Behind the surface prosperity of the data, the unemployment rate has quietly climbed to a four-year high; this contradictory report looks more like a carefully packaged 'watered-down set meal.'
Last night, as the non-farm payroll data was released, the entire cryptocurrency circle instantly turned into a large guessing game. Looking at the impressive surface of 64,000 new jobs beating the expectation of 50,000, and then glancing at the cruel reality of the unemployment rate soaring to 4.6%, I couldn't help but laugh out loud; this is clearly another good show of 'data fighting against data.'
As a veteran who has experienced multiple bull and bear markets, I have long seen through the tricks behind these contradictory data. This is not proof of a strong economy, but a one-time technical rebound. True crypto players should have quietly started to lay out their strategies amid this chaos.
01 Is the data superficially impressive? Unpacking the 'true face' of non-farm payrolls
As I delved deeper into this non-farm report, I found some interesting details. First, the so-called 'better-than-expected' new jobs for November were actually based on a significant downward revision of 105,000 jobs in October's data.
It's like losing 100 yuan first and then finding back 60 yuan; it seems like a 'gain,' but in reality, you are still losing money. This kind of month-over-month improvement due to a poor prior value is fundamentally insufficient to demonstrate a truly strengthening employment market.
More importantly, the data from the past three months has been cumulatively revised down by 33,000. It's like a company having its financial reports for three consecutive quarters recalculated at the request of auditing firms; would you still fully trust the latest performance?
The issue of data distortion cannot be ignored. Due to the previous impact of the U.S. government shutdown, the unemployment rate data for October has historically been missing, and the weights of the household survey for November have also been forced to adjust. The authorities even admitted that there were abnormally high short-term fluctuations in the data during this period. This means that what we see may not be the true state of the employment market.
02 Contradictions abound, the employment market is already at its 'last gasp'
Upon deeper observation of this report, I discovered several obvious contradictions, which reveal the superficial strength of the employment market.
The divergence between the unemployment rate and new jobs: when the unemployment rate rises to 4.6% (a four-year high) simultaneously with new jobs exceeding expectations, it itself is a signal of confusion. This situation usually indicates a change in labor force participation or a deviation in statistical standards.
The employment structure is extremely distorted: looking closely at the industry distribution, the healthcare sector alone contributed 64,000 jobs, almost encompassing all growth. This reliance on growth from a single industry raises questions about sustainability; once healthcare recruitment saturates, overall employment growth may quickly stall.
The most critical evidence is the lack of wage growth: data shows that hourly wage growth month-over-month is only 0.1%, and the annualized growth rate over three months is just 3.1%. Wages are the core driver of consumption, and slowing wage growth means inflationary pressures are indeed easing, while also suggesting that companies are unwilling to pay a higher premium for labor, maintaining a cautious outlook on economic prospects.
These contradictions point to the same conclusion: the current resilience of the employment market is fabricated, and it has already reached its last gasp.
03 Market reaction truth, funds vote with their feet
After the data was released, the reaction of the financial markets was quite telling. Bitcoin quickly fell back after briefly rising to $88,000, ultimately oscillating between $87,000 and $88,000. This 'rise and fall' trend indicates that smart funds do not buy into this superficially impressive report.
In traditional markets, despite non-farm data exceeding expectations, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% and the Dow Jones down about 276 points. This divergence further confirms the market's concerns about economic prospects.
At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields are declining, and the dollar index is slightly weakening. Market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 have instead heated up, with interest rate futures still predicting two rate cuts in 2026, with an expected easing of 58 basis points next year. This indicates that the bond market has understood the true implications of the data: the economy is not that strong, and the Federal Reserve still needs to cut rates.
The performance of the crude oil market is more intuitive, with U.S. WTI crude oil prices falling below $55 per barrel, reaching the lowest level since early 2021. The sharp drop in commodity prices, which serve as a barometer for the economy, further corroborates the current weakness in global demand.
04 Impact of the crypto market, short-term disturbances and long-term trends
For the crypto market, this non-farm report will create short-term emotional disturbances but will not change the long-term trend.
In the short term, Bitcoin's key support level is at $86,000, which is a watershed for bulls and bears. If it breaks down, it may dip to the $85,500 or even $83,800 region. The resistance level above is in the $88,500-$90,000 range.
Ethereum's performance is even weaker, with the psychological barrier of $3,000 having shifted from support to resistance. The current price is receiving weak support around $2,900, but this is more of a technical pause after a sharp decline rather than a reversal signal.
It is noteworthy that in times of retail panic, the behavior of whales and institutions shows a significant divergence. Whales borrowed $85 million in USDT to bottom-fish $119 million worth of Ethereum during the market crash. Such movements of 'smart money' are often forward-looking.
In the long run, Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve may repeat its 'policy surrender' in 2026, being forced to start a rate-cutting cycle, with Bitcoin and two other asset classes benefitting the most. This macro background is overall favorable for the crypto market.
05 Trader strategy, how to cope with this 'noisy market'
In such a noisy market environment, my personal strategy is:
Reduce leverage to avoid becoming a victim of volatility. After the non-farm data release, market liquidity tends to thin out, which may lead to extreme magnification of volatility. High-leverage trading in such an environment is akin to suicide.
Focus on key breakout levels rather than predicting direction. The safest approach is to wait for key price levels to be tested and for the market's reaction to align with the breakout direction before taking action. In the current environment, the probability of false breakouts is very high.
Seize sector rotation opportunities. When Bitcoin and Ethereum are in oscillation, some mainstream altcoins like BNB, XRP, and SUI may perform relatively strongly. However, this operation requires stronger risk control and timely profit-taking and stop-loss capabilities.
Most importantly, maintain patience. During periods of volatility led by central bank policies, liquidity can suddenly reverse, making position management and stop-loss discipline more important than the pursuit of profits. The market will always give you a second chance, provided you survive the first storm.
As night falls, the crypto market has temporarily returned to calm. But I know this is just the calm before the storm. Bitcoin struggles around $86,000, while Ethereum hovers around the $2,900 mark, with both bulls and bears waiting for the next catalyst.
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, the decisions on interest rates by the Bank of Japan, speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and subsequent inflation data will all become sources of market volatility. But the real smart money has already begun to position for the 2026 rate cut cycle. When the Federal Reserve is ultimately forced into 'policy surrender,' Bitcoin will become one of the biggest beneficiaries.
So, don't get distracted by short-term data. Bull markets are not achieved overnight; they are born out of despair and rise in hesitation.
(The views in this article are solely personal market analyses and do not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves risks, and caution is required when entering the market.)
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