The main players are playing a big game, and my operational strategy is fully disclosed.
The market is eerily silent, as if it is the calm before the storm. As a veteran in crypto, I smell a familiar scent; this is not the end of the market, but a maze set up by the main players.
Recently, Ethereum has been fluctuating around 2980 USD, with the psychological barrier at 3000 above and the support range at 2880-2900 below.
This grinding market has made many retail investors start to doubt life. But I want to tell you, the main players are never guessing ups and downs, but are managing 'expectations' and 'timing'. While Wall Street bigwigs are singing bearish to 1800, institutions are continuously accumulating.
The real show has just begun.
01 Underlying currents in the news, the main players are 'saying one thing and doing another'
Recent market news can be described as ice and fire. On the surface, institutions have released rumors that 'prices may drop to $1800-$2000 in 2026', which gives long-term investors an expectation of 'waiting for lower points'.
But if you only focus on these surface-level articles, you are just falling into the main players' trap.
Smart money is quietly moving. In the past few days, although market sentiment is cautious, on-chain data shows that exchange reserves are decreasing, indicating that the number of tokens available for immediate sale is shrinking. This is not a signal for selling, but rather that assets are being transferred from exchanges to long-term storage wallets.
What’s more noteworthy is that, despite the outflow of funds from ETFs, institutions' long-term interest in Ethereum has not diminished. This phenomenon of apparent fund outflow coexisting with long-term optimism is a typical characteristic of the market in a consolidation phase.
02 Technical signals are contradictory, full analysis of key positions
From a technical perspective, Ethereum is currently at a crossroads that must choose a direction.
Resistance above: $3000 is a psychological barrier and also a hurdle that has been hard to overcome recently. If it can break through and stabilize, the next resistance level is around $3080-$3100.
Support below: The 2880-2900 dollar range is a strong support recently; if it breaks, it may probe down to $2750 or even $2500.
Technical indicators are sending contradictory signals: on the one hand, the short-term trend remains weak; on the other hand, downward momentum seems to be weakening. This technical contradiction precisely reflects the current hesitation in the market.
03 What exactly is the main player calculating? My exclusive interpretation
Based on years of market experience, I believe the main intention of the major players is:
Washing out indecisive holders. The repeated oscillation below $3000 aims to make retail investors lose patience and confidence, handing over their chips. This is a typical 'washing' strategy.
Building momentum for the next wave of market movement. The open interest in Ethereum remains high, indicating that large funds have not exited but are waiting for the right moment. Once the market direction is clear, it may trigger violent price fluctuations.
Collecting chips by utilizing time differences. Major institutions are well aware of Ethereum's long-term value, but during the window before the end of the interest rate hike cycle, they hope to build positions at more favorable prices.
The core of this strategy is 'using time to exchange for space' by extending the oscillation period, lowering the cost of building positions, and leaving ample space for subsequent rises.
04 My personal trading strategy sharing
In the face of this market condition, my strategy is 'both cautious and greedy':
For those with positions, I recommend staying patient and not easily shaken out. Key observation is the defense of the 2880-2900 support range. As long as this area is not effectively broken, the medium to long-term positive pattern remains unchanged.
For those without positions, the current oscillation range precisely provides opportunities for gradual position building. My personal strategy is to lightly position in the 2880-2930 range, and if it retraces to the 2750-2800 area, I will increase my position.
Key action points: If the price stabilizes above $3000, consider increasing positions, with a short-term target of $3100; if it effectively drops below $2870, caution is required, as it may probe down to $2750.
Currently, I am controlling my position at around 60%, leaving enough cash to deal with possible fluctuations. Maintaining flexibility is more important than fully betting before the market clearly chooses a direction.
The market always brews changes when everyone hesitates. I remember during the winter of 2022, I told everyone in the chat room that 'bull markets are born in despair'; those who dared to bottom out around $1000 have now reaped substantial returns.
The current grinding market is precisely a test of our patience and faith. If you also feel that real-time analysis and communication are needed in this market, feel free to follow me@Square-Creator-6986d8cbf781f #美国非农数据超预期 $BTC
