Recently, the backend has been flooded with questions: "Teacher, can we bottom-fish Bitcoin now?" "It's dropped so much, isn't it time for a rebound?" Today, I will share my heartfelt thoughts on the market outlook: after darkness, there is indeed dawn, but the night is still long, and those who are eager to bottom-fish are just "sending their heads to the guillotine!"
First, let me dampen your spirits: market analyst Damian Chmiel's forecast is quite pessimistic: if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger even crazier sell-offs, with the next target being the April low of $74,000. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has effectively broken below the key support range of $86,000 - $87,000, and now $85,000 is the mid-term "lifeline". If it confirms a breakdown on the daily chart, a new round of stop-loss orders will be triggered, and it is highly likely to drop to the $78,000 - $80,000 range.
Of course, there is also good news. K33 Research believes that the selling pressure from long-term holders is nearing saturation. About 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated over the past two years, and it is expected that the selling from investors will decrease in early 2026. But you must remember, this is just a 'long-term benefit'. In the short term, the problems in the market have not been resolved: high leverage, long-term holders exiting, and insufficient new capital inflow are all swords of Damocles hanging over us.
What’s more dangerous is that the long positions on trading platforms currently account for 87%, and most people are still betting on a rebound. As an analyst, I have seen too many of these one-sided markets, which ultimately end in a crash. The core issue now is not to predict the bottom but to control positions and retain ammunition, waiting for market sentiment to stabilize and clear trend signals to appear.
Want to know how to judge trend signals and how to reasonably control your position? Follow me, I will release a detailed (survival guide for the crypto market) tomorrow, teaching you step by step how to survive and make money in a volatile market! If you currently feel helpless and confused in trading, and want to learn more about the cryptocurrency world and cutting-edge information, follow me@标哥说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC
