奔跑财经-FinaceRun

The total net inflow of the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs reached $207 million on Friday

On March 14, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $180 million yesterday, marking five consecutive days of total net inflow; moreover, there was no net outflow from any BTC ETF yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the list of net inflows yesterday with nearly $144 million (approximately 2,020 BTC); the total net inflow for IBIT currently stands at $63.07 billion;

Next is Fidelity's FBTC and VanEck's HODL, which recorded net inflows of $23.24 million (326.64 BTC) and $8.05 million (113.14 BTC) respectively for the day;

Bitwise's BITB and Ark 21Shares' ARKB recorded net inflows of $3.09 million (43.45 BTC) and $2.36 million (33.19 BTC) respectively for the day;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $91.83 billion, accounting for 6.43% of Bitcoin's total market value, with a total net inflow of $56.14 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $26.69 million, marking four consecutive days of total net inflow;

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA and ETHB ranked first and second in net inflows yesterday with $32.39 million (approximately 15,410 ETH) and $2.16 million (approximately 1,030 ETH) respectively;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FETH, with a net outflow of $7.86 million (approximately 3,740 ETH), became the only ETH ETF with a net outflow yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $12.26 billion, accounting for 4.81% of Ethereum's total market value, with a total net inflow of $11.79 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Santiment: The proportion of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges has fallen to the lowest level since November 2017

On March 14, the on-chain analysis platform Santiment stated on platform X that, according to traceable wallet data, the proportion of Bitcoin currently held on exchanges has dropped to the lowest level since November 2017.

Santiment pointed out in a tweet that since 2017, over the past more than eight years, both the crypto market and the global macro environment have undergone significant changes.

A continuous decline in the proportion of Bitcoin reserves on exchanges often indicates that current investors are valuing BTC's long-term potential over short-term fluctuations.

It is worth noting that the last time this indicator fell to the current level was back in November 2017, when Bitcoin's price was only around $16,400.

Although history does not simply repeat itself, this data at least indicates that investors are "moving" Bitcoin off exchanges rather than preparing to sell.

As the selling pressure of circulating BTC on exchanges decreases, it indicates that the current market is in an accumulation phase, further reinforcing investors' long-term bullish expectations.

#交易所BTC供应量

The US BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $126 million on Thursday

On March 13, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $53.87 million yesterday, marking four consecutive days of net inflow;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC topped the net inflow list yesterday with $46.15 million (657.56 BTC) and $15.30 million (218.05 BTC) respectively.

Next were Grayscale's BTC and Ark 21Shares ARKB, which saw daily net inflows of $4.99 million (71.07 BTC) and $3.03 million (43.14 BTC) respectively;

However, Grayscale's GBTC and Bitwise BITB recorded daily net outflows of $9.88 million (140.81 BTC) and $5.72 million (81.48 BTC) respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $90.47 billion, accounting for 6.45% of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of $55.96 billion.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $72.37 million, marking three consecutive days of net inflow; and there was no net outflow from any ETH ETF yesterday;

Among them, Fidelity's FETH and BlackRock's ETHA topped the net inflow list yesterday with $52.02 million (approximately 25,240 ETH) and $18.68 million (approximately 9,060 ETH) respectively.

Next were Bitwise ETHW and Franklin EZET, which saw daily net inflows of nearly $88.53 million (429.45 ETH) and $78.15 million (379.13 ETH) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $11.86 billion, accounting for 4.76% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.72 billion.

Overall, while the US BTC and ETH spot ETFs have maintained a state of net inflow this week, the scale of inflow has not significantly increased;

This phenomenon indicates that although market sentiment has warmed to a certain extent, there is still a lack of strong upward momentum in the capital flow.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

John Thune: The Senate will not pass the cryptocurrency market structure bill before April this year

On March 12, U.S. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the Senate will not advance digital asset market structure legislation before April, which means that the much-anticipated "CLARITY Act" will be further delayed in the legislative process.

Thune revealed that the Senate will prioritize voting on the "SAVE America Act" next week, which requires voters to register in person and provide proof of U.S. citizenship.

Moreover, influenced by Trump's previous pressure on Congress, the Senate indicated it would prioritize the voter ID bill "SAVE America Act" and only after its passage would it address the cryptocurrency market structure bill and other bipartisan proposals.

However, Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno's expectations sharply contrast with Thune's perspective. Moreno expressed in February that he hoped the cryptocurrency market structure bill "CLARITY Act" would be passed by Congress before April.

Although an earlier version of the bill has already been approved by the Senate Agriculture Committee, the Banking Committee postponed the originally scheduled critical merging review in January and has yet to schedule a new voting time.

Meanwhile, the Senate passed an amendment to a housing bill on Thursday, prohibiting the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency before December 2030.

In contrast, the advancement of the market structure bill still faces multiple obstacles, including unresolved core controversies such as tokenized equity, ethical clauses, and stablecoin yields.

Although Trump publicly accused the banking industry of "hijacking" the bill last week, and the White House convened a closed-door meeting with representatives from the cryptocurrency and banking industries this Wednesday;

As of Thursday, there has been no news of any agreement reached between the two parties. This deadlock also means that the prospects for cryptocurrency market structure legislation remain uncertain.

This "uncertainty" in the process itself is an answer, because in Washington's priority list, the cryptocurrency market structure bill must give way to the voter ID bill.

#CLARITY法案 #立法僵局

Hester Peirce calls for simplifying disclosure rules to promote tokenized securities innovation exemption experiments

On March 12, Hester Peirce, known as the 'Crypto Mom' and a commissioner at the U.S. SEC, spoke at an Investor Advisory Committee meeting, urging regulators to avoid excessive intervention in the market and to consider simplifying corporate disclosure requirements while allowing for limited innovation exemption experiments for tokenized securities.

Peirce cited the views of Adam Smith, the father of modern economics, arguing that regulators should avoid trying to shape market outcomes. She pointed out that public companies spend a significant amount of time preparing mandatory disclosure documents, which instead obscures the key information that investors truly need. Therefore, she called on the SEC to simplify disclosure rules to effectively enhance information transmission efficiency.

When discussing tokenized securities, Peirce revealed that the SEC is researching a potential 'innovation exemption' mechanism that would allow for limited experiments with tokenized securities to assess how existing securities laws apply to blockchain-based markets.

Given that blockchain systems can achieve faster settlement and, in some cases, complete transactions without traditional intermediaries, Peirce questioned the additional disclosure and intermediary requirements imposed on tokenized securities.

Moreover, tokenization is becoming a core issue of increasing focus for the SEC. As early as last year, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins viewed tokenization as a significant financial innovation and argued that regulators should encourage rather than restrict it.

In December of the same year, the SEC issued a no-action letter to the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), allowing it to explore blockchain-based securities tokenization services.

This move by the SEC effectively gave the green light for the DTCC to develop infrastructure supporting traditional securities blockchain settlement.

Additionally, Washington is also advancing broader legislative discussions on cryptocurrency market structure, and the outcomes of these legislative processes may determine the ultimate regulatory direction and landscape for digital assets in the U.S.

#HesterPeirc

The U.S. Senate passed a housing bill with a CBDC ban attached, but the path through the House of Representatives remains uncertain.

On March 12, the U.S. Senate overwhelmingly passed an important piece of legislation, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, with a bipartisan vote of 89 to 10.

It is noteworthy that within this 303-page bill, there is an unrelated provision: it prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing central bank digital currency until at least the end of 2030.

The provision states that the Federal Reserve "shall not directly or indirectly issue or create central bank digital currency through financial institutions or other intermediaries, or any digital asset that is essentially similar to central bank digital currency."

For a long time, Republican lawmakers have been eager to push for a CBDC ban, while the U.S. government has remained at the research stage, yet to launch a government token that can compete with private stablecoins or CBDCs developed in jurisdictions like China.

Cody Carbone, CEO of the Digital Chamber of Commerce, stated, "Financial privacy is the cornerstone of American freedom, and any decision to authorize the central bank to issue digital currency must be made by Congress and the American people."

At the same time, he expressed sincere gratitude to the Senate for reiterating that American digital innovation should be led by the private sector and for protecting individual privacy freedoms.

However, House members have indicated they may attempt to modify the Senate version again, particularly a provision that forces large investors (such as private equity firms) to reduce their housing holdings, which could obstruct the bill's advancement.

Despite Trump's support for limiting institutional home purchases, he has recently made strong statements claiming that he must first sign the voter ID law before the midterm elections; otherwise, he will not sign any legislation.

Therefore, whether the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act ultimately comes to fruition still depends on the final direction of the House and whether Trump will stick to his promises.

Additionally, Trump's hardline stance has added various uncertainties to other cryptocurrency-related legislative processes, including the Clarity Act.

#CBDC禁令 #住房法案

Bitwise CIO: The goal of one million dollars for Bitcoin seems 'crazy,' but it is not out of reach

Recently, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan expressed his views in an article, arguing that the price of Bitcoin reaching one million dollars is not out of reach.

He explained that if the global value storage market continues to expand at the pace of the past twenty years, Bitcoin only needs to capture about 17% of that market to achieve this goal.

Hougan admitted that, based on the current market price, a valuation of one million dollars means Bitcoin needs to rise about 14 times, which on the surface seems unrealistic, but the value storage market is not static, and the possibility of its continued expansion should not be overlooked.

Currently, the global value storage market is about 38 trillion dollars, of which gold alone accounts for 36 trillion, while Bitcoin is only 1.4 trillion, making up less than 4%. If the market share remains unchanged, Bitcoin would need to capture more than half of the share to reach one million dollars, which is extremely difficult. However, if its market share continues to rise, the situation could be entirely different.

Hougan also emphasized that the value storage market itself has been continuously expanding. For example, since the launch of the first gold ETF in 2004, driven by rising debt and monetary easing, its market value has grown from 2.5 trillion dollars to nearly 40 trillion dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of about 13%.

If this growth rate continues, the global value storage market will reach about 121 trillion dollars in the next decade; in this scenario, Bitcoin only needs to capture 17% of the share for its price to reach one million dollars.

Of course, this prediction also carries uncertainties. Hougan pointed out that past growth has benefited from the global financial crisis, quantitative easing, and other special historical contexts, but if these trends slow down, the price of gold may face a decline; Bitcoin may also be unable to capture more market share.

Conversely, if concerns about government debt escalate, prompting investors to accelerate their shift towards alternative value storage assets, the current predictions may even underestimate Bitcoin's growth potential.

#比特币 #市场份额

Trump's Crypto Advisor: Compliant Stablecoins Will Bring Deposits into the American Banking Industry, Not Outflow

On March 12, President's Digital Asset Advisor Patrick Witt posted on X platform, pointing out that a stablecoin regulatory framework compliant with the GENIUS Act will bring deposit inflows to the U.S. banking system, contrary to the outflow concerns of traditional banking.

He emphasized that the global demand for the U.S. dollar is enormous, and foreign investors exchanging dollars from U.S. issuers with local currency for dollar stablecoins are actually injecting net new capital into the U.S. banking system.

Witt's viewpoint is also a strong response to the concerns of traditional banking. Earlier, organizations like the American Bankers Association (ABA) warned that stablecoins that can provide yields might siphon off bank deposits.

Earlier this week, ABA President Rob Nichols stated that while the industry welcomes competition and innovation, regulators should avoid creating an "unfair competitive environment" to prevent crypto firms from offering similar banking products without adhering to the same regulatory standards.

However, the crypto industry rebutted that under the GENIUS Act framework, stablecoin issuers must strictly comply with the reserve rules of the GENIUS Act, meaning that issuers must fully back stablecoin exchanges with cash or equivalent assets to ensure the stability of the stablecoins.

In addition, Witt pointed out earlier this month that the entities needing regulation are not the yield of payment balances themselves, but the act of lending or re-pledging funds. However, the GENIUS Act has explicitly prohibited issuers from engaging in such operations. This response also effectively counters the banking industry's doubts about the "regulatory risks of stablecoins."

Currently, the dispute over stablecoin yields has become the core resistance to crypto legislation, hindering the advancement of key proposals including the CLARITY Act. Although the GENIUS Act has established a federal framework for payment stablecoins, the uncompromising tug-of-war between the banking industry and crypto firms has kept the legislative process in a deadlock.

