奔跑财经-FinaceRun

BTC spot ETF saw a total net inflow of $85.85 million on Friday, while ETH ETF experienced a single-day outflow of $4.95 million

On June 13th, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded its first day of net inflow this week with $85.85 million;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC topped the inflow charts with $57.69 million (906.37 BTC) and $18 million (282.85 BTC) respectively;

Bitwise BITB, Ark & 21Shares ARKB, and VanEck HODL recorded single-day net inflows of $5.18 million (81.43 BTC), $3.17 million (49.76 BTC), and $1.80 million (28.28 BTC) respectively;

Notably, none of the 13 BTC spot ETFs experienced any net outflows on that day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $79.65 billion, accounting for 6.26% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with a cumulative net inflow of $53.62 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $4.95 million for the fourth consecutive day;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA saw the highest outflow with $4.53 million (around 2,720 ETH), currently accumulating a total net inflow of $11.30 billion;

Fidelity's FETH also recorded nearly $420,000 (249.04 ETH) in single-day net outflow, with a total net inflow of $2.12 billion;

In contrast to BTC spot ETFs, none of the 10 ETH spot ETFs recorded any net inflows on that day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $9.16 billion, accounting for 4.56% of Ethereum's total market cap, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.19 billion.

In summary, this divergence in capital flow highlights a stronger market consensus towards BTC while reflecting Ethereum's relative weakness in capital preference, indicating that the short-term crypto market's funding landscape still clearly favors Bitcoin.

#比特币ETF #EthereumETF

SPCX's single-day trading volume breaks $85.1 billion, setting a new record in the history of US IPOs.

On June 13, according to Eric Balchunas, SpaceX stock (ticker: $SPCX) made a stunning debut on its first day of public trading, easily breaking the historical record for single-day IPO trading volume and landing among the top ten single-day trading volumes for all stocks.

In comparison, the single-day trading volume for SPCX surpassed $85.1 billion, a figure that even exceeds the total trading volume for Apple on any single trading day in the last forty years.

Additionally, he previously initiated a market prediction poll, estimating that <a>$SPCX </a>'s first-day trading volume would be $58 billion, but user StevenUhey estimated it at $69 billion, which was the closest guess to the actual data among all comments.

Furthermore, looking at the trading volume rankings for that day, SpaceX led the pack by a wide margin with $85.1 billion, far outpacing second-place Micron Technology ($MU ) at $40.4 billion and third-place Tesla ($TSLA ) at $25.4 billion.

#SPCX

US Prediction Market Regulatory Jurisdiction Sparks Dispute: Gary Gensler Supports State-Level Regulatory Authority

This Thursday, former SEC and CFTC Chair Gary Gensler officially submitted court documents to the Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals regarding the regulatory jurisdiction of prediction markets.

Gensler believes that businesses related to prediction markets should not supersede state regulatory rules, directly addressing the growing regulatory divide between federal and local governments in this sector.

This statement stems from a legal dispute involving Kalshi (formerly KalshiEx) and the state of Ohio. Kalshi previously filed a lawsuit to evade state-level regulation, but was dismissed by a federal judge in March of this year.

In his amicus brief, Gensler analyzed the situation based on the Dodd-Frank Act and the Commodity Exchange Act, arguing that sports-related prediction contracts do not fall under the CFTC's federal regulatory purview.

In his view, these types of contracts inherently align with the constraints of each state's gambling-related regulations. Therefore, the federal level has no authority to override state regulatory rules, and each state should retain its primary oversight over sports prediction markets.

Organizations that joined Gensler in submitting the amicus brief include the Indiana Gambling Association and the American Gambling Association. These organizations also support state-level regulation, asserting that sports prediction markets are not materially different from traditional sports betting.

However, the US regulatory body CFTC significantly disagrees. Current CFTC Chair Mike Selig maintains that event contracts fall under financial derivatives and should be exclusively regulated by the CFTC.

In summary, this jurisdictional tug-of-war continues to escalate, with related cases likely to appeal to the Supreme Court, and the ruling's outcome will profoundly impact the compliance direction of the US prediction market industry.

