD
Suspected sale
You need to look at these two actions together:
On the lips:
👉 QE has arrived, starting at BTC 124,000, with 200,000 in sight
In hand:
👉 During the rebound, first reduce a part of the position
What does this indicate?
He is not “betting the entire position on direction now”,
But rather “first tell the big narrative, then wait for the pullback.”
This precisely matches his judgment of short-term fluctuations between 80,000 and 100,000.
Fourth, does Arthur Hayes' view conflict with other signals today?
Not conflicting at all, even different sides of the same picture.
Take a look back at today's information flow:
Wintermute:
👉 BTC is locked at 86,000–92,000, waiting for options
Fundstrat:
👉 The first half of 2026 may still undergo significant pullbacks
Galaxy / Coinbase:
👉 2026 is a system year, not an emotional year
Arthur Hayes:
👉 The long liquidity cycle is on the rise, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable
Together, it is one sentence:
Long-term liquidity narrative is on the rise,
But in the short term, no one is willing to “jump the gun” for the market.
Fifth, Lao Shi's true judgment (not taking sides)
I won't shout long for you, nor sing short for him, I only provide you with a judgment framework:
1️⃣ RMP = QE conclusion,
Currently, it is more about “expected bets” from a crypto perspective, rather than established facts
2️⃣ BTC 124,000,
More like a “repricing anchor after liquidity is fully accepted by the market”
3️⃣ Arthur Hayes is shouting while selling ETH,
Indicates he himself does not believe it is currently a linear launch phase
4️⃣ The claim of the emotional peak in March,
And options / fiscal year / policy rhythm align
Sixth, here’s a very practical summary for you
Lao Shi only gives you one sentence, you can feel it yourself:
Arthur Hayes is not telling you to “buy immediately”,
But is telling you —
The real rise in the next round relies not on technical patterns,
But rather “the moment when liquidity is renamed.”
And before that:
👉 Fluctuations, washing people out, back and forth torment, that is the norm.$ETH