To break this impasse, the White House recently urgently summoned executives from the crypto industry and banking sector for a closed-door meeting, attempting to bridge differences through high-level dialogue. Although the meeting was described as "productive," the substantive differences remain evident from the challenging progress.

#Stablecoins

The first batch of stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong will be issued next week, with reports that Standard Chartered, HSBC, and OSL have made the cut.

On March 12, according to sources cited by the Sing Tao Daily, Hong Kong is about to issue its first batch of stablecoin licenses. Traditional banking giants Standard Chartered, HSBC, and the local virtual asset trading platform OSL Group are among the first companies to obtain stablecoin licenses.

Reports indicate that the list will be announced at the latest next week, but there are still uncertainties before the official rollout. Currently, the rumored list does not include any Chinese-funded institutions, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has declined to comment on such rumors. If the news is true, it will mark a key milestone in Hong Kong's digital asset regulatory process.

Analysts believe that with the successful selection of financial giants HSBC and Standard Chartered, it symbolizes that traditional financial institutions are accelerating their entry into the digital asset sector; while the successful inclusion of virtual asset trading platform OSL reflects regulatory support for local licensed institutions.

This move not only establishes a compliance benchmark for the market but also provides an important reference case for subsequent institutional applications. The market is closely watching for the official announcement next week, anticipating the official unveiling of this significant layout in the digital asset field.

#香港 #首批稳定币牌照

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $172 million on Wednesday.

On March 12, according to the latest data from SoSovalue, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded nearly $115 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of total net inflow;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the net inflow list yesterday with $115 million (approximately 1,630 BTC), bringing the total net inflow of IBIT to $62.88 billion;

Next was Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's BTC, which recorded daily net inflows of $15.37 million (217.68 BTC) and $5 million (70.85 BTC), respectively;

However, Grayscale's GBTC and VanEck HODL saw daily net outflows of $15.97 million (226.17 BTC) and $4.49 million (63.63 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $89.89 billion, accounting for 6.43% of Bitcoin's total market cap, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.90 billion.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of $57.01 million, marking two consecutive days of total net inflow; and there was no net outflow for any ETH ETF yesterday;

Among them, Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETH topped the net inflow list yesterday with $19.13 million (approximately 9,220 ETH) and $19.08 million (approximately 9,200 ETH), respectively.

However, BlackRock's ETHA recorded a net inflow of $18.80 million (approximately 9,060 ETH), ranking third for daily net inflow, with a cumulative total net inflow of $11.93 billion;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $11.85 billion, accounting for 4.75% of Ethereum's total market cap, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.65 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

BTC market prices have digested the March CPI inflation expectations

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on March 11, inflation in the U.S. rose slightly in February, but the market reacted relatively calmly.

Analysts in the cryptocurrency sector believe that although such inflation data largely meets market expectations, the upcoming March CPI data may have already been priced in by the market.

The February CPI report shows a general upward trend in various data. Among them, energy prices increased by 0.6%, food prices rose by 0.4%, housing costs went up by 0.2%, and after excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI still maintained its upward momentum.

Meanwhile, prices in multiple sectors, including healthcare, clothing, household goods, airline tickets, and education, have shown varying degrees of increase, indicating that inflation has a strong foundation and is unlikely to dissipate quickly in the short term.

It is worth noting that after the data was released, the cryptocurrency market showed a certain degree of resilience. The Total 3 metric, which tracks the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH, only fell less than 1% from an intraday high of approximately $717.3 billion.

21Shares macroeconomic director Stephen Coltman stated that the upcoming CPI data adds significant pressure to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for interest rate decisions, making its rate decisions face difficult choices.

Regarding this dilemma, Coltman further questioned whether the Federal Reserve would “look the other way” on temporary shocks or learn from the lessons of the last inflation cycle to take preventive measures and maintain a hawkish stance? This is undoubtedly a focal point that the market urgently seeks to answer.

Strategy researcher Matt Mena believes that although Bitcoin is consolidating in the range of $68,000 to $74,000 in the short term, the timing for breaking through the key resistance level of $75,000 is ripe; once effectively broken, the mid-term price will directly enter a new stage of $75,000 to $80,000.