#GaryGensler #PredictionMarketRegulatoryJurisdiction

SpaceX crypto derivatives trading price bounces back from the bottom, predicting a closing valuation of $2.4 trillion on its market debut.

According to market news, the price of Hyperliquid's perpetual contract (ticker: SPCX), related to SpaceX, has seen a shift in market sentiment after three weeks of decline.

Hyperliquid's SPCX does not grant holders any rights to SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or any claims against the company; it's merely a cash-settled derivative.

Currently, the open interest on the Hyperliquid platform exceeds $230 million, with a trading volume over $192 million in the last 24 hours. This contract has become one of the few markets that can display real-time expectations of the stock's potential opening price.

Considering the market issuance price for SpaceX, it has confirmed its Nasdaq listing tonight, trading at an IPO price of $135 per share, corresponding to an overall valuation of $1.77 trillion, setting the record for the largest IPO fundraising in history.

Meanwhile, institutions and related trading markets have raised the target valuation to $2.4 trillion, significantly higher than the official IPO valuation of $1.77 trillion.

Additionally, predictions from the Polymarket contracts indicate a 78% probability that SpaceX's market cap will exceed $2 trillion on its first trading day, a 64% chance of surpassing $2.2 trillion, and a 42% chance of reaching $2.4 trillion.

In the crypto trading space, the prices of related derivatives had previously weakened, but as the stock listing approaches, bullish sentiment is heating up, with funds flowing back into the contract market, indicating a significant rise in expectations for SpaceX's overall valuation to break $2.4 trillion.

In summary, there is a divergence between traditional capital markets and the crypto trading market regarding the company's listing valuation, with the latter providing significant premium space, reflecting different trading circles' assessments of SpaceX's upcoming market performance.

#SPCX

US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $34.92 million on Thursday

On June 12, according to SoSovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $19.03 million yesterday, marking the 5th consecutive day of outflows;

Among them, Ark & 21Shares ARKB led with a net outflow of $27.21 million (427.90 BTC) yesterday, currently having a total net inflow of $1.24 billion;

Next up are VanEck HODL, Bitwise BITB, and Fidelity FBTC, which recorded net outflows of $14.84 million (233.31 BTC), $13.12 million (206.30 BTC), and $5.54 million (87.08 BTC) respectively in a single day;

Notably, BlackRock IBIT topped the inflow list with $30.26 million (475.86 BTC) yesterday, currently having a total net inflow of $62.06 billion;

Following that are Grayscale BTC, Hashdex DEFI, and Morgan Stanley MSBT, which reported net inflows of $5.62 million (88.40 BTC), $3.60 million (56.69 BTC), and $2.19 million (34.41 BTC) respectively in a single day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $79.50 billion, accounting for 6.26% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of $53.54 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $15.89 million, marking the 3rd consecutive day of outflows;

Among them, Fidelity FETH and Grayscale ETH saw net outflows of $20.53 million (approximately 12,200 ETH) and $3.99 million (approximately 2,370 ETH) respectively in a single day;

Meanwhile, BlackRock ETHA stood out as the only ETH ETF with a net inflow of $8.63 million (approximately 5,130 ETH) yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $9.24 billion, accounting for 4.58% of Ethereum's total market cap, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.19 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Deribit’s BTC and ETH options worth over $2.5 billion are expiring today, and the market is leaning towards a short-term bullish outlook.

According to official data from Deribit, this Friday (June 12th, 16:00 Beijing time), the market will face over $2.5 billion in BTC and ETH options expiry.

Among these, the nominal value of today’s Bitcoin options is about $2.24 billion, with a put/call ratio of 0.69 and a max pain point at $66,000, indicating that traders are bullish on Bitcoin options in the short term;

Currently, there are nearly $128 million in bearish options concentrated at the $60,000 level, while Bitcoin’s current spot price (around $63,400) sits between the largest bearish options and the max pain point, meaning leverage traders need to manage the contract risks at these two critical price levels.

