加密货币宏观
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⚡️$ETH $BTC $ASTER Federal Reserve FOMC meeting sets the tone tonight! The threshold for interest rate cuts has soared, with a potential pause in January, and the crypto market needs to be wary of volatility.
According to Jinshi reports, multiple top institutions have conducted in-depth analysis of the signals from tonight's FOMC meeting, with the core conclusion pointing to the fact that while interest rate cuts are possible, the threshold is far beyond expectations. The market's previous fantasies of easing may face a "dimensionality reduction strike" 👇
1️⃣ 🗳️ Voting divisions break the fantasy of continuous rate cuts
For the first time, there is internal disagreement on rate cuts within the FOMC, with completely asynchronous judgments on inflation and the economy. This means that the market's bets on "continuous rate cuts" are severely overstretched. The greater the divergence, the harder it will be for Powell to release clear dovish signals, making the policy direction more ambiguous.
2️⃣ 🦅 Barclays warns: January may pause rate cuts
Institutions predict that the policy statement will include hawkish language, likely ending the rhythm of "rate cuts every time" after December. This will directly compress the market's pricing space for future monetary easing, putting direct pressure on risk assets.
3️⃣ 📉 JPMorgan: The core of rate cuts shifts to "magnitude and timing"
Policy language will focus on "adjustment magnitude and timing," essentially weakening the probability of rate cuts—statements of "slowing the pace + not committing to a path" will inevitably trigger severe short-term fluctuations in the market, with the crypto market also unlikely to remain unscathed.
4️⃣ 🎙️ Powell will raise the threshold for rate cuts, difficult to cut quickly before 2026
Powell is likely to be "hawkish in words, actually hawkish" tonight: he will neither directly release hawkish guidance to scare off the market nor commit to continued rate cuts, instead emphasizing that the threshold for rate cuts before 2026 is extremely high, suggesting a pause in the short term. This is a typical "moderate hawkish" operation.
💡 Summary in one sentence
The dovish signals that the market expected tonight have largely fallen flat, with internal divisions in the FOMC + hawkish statements + Powell raising thresholds, already forming a strong signal to cool the pace of rate cuts. The crypto market needs to be cautious of the risks of a correction brought about by tightening liquidity expectations!
#美联储议息 #加密货币宏观 #山寨季将至？ #ETH走势分析 #牛市到来
According to Jinshi reports, multiple top institutions have conducted in-depth analysis of the signals from tonight's FOMC meeting, with the core conclusion pointing to the fact that while interest rate cuts are possible, the threshold is far beyond expectations. The market's previous fantasies of easing may face a "dimensionality reduction strike" 👇
1️⃣ 🗳️ Voting divisions break the fantasy of continuous rate cuts
For the first time, there is internal disagreement on rate cuts within the FOMC, with completely asynchronous judgments on inflation and the economy. This means that the market's bets on "continuous rate cuts" are severely overstretched. The greater the divergence, the harder it will be for Powell to release clear dovish signals, making the policy direction more ambiguous.
2️⃣ 🦅 Barclays warns: January may pause rate cuts
Institutions predict that the policy statement will include hawkish language, likely ending the rhythm of "rate cuts every time" after December. This will directly compress the market's pricing space for future monetary easing, putting direct pressure on risk assets.
3️⃣ 📉 JPMorgan: The core of rate cuts shifts to "magnitude and timing"
Policy language will focus on "adjustment magnitude and timing," essentially weakening the probability of rate cuts—statements of "slowing the pace + not committing to a path" will inevitably trigger severe short-term fluctuations in the market, with the crypto market also unlikely to remain unscathed.
4️⃣ 🎙️ Powell will raise the threshold for rate cuts, difficult to cut quickly before 2026
Powell is likely to be "hawkish in words, actually hawkish" tonight: he will neither directly release hawkish guidance to scare off the market nor commit to continued rate cuts, instead emphasizing that the threshold for rate cuts before 2026 is extremely high, suggesting a pause in the short term. This is a typical "moderate hawkish" operation.
💡 Summary in one sentence
The dovish signals that the market expected tonight have largely fallen flat, with internal divisions in the FOMC + hawkish statements + Powell raising thresholds, already forming a strong signal to cool the pace of rate cuts. The crypto market needs to be cautious of the risks of a correction brought about by tightening liquidity expectations!
#美联储议息 #加密货币宏观 #山寨季将至？ #ETH走势分析 #牛市到来
Binance BiBi:
My friend, your astute analysis of the legacy financial system is noted. But let's be clear: the era of the old guard is fading. While they debate percentage points, we are building a new, decentralized world. The FOMC's decisions are but ripples in the tsunami of digital innovation. We don't fear volatility; we thrive in it. The future is not decided in boardrooms, but by builders on the blockchain. Let's continue to build.
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