Unlocking is never simply about 'will it drop'.
The real question is only one:
These chips were taken by the market,
Or will it be directly slammed out?
On December 22, according to Token Unlocks data, this week will see a round of centralized one-time unlocks, and the timing is extremely delicate——
Christmas low liquidity + interest rate cut expectation retreat + the fragility of clones.
1. First, let's lay it all out: this is not a small amount
🔹 Humanity (H)
Unlock time: December 25
Unlock quantity: 105.36 million pieces
Percentage of total supply: 4.79%
Value approximately: 15.62 million USD
🔹 Plasma (XPL)
Unlock time: December 25
Unlock quantity: 8889 ten thousand pieces
Accounted for total supply: 4.52%
Value approximately: 11.5 million US dollars
🔹 Jupiter (JUP)
Unlock time: December 28
Unlock quantity: 5347 ten thousand pieces
Accounted for total supply: 1.73%
Value approximately: 10.28 million US dollars
🔹 SOON (SOON)
Unlock time: December 23
Unlock quantity: 2188 ten thousand pieces
Accounted for total supply: 5.97%
Value approximately: 8.82 million US dollars
Putting it together, one sentence is enough:
In just one week, over 46 million US dollars of 'new circulating chips',
Directly implemented.
2. Why is this not an 'expectation', but 'real pressure'?
You need to distinguish between two completely different situations:
Linear unlocking: the market can digest
One-time cliff unlock: the market must express its stance
The problem this time is—
Almost all are one-time unlocks.
This means:
No time buffer
No emotional digestion period
The unlock day is the 'multiple choice question' of whether chips will be dumped
3. Break down one by one: who is most dangerous?
① Humanity (H): high unlock ratio + low liquidity during holidays
4.79% of total supply, released in one day
Just happens to be stuck on December 25
Market depth and transaction activity will decline
In this structure, there are only two outcomes:
The project party strongly controls circulation
Or—prices actively seek buying
👉 For short-term, this is a typical risk window.
② Plasma (XPL): the ratio is not small, but it tests 'absorption ability' more
Unlock ratio 4.52%
Value 11.5 million US dollars
There is only one core issue:
The average daily transaction volume in the past 7-14 days, can it withstand?
If daily transactions < half of unlock amount,
Then don't expect a 'smooth transition'.
③ Jupiter (JUP): the 'safest', but don't be complacent
JUP is the healthiest among the four structures:
Unlock ratio only 1.73%
Market cap large
Best liquidity
But pay attention to one sentence:
In the current environment of 'no macro support',
Even healthy projects are only 'falling a little less'.
JUP may not necessarily plummet,
But the probability of a spike and then a drop on the unlock day is not low.
④ SOON (SOON): the real landmine is here
Unlock ratio 5.97% (highest)
Market cap relatively small
Value close to 9 million US dollars
What is most likely to happen with this type of project?
👉 Prices fall ahead of time → Supplemental cut on unlock day → Liquidity vacuum
If you play short-term,
SOON type is only suitable for waiting for results, not for betting on the process.
4. Why is 'this week's unlock' more dangerous than usual?
It's not that the unlock itself has changed,
The environment has changed.
Put the background together:
The probability of interest rate cuts in January has fallen to 22%
FOMC new voting committee begins to adopt hawkish stance
BTC is consolidating, unable to 'suck blood' to support altcoins
The meme market is retreating, small coin contracts are frequently liquidated
Christmas week, trading volume naturally decreases
In this environment:
New supply ≠ neutral event,
But rather the process of actively seeking buying.
5. Give you an executable judgment framework
You don't need to guess whether the project party 'will dump',
You only need to look at three things:
1️⃣ Unlock amount / daily average transaction volume
2️⃣ Whether there is a preceding decline in the 7 days before unlocking
3️⃣ Whether there is a large volume on the day of unlocking but the price does not move
As long as two out of three are hit,
The conclusion is basically one:
The chips are in cashing out, not in layout. $JUP