On the same day, the nominal value of Ethereum options is about $294 million, with a put/call ratio of 0.61 and a max pain point at $1,725, similarly showing that traders are bullish on Ethereum options in the short term;

Additionally, there are $19 million in expiry bearish options concentrated at $1,600, while Ethereum’s current spot market trading price is at $1,670, sitting between the largest bearish options and the max pain point, so investors need to manage the contract risks at these two critical price levels.

Overall, despite recent market volatility, the positions for both assets still lean towards bullish options. Currently, the put/call ratio for Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiring today is below 1.0, indicating the market still favors bullish options.

#比特币期权交割 #EthereumOptions

Fortune Magazine has dropped its "Crypto 100" list, revealing the top players across ten key sectors.

On June 12th, Fortune Magazine officially released the "Crypto 100" list, covering key sectors like centralized finance (CeFi), traditional finance (TradFi), financial technology (Fintech), DeFi, venture capital, stablecoins, crypto services, DAT and ETFs, mining, and blockchain & protocols, with the top ten in each sector.

In the CeFi space, the top three are Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken. The top three in TradFi are Franklin Templeton, JPMorgan, and Nasdaq;

In the Fintech arena, Robinhood, Stripe, and Visa make the top three. The DeFi leaderboard features Hyperliquid, Aave, and Lido at the top;

In the venture capital sector, the top firms are a16z, Paradigm, and Dragonfly Capital. In the stablecoin category, Tether, Circle, and Sky take the top spots. The crypto services field sees Chainalysis, MoonPay, and Consensys in the top three.

For DAT and ETFs, the top three are BlackRock, Strategy, and Grayscale. In mining, MARA Holdings, Bitmain, and CleanSpark rank at the top. The blockchain & protocols space lists Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as the frontrunners.

In summary, the "Crypto 100" list released by Fortune Magazine systematically outlines the leading forces in the top ten crucial tracks of the crypto industry, clearly sketching out the current core competitive landscape.

This list also marks the end of the early experimental phase for the crypto industry, entering a multi-polar competitive era where traditional capital and crypto-native forces coexist.

Looking ahead, the differentiation in industry tracks will intensify further, with concentration effects and cross-sector integration becoming the main theme in the evolution of the industry.

#财富杂志 #Crypto100

X platform rolls out the 'Big Charts' feature, allowing users to seamlessly embed stock/crypto charts with one click.

According to market news, X platform has officially launched the 'Big Charts' feature, enabling users to directly embed cryptocurrency or stock candlestick charts into their posts via the Cashtags trigger mechanism on iOS or web.

This new 'Big Charts' feature is an upgrade built on the existing Cashtags, allowing these charts to be embedded in an expandable format within the body of the post, rather than just as text or links.

In practical terms, when users create a post, they simply need to enter a '$' followed by the corresponding cryptocurrency or stock ticker in the input box, and upon posting, the relevant real-time chart will automatically display below.

#BigCharts #XNewFeature

CFTC Chair: Bringing Crypto Perpetual Contracts Under Local Regulation to Reverse Business Outflow

On June 12, CFTC Chair Mike Selig stated that under his leadership, the CFTC is integrating crypto perpetual contracts into a 'gold standard' regulatory framework to promote compliance for this product within the U.S. market.

Selig pointed out that the regulatory environment during the previous Biden administration forced a significant amount of crypto perpetual contract business to flow overseas to regions without investor protection, which indirectly contributed to major risk events like the FTX collapse.

He also emphasized that popular financial products like perpetual contracts should be made available to U.S. investors under U.S. law and regulatory frameworks.

In summary, this statement marks a significant shift in the attitude of U.S. regulators towards the crypto derivatives market.

#CFTC监管 #加密永续合约

Vitalik Buterin suggests ditching traditional collateralized debt mechanisms, proposing a restructured DeFi index tracking using options principles.

Recently, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin published a research paper on ethresear.ch, presenting a new model for index tracking assets based on options instead of debt, aiming to eliminate common liquidation risks in DeFi.

