Brothers, ETH is up to something again! It surged 1.15% in 5 minutes, and the trading software instantly issued a warning. The community exploded in excitement, with all kinds of statements about the 'bull market starting' flying around. But I advise you to stay calm. As someone who has been in the crypto space for 8 years and seen countless instances of 'lightning surges followed by lightning crashes,' I responsibly tell you: don't be fooled by this superficial increase! What truly determines ETH's future trajectory is not this 5-minute surge, but rather 3 details that most people overlook. Today, I will reveal my in-depth analysis to help you see through the essence of this market trend.
First detail: Did this wave of increase break through the key resistance level? Many people only see the increase but do not pay attention to the price level. The highest point of ETH's recent surge is 2865, which happens to be a dense trading area from earlier, also known as a key resistance level. From the order book, in the range of 2860 to 2865, there are nearly 50 million ETH sell orders hanging, which means that to continue rising, there must be enough capital to consume these sell orders. Although today's surge had increased volume, it did not fully break through this resistance level, only touching it before slightly retreating, indicating that the bulls currently lack the ability to decisively conquer this challenge. This is a very critical signal—if there is no volume breakout above 2865 later, then this wave of increase is likely just 'baiting', and the probability of retracement is extremely high.
Second detail: During the upward movement, was there any 'fake trading'? In the crypto market, major players often use 'fake trading' to create the illusion of a price rise, for example, by placing buy orders and then consuming them themselves, making the trading volume appear large and attracting retail investors to chase the price up. How can we determine if it is fake trading? By looking at the transaction details. In today's surge, most of the transaction details consist of 'active buy orders', meaning retail or institutional investors actively consumed sell orders, rather than 'passive transactions' (where major players buy and sell to themselves). Moreover, most of these active buy orders range between 100,000 to 500,000 USD, not the kind of massive orders worth millions of dollars that typically cause price drops, indicating that real market demand is driving the rise, not manipulation by major players. This is a positive signal, suggesting that the market's recognition of ETH is increasing.
Third detail: Does the macro environment support ETH's continuous rise? The crypto market has never existed independently; the slightest change in the macro environment can affect its trajectory. Recently, the expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have softened, and the market generally predicts that rate cuts may begin in March next year, which is a significant positive for risk assets. However, we must also note that the current inflation data in the U.S. has not fully stabilized. If inflation rebounds later, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy again, which would put downward pressure on ETH. Additionally, recent signs indicate that regulatory policies in major global economies are loosening, which is beneficial for the long-term development of the crypto market, but in the short term, the uncertainty of regulation still exists.
Considering these three details, my view is: In the short term, ETH may fluctuate between 2820 and 2865, waiting for a clear direction; in the long term, if it can break through the key resistance level of 2865 and the macro environment continues to improve, then it is expected to challenge the range of 2900 to 2950; however, if it cannot break through the resistance level, or if the macro environment worsens, then the probability of retracement to the range of 2750 to 2800 is quite high.
Many friends have told me that trading cryptocurrencies feels like a roller coaster, and their hearts can’t take it. What I want to say is that the core of trading cryptocurrencies is 'going with the trend', not 'guessing ups and downs'. Rather than focusing anxiously on the 5-minute price movements every day, it's better to take a longer view and pay attention to the core factors that truly determine asset value. For example, the ecological development of ETH, the implementation of Layer 2, the trend of institutional capital inflow, etc. These are the fundamental drivers supporting ETH's long-term rise.
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