Historically, after geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin often rebounds strongly by more than 15%, reaching the range of approximately $77,000 to $80,000. If the FOMC resumes rate cuts in 2026, this rebound process will be further “accelerated.”

According to CME FedWatch tool data, currently only 0.7% of traders expect a rate cut in March, indicating that the market does not have overly high expectations for a loose interest rate policy in the short term.

#CPI数据 #Federal Reserve interest rates

Tom Lee: Bitcoin has withstood pressure tests amid soaring oil prices, and its value storage function is being reshaped

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee stated that despite the backdrop of ongoing conflict in the Middle East causing oil prices to soar, Bitcoin remained resilient over the past weekend and successfully passed a crucial pressure test.

He believes this indicates that the large-scale deleveraging in the cryptocurrency market that began in October last year has finally ended, and Bitcoin is becoming a reliable means of value storage again.

On Wednesday, during an interview with CNBC at the Future Proof conference in Miami, Lee noted that Software, Mag-7, and the cryptocurrency sector had all previously experienced bear markets, and this downward pressure has effectively suppressed market speculation.

When asked whether the recent performance of gold, which has outperformed Bitcoin amid market turmoil, means that Bitcoin has lost its safe-haven function, Lee asserted that Bitcoin's previous weakness was not due to a loss of safe-haven attributes, but rather affected by extreme market conditions.

Lee pointed out that Bitcoin experienced a crash on October 10, primarily due to the largest deleveraging event in cryptocurrency history, which caused its price movement to diverge from that of gold. While gold was rising, Bitcoin was falling.

However, he emphasized that all of this is now in the past, and the market has weathered the winter of speculation and deleveraging. He also noted that despite the sharp rise in oil prices following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin remained above $70,000 over the past weekend, indicating that Bitcoin's role as a value storage tool is being reshaped.

As of the time of writing, Bitcoin's trading price is approximately $70,000, having dipped 0.1% in the past 24 hours, down more than 44% from its historical high in October last year.

Additionally, on-chain analysis data provided by Binance Research shows that when Bitcoin's price traded in the range of $65,000 - $75,000, about 29,000 Bitcoins were withdrawn from exchanges.

This market behavior sharply contrasts with the previous situation when the price fell from $97,000 to $62,000, where exchange balances increased.

Overall, this indicates that current investors prefer self-custody rather than preparing to sell, and this shift clearly reflects their long-term confidence in holding Bitcoin and a continued optimistic attitude.

#TomLee #比特币

Trump Restarts Trade War: Using Section 301 of the Trade Act to Bypass Rulings and Launch Trade Investigations Against 16 Major Economies

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer announced on Wednesday that investigations will be initiated against 16 major economies, including the EU, Mexico, India, Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.

The investigations will focus on the so-called issue of "excess capacity," as the United States attempts to examine the relevant trade behaviors of these economies to determine if there are any circumstances affecting U.S. trade interests.

Just last month, the Supreme Court rejected its global tariffs, putting pressure on the Trump administration's trade policies for adjustment. This adjustment of tariff strategy is also seen by outsiders as a key initiative of the Trump administration.

The U.S. Trade Representative's investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act is viewed as an intention to replace old measures and reshape tariff barriers to continue implementing its trade protectionist policies.

According to procedural provisions, such investigations usually take several months to complete, but this is precisely the necessary legal prerequisite for the president to unilaterally impose tariffs on imported goods from specific countries.

This means that although the Supreme Court's ruling has temporarily halted Trump’s previous global tariff plans, the Trump administration is seeking a legal breakthrough through intensive investigations, attempting to bypass the restrictions of the ruling and reimpose tariff threats.

The scope of this investigation is extremely broad, covering countries from Switzerland and Norway in Europe to Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Bangladesh in Asia, all of which are included in the investigation.

This series of actions marks the U.S. government's attempt to define so-called unfair trade practices through extensive investigations, aiming to find supporting evidence for subsequent large-scale tariff sanctions, thereby maximizing U.S. interests in the trade field.

#特朗普关税 #贸易战

Affected by the decisions of the seven major central banks and geopolitical conflicts, Bitcoin may face a critical directional choice next week.