The research points out that traditional index tracking typically relies on over-collateralized debt mechanisms, which trigger immediate liquidation once the collateral value drops below a threshold. However, these methods may present issues like liquidation risks, funding costs, and counterparty risks.

In contrast, Buterin's new scheme completely discards the debt structure, opting to utilize options principles for index tracking, providing investors with more flexible risk management, reducing liquidation risks, and potentially lowering funding costs.

The core mechanism of this model is that the system operates solely holding ETH, with assets and liabilities needing to offset each other concerning the target T. This means that for every user holding a long T position, there must be a counterparty holding a short T position.

Therefore, users can pay fees to gain long exposure, while users providing short exposure collect those fees as profit.

Since there’s no debt structure between the two parties, the system also doesn’t need to rely on price oracles for forced liquidations, fundamentally eliminating default risks.

Buterin notes that the advantage of this scheme is that it completely removes the possibility of liquidation while avoiding the cascading liquidation issues that traditional DeFi faces during market volatility.

Moreover, as the scheme does not depend on centralized issuers, the system can operate in a purely decentralized environment. However, he also acknowledges that the model has trade-offs concerning capital efficiency and complexity, requiring further research and optimization.

Overall, this proposal is particularly suited for index product development within the DeFi space, offering new design ideas for decentralized financial index funds and synthetic assets, with the potential to enhance capital efficiency and risk management capabilities.

#VitalikButerin #options index

Bitwise CEO: Crypto Investment Scene Has a Rhythm Discrepancy, Advises Investors to Take a Long-Term View

Recently, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley posted on the X platform, urging crypto investors to "zoom out" and focus on long-term substantial progress rather than short-term fluctuations.

Horsley pointed out that unless you're day trading, investors don’t need to obsess over weekly news headlines or monthly price swings; instead, they should concentrate on two key dimensions:

First are the fundamental factors of the cryptocurrency market. This includes real-world applications of blockchain technology, product-market fit, the depth of involvement from large companies and institutions, as well as team quality and execution capability;

Second, investors should focus on an annual time frame. In his view, although the industry’s development path hasn’t been smooth, the substantial progress made in the crypto space from 2022 to 2026 is undeniable.

Horsley also noted that right now, crypto investors privately envy AI and SpaceX, but people often forget that those overnight success stories typically require a decade or two of accumulation.

Horsley’s comments are a direct response to a post by crypto analyst Milk Road. Milk Road's post stated that Horsley believes that most native investors in the crypto world have created a “rhythm misalignment” with mainstream investors.

Specifically, in the world of native crypto investors, an hour feels quick, a day is pretty fast, a week is a meaningful time frame, and what happened four weeks ago is almost forgotten by most.

However, for those mainstream investors who have just entered the field, a month feels really fast, and a year is a reasonable time frame.

In summary, it's clear that the overall rhythms of the two groups are completely different, but the tangible progress in the industry is real; it just feels slow to those who are used to measuring time in hours.

#CryptoMarketInvestmentRhythm

A female crypto mogul from the domestic scene fell victim to a carefully orchestrated scam by a "Middle Eastern royal family" in the U.S., losing over $9.4 million (about 60 million RMB).

The victim, Ms. Lu, is the CEO of a computational power tech company, which reportedly held 9% of the global Bitcoin hash rate during its peak.

This scam was meticulously planned and executed by a pair of brothers in the U.S. The older brother, Zubair Al-Zubair, claimed his uncle was the Saudi Defense Minister, wielding control over Middle Eastern family funds, international business relations, and local government resources in the U.S.

Meanwhile, the younger brother, Muzammil Al-Zubair, took inspiration from the TV series "Billions," adopting the persona of a hedge fund manager.

To bolster the scam's credibility, the Zubair brothers managed to rope in Michael Smedley, the chief of staff to the mayor of East Cleveland, to provide official cover for their scheme.

Smedley leveraged his position to secure state funding for the brothers, issue official documents, and even appointed Zubair as East Cleveland's "International Economic Advisor."

