风雨行军团

Just now I heard the sound of children reading aloud, "Study hard, when you grow up, build the motherland...". Looking back now, as an ordinary person, no matter how hard I try, I am still just an ordinary person. Of course, ordinary people are also different from each other.
As for myself, after nine years of compulsory education, I felt like I was trying my hardest during high school. During the college entrance examination, the pressure was so great that I couldn't sleep and woke up several times in the middle of the night. At that time, I felt that the college entrance examination could determine my life; it was the most important exam of my life. After the exam ended, I felt a bit dizzy and disoriented, but no matter what, I finally finished. When the exam results came out, I felt that the results were not very satisfactory, and the thought of having to retake the exam filled me with fear and reluctance. At that moment, I truly felt that studying was too hard. Seeing my own child having to go through this tough process like I did back then, I felt resistant. However, not studying is not an option; we all know this is the only fair and pure competitive path. So, even if I become a salted fish, I must strive to complete nine years of compulsory education.

Today, Kweichow Moutai was affected by the "control policy", gapping up at the open; although it closed with a gain, it formed a large bearish candle, ending a three-day streak of gains. The stock king has fallen from its peak of 2437 in 2021, down for 5 years, with a decline of over 40%, almost halving in value. Although there aren't many retail investors involved, they are mainly resilient value investors huddling together for warmth, but the 5-year decline is indeed quite terrifying.
First, let's talk about the "control policy" of the stock king. Short-term measures: by December 2025, all Moutai products will stop being distributed to dealers to alleviate their burden during the tight financial period at the end of the year and to prevent panic selling. Mid to long-term reform: plans to significantly reduce the quotas for non-standard products like zodiac wine and vintage wine in 2026, reducing the supply of products that drag down channel profits from the source. Future increments will focus on the three core products: Feitian Moutai, Moutai 1935, and premium Moutai, to stabilize the mainstream price range.

Yesterday, the real estate sector welcomed a long-awaited surge, with a single-day intensity being the highest in nearly six months. The real estate development sector closed with an increase of about 2%, ranking among the top of the industry gains. Leading stocks: Vanke A closed its board in 5 minutes, with a total transaction amount exceeding 3.2 billion yuan, creating the largest single-day increase of the year.
On December 11, the A-share real estate sector as a whole declined, becoming one of the industries with the largest drop that day. In terms of indices: The CSI All Share Real Estate Index, after soaring 2.32% on the previous trading day, pulled back about -1.2% that day. The net outflow of main funds in the real estate sector exceeded 2 billion yuan in a single day, ranking among the top of all industries, with Vanke down 3.43%. The real estate sector showed a rapid reversal characteristic after a 'one-day tour' on December 11.

Recently, the issue of interest rate cuts has drawn everyone's attention to the candidates for the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. The current Chairman, Jerome H. Powell, was officially sworn in on May 23, 2022, beginning his second four-year term. During his first four years in office, he was also nominated by Trump, and there have been frequent reports that Powell does not heed Trump's orders for interest rate cuts. This time, it is expected that Trump will choose someone more compliant. Trump's term ends on January 20, 2025, which means that if a Chairman who listens to the President is elected, they could serve President Trump for two and a half years.

A-shares are like the unliftable A Dou; the market looked a bit better yesterday, but today it has soured again, yet the Fujian sector remains strong.
In December 2025, the Fujian sector will surge, a result of the resonance of policy dividends, industrial support, and capital inflow, with specific reasons as follows:

1. Intensive policies are forming a core driving force: The '14th Five-Year Plan' of Fujian and its subordinate cities like Xiamen and Quanzhou focuses on cross-strait integration, clearly promoting projects such as water, electricity, gas, and bridge connectivity between Xiamen and Kinmen. Xiamen has also proposed supporting Kinmen to share the Xiang'an International Airport, bringing value reassessment space for port and infrastructure companies. At the same time, Fujian has issued measures for the development of computing power facilities, aiming for public computing power to reach 12 EFLOPS by 2027 and upgrading submarine cables to explore computing power overseas; Xiamen is also planning to build a special economic zone with free port characteristics to create a trillion-level industrial cluster. These policies are all favorable for corresponding individual stocks in their respective fields. Additionally, the new policies released in December to benefit Taiwan provide support in terms of land use, taxes, and fees, further boosting market expectations.

Today, the A-share market rose and then fell back, closing with a positive line, and has already made up for the gaps from the past few days. The overall market looks okay. Personally, I speculate that there should be a cross-year market this year, and it is unlikely to drop significantly.
The A-share 'cross-year market' (generally referring to the phase of rising that occurs from December to around the Spring Festival of the following year) is not something that only happens in certain years; rather, it has almost occurred 'every year since 2005', although the starting points and magnitudes of the rises vary significantly. Based on statistics from teams such as Haitong, Industrial Bank, Fortune, and Northeast, the years that have shown a significant cross-year market can be divided into two categories.