According to CoinDesk, global financial markets will experience an intense wave of central bank meetings next week. Seven major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, will announce their interest rate decisions from March 17 to 19, alongside surging oil prices triggered by the Middle East wars, which are reigniting market concerns about global inflation.

The schedule for next week's intensive central bank decisions is as follows:

First is the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on March 17; followed by the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Canada (BOC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on March 18; and finally, the interest rate decisions of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Swiss National Bank (SNB), and European Central Bank (ECB) on March 19.

Previously, the market generally expected major central banks like the Federal Reserve to steadily lower interest rates or maintain an accommodative stance, coupled with the rise of AI technology in the U.S. seen as a potential deflationary force, this expectation once provided strong support for risk assets like Bitcoin.

However, since the U.S. launched military strikes against Iran on February 28, Middle Eastern energy transport has been obstructed, and rising oil prices have reignited inflation concerns in the industry, forcing traders to reassess the impending global central bank interest rate decisions.

Currently, policymakers are caught in a dilemma. Based on the lessons learned from their erroneous judgments in 2021-2022 that led to temporary inflation, they may lean towards taking swift action to curb price pressures. Therefore, if central banks release hawkish signals next week, risk assets like Bitcoin could face significant downward volatility.

Yet, economists point out that in the face of oil price shocks, the Federal Reserve typically observes inflation levels before making loss assessments, as oil plays a critical role in the modern economic system.

However, although the impact of oil prices raises inflation while suppressing economic growth, such shocks are characterized by their temporary nature, and the Federal Reserve is also reluctant to hastily adjust interest rates due to misjudgments in the situation, leading to an awkward situation of being forced to reverse course weeks later.

According to historical patterns, only the interest rate decisions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan can have a substantial impact on Bitcoin prices.

But with the imminent intensive communications from global central banks, coupled with soaring oil prices and the persistent shadow of inflation, Bitcoin may face a true stress test next week.

#央行利率决议

The Democratic Party of the United States has proposed a new bill aimed at prohibiting the establishment of contracts related to war and death in prediction markets.

On March 10, Democratic lawmakers introduced a new bill that seeks to ban betting contracts on events such as war, assassination, and terrorism in prediction markets.

This proposal, named the "DEATH BETS Act," will directly impose constraints on trading platforms registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The main sponsor of the proposal, Senator Adam Schiff, stated on social media: "Betting on war and death creates an environment where insiders can profit from non-public information, jeopardizing our national security and encouraging violence. Congress must take action."

The introduction of this bill comes as prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi attract a significant number of investors with their unique models. Users can place bets on political events, economic indicators, and even the outcomes of geopolitical conflicts, with previous platforms offering trading contracts related to the Middle Eastern conflict.

Meanwhile, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig stated in a public announcement on Monday that the agency is working on establishing clear regulatory standards for prediction markets, specifying which products can self-certify in the market and how to evaluate different types of prediction market products.

The letter pointed out that such contracts pose serious national security risks and may incentivize inciting violence, exacerbating geopolitical conflicts, and leaking confidential information. The introduction of this bill may further tighten restrictions on contracts related to sensitive events such as "war and death."

Currently, the bill still needs to go through the congressional review process. If ultimately passed, trading platforms registered with the CFTC will be explicitly prohibited from listing contracts related to terrorism, assassination, war, or death. This would also represent an important step for the United States in the regulation of prediction markets.

In summary, the introduction of this bill is not only a direct intervention by lawmakers into the expanding boundaries of prediction markets but also delineates clearer regulatory lines for the compliant operation of emerging prediction market platforms.

Whether due to national security considerations or to prevent market disorder, when "war and death" become commodities that can be priced, this legislative game about "what should not be bet on" is laying down crucial annotations for the future of prediction markets.

#预测市场监管 #CFTC

The U.S. BTC and ETH spot ETFs saw a cumulative net inflow of $264 million on Tuesday.