With municipal officials involved, the brothers signed a cryptocurrency mining farm development contract with the female mogul at city hall, further enhancing the scam's legitimacy.

Reports indicate that the brothers used the proceeds from the scam to buy over 1,000 cryptocurrency mining rigs, which they shipped to a so-called industrial park, and then secretly sold the equipment for a hefty profit of $5.5 million.

Currently, the scam duo has been sentenced to 24 and 23 years in prison respectively, ordered to pay a total of $21.2 million in damages and back taxes, while Smedley, who aided their scheme, received over 8 years behind bars.

In summary, this case reveals typical tactics of international fraud, including identity falsification, colluding with government officials, and creating fake business opportunities, all designed to confuse investors and ultimately lead to significant financial losses.

#加密货币诈骗 #投资陷阱

US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $249 million on Wednesday.

On June 11, according to SoSovalue data, US BTC spot ETFs recorded a continued net outflow of nearly $214 million for the fourth straight day;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC saw single-day net outflows of $148 million (about 2,400 BTC) and $87.91 million (about 1,420 BTC), respectively;

Meanwhile, Grayscale's BTC, Fidelity's FBTC, and WisdomTree's BTCW experienced net inflows of $17.52 million (283.38 BTC), $4.04 million (65.35 BTC), and $980,000 (15.85 BTC) on the same day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs stands at $77.33 billion, accounting for 6.24% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with a cumulative net inflow of $53.56 billion.

On the same day, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of $35.59 million for the second consecutive day;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA and Fidelity's FETH saw single-day net outflows of $20.64 million (about 12,680 ETH) and $16.63 million (about 10,220 ETH), respectively;

However, BlackRock's ETHB was the only ETH ETF to see a net inflow of $1.68 million (about 1,030 ETH) yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $8.96 billion, accounting for 4.55% of Ethereum's total market cap, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.21 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

BlackRock submits revised documents for Bitcoin yield ETF with a management fee of 0.65%, expected to launch in early July.

On June 10, news broke that BlackRock's iShares has filed the fourth version of the S-1 amendment for the Bitcoin yield ETF (ticker $BITA) with the SEC. Industry expert Eric Balchunas interprets this amendment as likely the final version.

The ETF's management fee is set at 0.65% (65bps), which is higher than similar products like $BITB, but lower than the current two largest covered call ETFs, which have fees of 0.95% and 0.99% respectively.

Market speculation suggests this product will soon go live, with BlackRock aiming to get ahead of Goldman Sachs in the market; the product is expected to be effective around July 1.

Eric Balchunas previously mentioned that the market will closely watch how much upside potential this ETF can generate for investors through options strategies.

He also compared the current yields of similar Bitcoin yield products in the market, such as $YBIT with a yield of 10% and $XBCI also at 10%, while the actual yield performance of $BITA will be worth ongoing observation.

#贝莱德 #BITA

US inflation data for May hits a three-year high, driven by soaring energy prices

According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor last night, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for residents in May (year-on-year) was reported at 4.2%, matching market expectations and marking a new three-year high.

Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI (year-on-year) rose 2.9%, also in line with expectations, reaching its highest level since November 2025.

From other data, energy prices were the main driver behind this inflation surge. The energy price index rose 3.9% month-over-month in May, marking a significant increase for the third consecutive month, contributing over 60% to the overall CPI rise.

Gas prices increased by 7.0% month-over-month and have surged a staggering 40.5% over the past 12 months. Electricity prices went up by 0.6%, while natural gas prices saw a slight dip of 0.5%.

Despite the overall inflation uptick, the core CPI’s month-over-month growth rate fell 0.2 percentage points from April to 0.2%, falling short of market expectations, indicating that the current intrinsic momentum of US inflation seems to be marginally weakening.

Analysts believe that the latest inflation data suggests that American citizens are facing higher living costs, which will exert greater pressure on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Markets expect the Fed to likely "hold steady" at the June policy meeting, maintaining current interest rates. The CME's "FedWatch Tool" indicates that the probability of a rate hike by the Fed by the end of this year has risen to over 67%.