Last night I had a dream, I dreamt that my deceased father came back to life. The reason was that his original body was tormented by cancer and could not be repaired, then he revived using his own doppelgänger. Under the wooden door's threshold, my father's doppelgänger began to have warmth, then his fingers could move slightly, he opened his eyes, and I handed him a glass of water to drink, just like when he was critically ill in the ICU, when the doctor said he couldn't drink water, I still brought a cup for him to drink. Everything felt so real, but after waking up, I realized it was just a dream.
When I was young, the conditions at home were not good, I started herding cattle at the age of 5, but my father's heartfelt wish was for my siblings and me to go to school together and attend university. This was my father's requirement for us. As a result, my siblings and I managed to get into college, rolling and crawling our way through. I feel that studying requires a bit of talent; I find mathematics easy to learn, while my younger sister is self-taught in language arts.

Btc is like a madman. Before last night, the entire cryptocurrency market was under the shadow of a plummeting trend, and suddenly, last night, it took off, causing a scary sound. If one were to analyze it, they could say something like 123.
1. On December 1st, Strategy, the largest corporate holder with 650,000 bitcoins, experienced a sudden drop of over 12% during trading, with its market value plummeting to around $45 billion, lower than its net asset value of bitcoins (approximately $48.4 billion). Prior to this, Strategy's CEO Phong Le publicly stated for the first time that under certain conditions, the company 'might sell part of its held bitcoins.' This statement was perceived by the market as breaking the long-standing 'never sell' promise made by the company's founder, signaling a potential large-scale sell-off.

After silver hit a historic high last night, it slightly corrected today. Let me talk about my personal operation. If at this moment, I am optimistic about the continued upward potential of silver, I would directly buy high and hold, set a stop-loss point, and make a single trade. Once I bet correctly, I will hold on until it breaks below the MA30 and take profits. If it corrects to the stop-loss line, I can only cut losses and exit. This is my operational strategy.
The reasons for the rise are probably a few points.
1. Supply-demand gap. The global silver market has been in short supply for five consecutive years, with industrial demand surging from solar energy, electric vehicles, and other sectors (for example, the silver consumption per electric vehicle can reach 25-50 grams, and solid-state battery technology may increase to 1 kilogram), while mineral production growth is limited and inventories are at historically low levels.

The "drug use record will be sealed" has become one of the hottest legal topics on social media, with the key to igniting public opinion being the newly revised Article 136 of the Public Security Administration Punishment Law: starting from January 1, 2026, all public security violations that do not constitute a crime (including administrative detention for drug use) will be uniformly sealed. Except for the case-handling authorities or legally authorized employers, no individual, enterprise, or platform will be able to access this "stain."
This message addresses the issue of over 8 million people each year being left with public records due to various public security penalties, resulting in "secondary punishment" in employment, credit, and children's education, which constitutes a systematic infringement of personal rights and privacy rights.

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, also the first female Prime Minister of Japan in over 140 years. She has drawn attention in international public opinion due to her hardline right-wing stance and recent controversial remarks that have strained Japan-China relations.
Sanae Takaichi is an extreme right-wing figure within the Liberal Democratic Party, who has long denied historical facts such as the Nanjing Massacre and comfort women, advocates for amending Article 9 of the pacifist constitution to elevate the Self-Defense Forces to a 'National Defense Army', and promotes the 'normalization of Japan as a nation'. She was a close confidante of Shinzo Abe and is seen as the successor to the 'Abe Line'.
On November 7, Takaichi Sanae claimed during a parliamentary response that 'there is a situation in Taiwan' that could constitute a 'survival crisis' allowing Japan to exercise collective self-defense, implying that Japan may militarily intervene in the Taiwan conflict. She is the first sitting Prime Minister in post-war Japan to publicly link the Taiwan issue directly to Japan's security, which has been strongly condemned by China as a serious violation of the One China principle and the spirit of the four political documents between China and Japan.

On November 26, 2025, a level 5 fire broke out at the Hong Fuk Court in Tai Po, Hong Kong. This fire has resulted in 44 fatalities and is one of the most serious fires in Hong Kong in nearly 60 years. The fire situation is now basically under control, and relevant investigations and follow-up work are underway. The specific situation is as follows:

1. Fire development: At 14:51 on November 26, the Fire Services Department received a report of a fire. When firefighters arrived on the scene at 14:56, the scaffolding outside the building was already on fire and spreading rapidly. The fire alarm was upgraded to level 3 and then level 4, eventually reaching level 5 at 18:22. Affected by flammable exterior wall materials and wind, the fire affected 7 out of 8 buildings. As of the morning of the 27th, 3 buildings were still dealing with fire alarms, and firefighters expect rescue operations to last at least until the evening of the 27th.

