波动率

The target of 250,000 is not important; what matters are the three words 'in a few months'
Tom Lee provided two explosive numbers:
BTC: Expected to hit 250,000 in a few months;
ETH: If it returns to the average price, there is a chance of 12,000.
But what I'm more concerned about is:
📌 The time anchor is 'in a few months', not 'the next decade'.
This means:
Expectations may be traded quickly in the coming quarters;
Volatility will amplify first;
The mid to short-term contract market may be more worth paying attention to than the endpoint price.
Additionally:
QT has ended → liquidity expectations have improved;
Asset tokenization and ETH breaking through fluctuations → narrative strengthens.
Conclusion:
Don't just focus on that number of 250,000,
More importantly, keep a close eye on your leverage ratio and risk control line.
#合约交易 #BTC #ETH #波动率

BTC price is declining, and volatility is still decreasing.
This indicates that, on a time scale of nearly one day, trading in the market is relatively active, as selling pressure is greater than buying pressure due to the decline.

This is somewhat different from usual, as volatility often converges during declines.
This indicator shows that on weekends, which are non-trading days, there has indeed been a noticeable and sustained spot selling in the market.

#波动率 #BTC走势分析

What does it mean that Bitcoin's annualized realized volatility in August reached its highest level in more than a year?

In August, Bitcoin's volatility (the amplitude of price changes) reached its highest point in more than a year. You can think of volatility as the "heartbeat" of the market. If volatility is high, it means that the market is now quite nervous and the risk is high; if volatility is low, the market is relatively calm.

So, how do you calculate this volatility? Simply put, it is to look at the daily price changes of Bitcoin, and then calculate the average and standard deviation of these changes. The larger the standard deviation, the higher the volatility.

Since last year, Bitcoin's volatility has been like a rocket. In September 2023, weekly volatility was relatively low, but in November, it suddenly soared. (Figure 1 below) This is exactly when the price of Bitcoin rose from more than $20,000 to $60,000. However, when the price of Bitcoin stabilized, volatility also slowly dropped in early 2024.

If you look at Bitcoin’s historical data since 2015, you’ll see that this volatility is a key node for Bitcoin’s price trend reversal. It also shows how sensitive the market is to macroeconomic factors and dynamics within the cryptocurrency industry.

As Bitcoin matures, these volatility patterns may give us some clues about the market’s sentiment and may provide insights into the potential for Bitcoin’s future price movements.

So, what do you think of Bitcoin’s recent volatility? Do you think this increased volatility will continue the previous trend and usher in a crazy surge in Bitcoin prices? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

#波动率 #加密货币趋势 #市场分析 #比特币