I have a heart-wrenching question: Do you feel frustrated staring at the U.S. stock market candlesticks every day while trading cryptocurrencies? When the market rises, you can't keep up with the pace; when it falls, you are faster than anyone else. This isn't called investing; it's called being a 'follower' to the U.S. stock market! But today, I dare to say: Hold on! A relatively independent market trend is really coming, and the signals have already been hidden in the flow of funds!
As an experienced player who has been immersed in the market for many years, let me share some core insights— the funds in the crypto market are no longer a unified whole; they are clearly divided into two groups: one group consists of 'on-site veterans' who have been struggling in the market, with scattered but sticky funds; the other group consists of 'traditional funds newcomers' who enter the market with 'cash capability.' The characteristic of this group is: they rush wherever there is money to be made, and their scale has increased by more than one order of magnitude compared to the previous cycle.
To put it bluntly, the 'harvesting script' of this cycle is actually very simple: after traditional funds with large capital advantages came in, they directly tied the on-site funds to the U.S. stock market, forming a high correlation. Then, relying on this 'binding effect,' they repeatedly harvested the veterans in the market, after all, the amount of individual investors' funds and the information gap are simply not enough in front of large capital. I have seen too many friends who were cut off in this wave, doubting life, asking me every day, 'Is it time to leave the market?'
But here comes the key point! The script is about to turn! As the harvestable space for on-site funds gets smaller and smaller, these 'wealth-seeking' traditional funds have already started to withdraw systematically — after all, their goal is to pursue higher profits, and since the crypto market has run out of juice, they naturally have to move on to the next track.
As for the landmark event, in my view, the previous token issuance linked to Trump was a clear 'signal light for fund shifting.' Before this, traditional funds were continuously pouring in; but once this token was released, after the initial heat, the inflow of off-site funds visibly slowed down. This is not a coincidence, but a 'signal' indicating that big capital is leaving.
Some may argue: 'If traditional funds leave, won't the market cool down?' This statement is only half correct. To be honest, without this round of 'blood transfusion' from traditional funds, the crypto market would not have reached today’s scale. We on-site players are both the targets of the harvest and have indeed benefited from this wave of capital dividends; this must be objectively acknowledged.
Back to the original question: if core cryptocurrencies continue to rise with the U.S. stock market, maintaining such a high correlation, would you still want to stay in this market? Personally, I would not — following the rhythm of others means you can only sip the soup, and you might not even get the soup.
I have always emphasized: the excess profits in the crypto market are never generated from 'following the ups and downs.' It is precisely during the divergence periods when the U.S. stock market rises and it does not, or when the U.S. stock market falls and it does not, or when it completely breaks out of an independent trend, that the real opportunities to make big money arise. At this point, it’s all about who can see the flow of funds in advance and who can be patient and wait for opportunities.
Lastly, a heartfelt statement: the market is indeed in a consolidation period now, and many people are quite confused. But the more confused you are, the more you need to grasp the core logic — the departure of traditional funds is not the end, but the beginning of the market returning to its own rhythm. I will continue to monitor the flow of funds and key signals, sharing my analysis and judgments with everyone at the first opportunity.
If you think what I said makes sense, don’t forget to follow me. If you currently feel helpless and confused in trading, and want to learn more about cryptocurrency-related knowledge and the latest information, follow me @标哥说币 #巨鲸动向 $BTC .