Looking ahead, with the low base effect dissipating and international oil prices remaining relatively stable, analysts believe that the short-term rebound in US inflation may have ended, and the peak is likely behind us.

However, if relatively high oil prices persist in the long run, the impact on core inflation will still need to be monitored. Coupled with the summer travel peak and the upcoming World Cup events, whether core inflation can smoothly decline remains a point of ongoing attention.

#CPI

Warren Calls on SEC to Delay SpaceX IPO, Questions Valuation and Corporate Governance Issues

According to CNBC, Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has reached out to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), urging them to postpone SpaceX's upcoming Initial Public Offering (IPO) and expressing concerns over the rocket manufacturer's valuation and corporate governance.

Warren pointed out in her letter to the SEC that this historically large IPO poses an "unprecedented threat" to investor protection and market integrity.

In a 12-page letter, Warren outlined several risks: SpaceX's acquisition of xAI may have accounting or valuation issues; Musk's excessive power as a major shareholder could lead to conflicts of interest; rapidly including it in major indices could expose investors to significant risks.

Warren is particularly worried that the quick inclusion of SpaceX in major indices may force millions of passive index fund investors to hold the company's stock against their will.

She stated that for investors who can independently choose their specific investments, they can at least avoid investing in companies engaged in risky or unfair practices.

Furthermore, the SpaceX IPO creates a new concern. The rapid inclusion of SpaceX in major indices compels millions of passive index fund investors to invest in SpaceX without options, facing significant risks.

Notably, SpaceX has adopted an unusual pricing strategy, setting a "take it or leave it" price of $135 per share, rather than offering a price range based on market demand.

Reports indicate the company has also allocated a higher-than-usual share of 30% for target retail investors, amounting to approximately $22.5 billion. SpaceX is set to start trading on Friday, aiming to raise record funds at a historic valuation.

Warren emphasized in her letter that this IPO is not only unprecedented in size but also poses an unprecedented threat to investor protection and market integrity, and she is calling for the SEC to delay the effectiveness of the registration statement. As of now, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has not responded to this request.

#SpaceX

US CFTC Proposes New Rules for Prediction Markets Aiming to Clarify Regulatory Boundaries and Operating Rules

According to market news, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is proposing new regulations for prediction markets to clarify the entry standards for event contracts, tradable categories, and operational boundaries, effectively establishing a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for the industry.

The new rules will primarily regulate the types of event contracts allowed on prediction platforms, including Kalshi, and will provide clearer boundaries for sports-related betting while preventing any single participant from having an undue influence on the outcomes.

It's noteworthy that there has been significant disagreement between state and federal levels regarding the regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets. Some states are seeking self-regulatory authority for prediction platforms, while the CFTC insists on having exclusive regulatory power, leading to multiple legal disputes.

Additionally, regulatory bodies are continuously monitoring the insider trading and illegal betting issues arising within prediction markets. To address this, the CFTC has launched several related investigations aimed at promoting the implementation of rules while strengthening market compliance oversight.

Currently, the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) under the White House Office of Management and Budget has received the proposed rules for prediction markets submitted by the CFTC, and the related proposals are under review.

Although this new rule proposal is still in the review stage, this series of moves indicates that the regulatory framework for prediction markets is being reshaped and may have a profound impact on the future development of the industry.

#CFTC #NewRegulations

Tim Draper: Bitcoin is Safer than Bank Deposits, Quantum Threats Will First Hit the Banking System

Recently, renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper shared his unique insights on the potential impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin's security during a media interview.

He stated that Bitcoin is actually safer than the dollars in bank accounts, aiming to ease market concerns regarding the quantum computing threat to the Bitcoin ecosystem's security.

Draper pointed out that while quantum computing could theoretically crack cryptographic algorithms, it will first target the banking system rather than the blockchain network. This assessment is based on the relatively outdated state of banking infrastructure; in contrast, the Bitcoin network is as solid as a fortress.