On March 11, according to SoSovalue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly $251 million yesterday, marking two consecutive days of total net inflow; and there was no net outflow for any BTC ETF yesterday;

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT topped the net inflow list yesterday with nearly $186 million (approximately 2,650 BTC), bringing the total net inflow of IBIT to $62.786 billion;

Following that were Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB, which recorded net inflows of $33.54 million (478.95 BTC) and $16.35 million (233.56 BTC) respectively yesterday;

VanEck HODL, Grayscale's BTC, and Ark 21Shares ARKB, saw net inflows of $5.94 million (84.85 BTC), $5.27 million (75.25 BTC), and $4.07 million (58.08 BTC) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $90.02 billion, accounting for 6.41% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $55.79 billion.

On the same day, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $12.59 million, marking the first day of total net inflow this week; and there was no net outflow for any ETH ETF yesterday;

Among them, only Fidelity's FETH and Grayscale's ETH recorded net inflows of $10.66 million (approximately 5,230 ETH) and $1.93 million (947.57 ETH) respectively yesterday;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $11.57 billion, accounting for 4.69% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $11.59 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The unrealized loss of Bitcoin corporate holdings has reached 80%, and the institutional cost line has become a key pressure point in the market.

On March 10, according to a post by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, as the price of Bitcoin continues to stay below the average purchase cost for companies, nearly 80% of the companies holding BTC as a reserve asset are facing unrealized losses.

Data shows that the simple average cost of corporate holdings is about $90,000, with the weighted average cost of holdings as high as $81,000, which is far below the buying price for most companies at current market prices, and institutional investors are generally facing significant unrealized loss pressure.

Edwards pointed out that although historical experience suggests that the situation may worsen, he also emphasized that "There is no free Bitcoin profit in this world," hinting that investors should rationally view the current unrealized loss predicament.

However, Edwards also noted a positive signal; under the general pressure on institutions, corporate and ETF buying volumes turned positive on the day he posted, exceeding the average level by 200%. The last time this level occurred, the price of Bitcoin was around $90,000, which is "very good news, especially in times of war."

MicroStrategy is a typical representative of institutional buying willingness, as the company recently purchased 17,994 Bitcoins at an average price of about $71,000. Although its total holdings currently face an unrealized loss of about $6 billion, the continuous buying behavior reflects the firm belief of some institutions in long-term value.

More macro supply data also provides supporting factors for institutional accumulation. Analyst Darkfost pointed out that the current reserves of BTC on centralized exchanges have dropped to the lowest level since 2019.

In addition, since the launch of various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024, about 1.3 million Bitcoins have been absorbed.

Meanwhile, corporate treasury institutions collectively hold about 1.1 million Bitcoins, which accounts for nearly 5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

In summary, this continuous accumulation effect combined with the reduction of exchange stock forms a supply-demand contradiction that may accumulate strength for future price breakthroughs against the cost line.

As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is consolidating around $70,000, down about 44% from its historical high, with the market also engaging in intense long-short battles near the institutional cost line.

#企业持仓成本线

Arthur Hayes: Will not bet a dollar on Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve starts its printing mode

Recently, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in a media interview that in the current market environment, he would not invest even 1 dollar in increasing his Bitcoin holdings until the Federal Reserve loosens monetary policy and starts printing money before making a decision.

Hayes indicated that this cautious stance mainly stems from the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. He pointed out that if the US-Iran conflict continues, the market is likely to face a severe liquidity crisis. At that time, both the stock market and Bitcoin could experience massive sell-offs.

Hayes even issued a warning that this geopolitical pressure could potentially lower Bitcoin prices below $60,000. If that happens, it could very well trigger a chain liquidation risk, dealing a heavy blow to the market.

Meanwhile, in response to the prevalent view that 'war is good for Bitcoin,' Hayes made a logical correction. He suggested that a more accurate statement should be 'printing money is good for Bitcoin.'

Hayes further explained that the longer the conflict lasts, the more likely the Federal Reserve will be forced to support America's 'war machine' through money printing.

Based on Hayes's judgment, he intends to patiently wait until the Federal Reserve restarts the printing press and implements loose monetary policy before entering the market.

Although before October last year, Hayes still held to his prediction that Bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of the year, given the current situation, he expressed the view that until the central bank clearly signals a monetary easing, 'cash is king' is a wiser strategic choice.

Overall, Hayes believes the market environment is rapidly changing, and in the absence of key signals, maintaining cash flexibility to cope with various potential risks can win the initiative for subsequent investment decisions.

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