BTC has been rising very well recently. After a small bull run, I thought it had peaked, but unexpectedly, after dropping to 98,000, it quickly surged again, then slightly declined. Just after breaking the 30-day moving average, it surged again and has recently reached new historical highs. As a speculator, I can't keep stubbornly holding onto short positions. So on Saturday, I took advantage of the pullback, admitted defeat, closed my shorts, and flipped to going long. This bull market is unimaginable; the main thing is that since the bull market started in October 2023, it has been almost two years. A while ago, when BTC dropped below 8,000, I thought it had reached the end, but it unexpectedly continued to reach new historical highs. I guess that in a situation where we all don't believe the bull market will continue, another wave of the bull market is coming. Since it’s a bull market, the best approach is to hold positions steady; going short is like looking for death. Of course, going long doesn't necessarily mean guaranteed profits. If you have absolute confidence, you could directly invest 100 times the amount and become financially free immediately. Bull markets also have pullbacks. In this major bull run of BTC, it has repeatedly dropped below the 30-day moving average and then surged again. Speculators like me will definitely get thrown off the ride; there’s no way to avoid the risks of profit and loss. So those who have held BTC until today must have kept it in cold wallets, completely indifferent to whether it goes to zero or becomes rich. If it goes to zero, so be it; if it becomes rich, that would be a pleasant surprise. This major BTC bull market is primarily due to the push from the beautiful country, with the legal introduction of ETFs into BTC, which has truly opened the floodgates for large-scale capital inflow, especially now that Trump is supporting virtual currencies, allowing BTC to reach unprecedented heights. Currently, there are no trapped positions above BTC; it's completely empty above, and no one knows how much it will rise. Of course, the incoming capital must also be limited. Previously, institutions predicted that BTC's peak today would be 116,000 dollars, which underestimated BTC. In the past, when BTC broke through the previous highs, there was always some profit to be made, so let’s see if we can get a little taste this time.

Recently, I looked at posts from friends in the currency community on Binance, and most of the leveraged trades start at 75 times, with most at 100 times. There are small orders of a few dollars, medium orders of hundreds to thousands of dollars, and large orders worth tens of thousands of dollars. The crypto world is indeed too crazy; it’s either going to zero or making a fortune, but playing like this is truly a bad strategy. Even if we gamble at a casino, the best approach is to play small bets slowly; this way, even if you lose, you can keep playing. The key is being able to continue playing after a loss. I once played a simulated trading game at 100 times leverage and even won; that feeling was indeed great, but it was only on a simulated account. I wouldn’t dare play like that with real money. Otherwise, the likelihood of being liquidated is very high.

During this period, I wanted to take trades, so I engaged in short-term contracts, using 5x leverage, which is indeed exhausting. Moreover, I don't know whether it will rise or fall in the next second, I just go with the feeling. Overall, it’s okay; at least I'm still making a profit for now. But this is really dangerous. No matter how good the technology is, there’s always a risk of losing. Currently, my 5x ETH short position is still open. I initially wanted to be steady and switched to a 1x short position in BTC, but after playing with high leverage, I couldn’t resist the slow movements. When ETH surged by 4.3% last night, I entered the short position. As a result, it rose by over 8 points at its peak, trapping me. Last night’s market made me worried about liquidation, and I didn't sleep well. I originally wanted to cut losses, but when I saw Bitcoin at 110,000 dollars, I thought, what do I have to fear? I just hope Bitcoin doesn’t set a new high. Now I’m betting on a decline, feeling a bit like when I bought Bitcoin back when it was over 3,000 dollars. This year, whether it's profits or losses will depend on this. Because the risks with contracts are indeed too high, I have closed the trading projects and am just playing myself. Of course, even if I didn't close them, no one would trade with me. I think 5x leverage is already quite high, but in the trading project, my earnings are indeed trivial, so I can't carry it. It’s really unmanageable. However, after this round of short-term contracts, perhaps it’s luck, overall it feels good. Let’s see what happens in the end when I stop playing.

I also worked in Shenzhen for two years before. At first, after graduating from university, I wanted to earn more money. I finished my third year and started working in Shenzhen during my fourth year. Initially, I chose Shenzhen without hesitation because my relatives and friends were there, so I had a place to stay. While I was looking for a job, I stayed at my uncle's place for a while. I was in Longgang, and after about a month, I found a job in the technology park. The salary was quite high; I remember one of my classmates earned only 2600 yuan a month while I earned 5100, plus 15 yuan for overtime at night. When I first joined the company, everyone understood that as a newcomer, I was one of those who worked the hardest, so with overtime, my monthly salary was nearly 6000. However, I had to work too many hours; I basically returned to the dormitory after 11 PM every night, and sometimes even worked overnight, which was indeed very exhausting.