He emphasized that traditional banking systems appear particularly vulnerable in the face of quantum computing, while Bitcoin's decentralized architecture and advanced cryptographic technology provide it with stronger protective capabilities.

When discussing the network's recovery capabilities in extreme scenarios, Draper further explained Bitcoin's unique advantages. Even if the blockchain faces security threats, full node operators can roll back the network to the last secure block, ensuring the system continues to run.

It's worth noting that this self-healing mechanism is something traditional banking systems lack; hence, if similar security threats arise in the banking system, they would face irreparable permanent losses.

Based on these technological advantages of the blockchain network, Draper is confident about Bitcoin's future development. He even predicts that Bitcoin will ultimately fully replace the dollar as the dominant global currency.

Draper also anticipates that as more retailers begin to accept Bitcoin, they will gradually choose to transact exclusively in Bitcoin, and that Bitcoin will eventually surpass the dollar to become the new medium of value storage and transaction.

#量子威胁 #BitcoinSecurity

Analyst: Bitcoin Sees Massive Outflow, Market is in a Surrender Sell-off Phase

On June 10, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released an analysis report indicating that the Bitcoin market is experiencing significant capital outflow and a sell-off driven by losses.

Data shows that the net realized market cap change rate for Bitcoin has dropped to -1.1% over the past 30 days, marking the first time since mid-March that capital outflow has reached such a severe level.

Specifically, Bitcoin's realized market cap has decreased from around $1.087 trillion in mid-May to $1.075 trillion, with a total outflow of about $12 billion.

Entering June, this indicator also worsened rapidly from -0.15% on June 1 to -1.1% on June 8. This may suggest that the speed of current capital outflow is clearly accelerating.

However, comparing the current outflow metrics to the market sell-off in March, the current levels are still significantly lower than the peak at that time, which reached -2.4%, indicating that there may still be room for further deterioration in the market.

Additionally, the sold Bitcoin aSOPR SMA-30 (the adjusted SOPR average profit/loss ratio over the past 30 days) has remained below 1.0 for 13 consecutive days since it dropped on May 28, currently sitting at 0.987, meaning each transaction is losing about 1.3% on average.

Moreover, aSOPR staying below 1 for an extended period is typically seen as a sign of weak hands being flushed out. Thus, until this indicator rebounds to 1.0, selling pressure is likely to remain dominant.

In summary, these two core indicators clearly demonstrate that the current market has entered a panic sell-off phase. This ongoing capital outflow on-chain is primarily driven by surrender selling from loss-making investors.

#比特币 #亏损抛售

CPI coming up: Bitcoin and gold both taking a hit, rate hike expectations impacting safe-haven assets

On June 10, market news reports that due to rising expectations of a rate hike from the Fed, both Bitcoin and gold, as safe-haven assets, are trending downwards, putting pressure on various hedging assets in the market.

According to market prices, Bitcoin's price today has dropped to $61,316, with a 24-hour decline of 2.4% and a weekly drop of 7.8%; on the same day, gold's price briefly fell below $4,200/ounce in the morning, down by 2%.

Analysts state that this cryptocurrency pullback is mainly driven by short squeezes. Data from Coinglass indicates that over $500 million in short positions were liquidated on Sunday, marking the second-largest liquidation amount in the last three months;

Additionally, the spot market (including U.S. Bitcoin ETFs) continues to face outflows. This weak demand also leaves the market lacking a rebound foundation; if selling pressure increases, prices will again face downward pressure.

Traders are closely watching the U.S. CPI inflation report set to be released tonight at 8:30 PM (Beijing time); if the data exceeds expectations, it could strengthen the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance on maintaining high rates, further pressuring risk assets.

In summary, analysts point out that if gold stabilizes while Bitcoin continues to decline, it will further weaken Bitcoin's core argument as a macro hedging tool.

The current tightening of market liquidity means there is less "cheap money" available. Assets that previously surged thanks to low rates and a loose funding environment are generally facing selling pressure.

#比特币 #gold