奔跑财经-FinaceRun

The Japanese Financial Services Agency Clarifies Regulatory Position Through Revised Q&A: No Domestic Provision of Overseas Cryptocurrency ETF Derivative Trading

On December 9, the Japanese Financial Services Agency indicated through the revised Q&A that it will be difficult for Japan to relax restrictions on derivative products based on overseas cryptocurrency spot ETFs (such as Contracts for Difference, CFDs) in the short term, aiming to emphasize the importance of protecting investors' legitimate rights and interests.

The Japanese Financial Services Agency stated that offering such derivatives linked to overseas cryptocurrency asset ETFs domestically is considered an "undesirable investment target," primarily because no domestic cryptocurrency asset ETFs have been approved, and the relevant investor protection environment and institutional development are still insufficient.

Regulators believe that although these products are based on overseas ETFs, their prices are essentially highly correlated with spot cryptocurrency assets. Given the current inadequacies in risk disclosure mechanisms and institutional frameworks, a hasty opening could pose significant investment risks to the domestic financial market.

Currently, the impact of this regulatory signal is rapidly becoming apparent for businesses. In response to this policy, the globally renowned brokerage IG Securities has announced the cessation of CFD trading services based on the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF (such as IBIT) for Japanese users.

Meanwhile, the Japanese Financial Services Agency is actively tightening the channels for such "indirect" investments in cryptocurrencies through clear regulatory guidance, ensuring that all financial products operate within a protective framework that it deems sufficiently robust.

In summary, Japan's actions clearly reflect its prudent regulatory logic of "establish a solid foundation before opening up products" in the innovation field of cryptocurrency financial products.

Based on this regulatory direction, until domestic cryptocurrency ETFs are approved and the accompanying investor protection system is improved, investment channels relying on overseas cryptocurrency derivative products are expected to remain under strict control.

#日本金融厅 #加密ETF

BTC spot ETF saw a total net outflow of 60.48 million USD yesterday, while the Ethereum ETF recorded a total net inflow of 35.49 million USD.

On December 9th, according to Sosovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of 60.48 million USD yesterday, marking the first day of total capital outflow this week.

Among them, Grayscale's GBTC had the highest net outflow yesterday at 44.03 million USD (486.41 BTC), with a total net inflow of 25.09 billion USD for GBTC;

Followed by Fidelity's FBTC and VanEck HODL, which recorded net outflows of 39.44 million USD (435.71 BTC) and 5.76 million USD (63.64 BTC) respectively;

However, BlackRock's IBIT had a net inflow of 28.76 million USD (317.68 BTC) yesterday, making it the only BTC ETF with net inflow yesterday, with a total net inflow of 62.55 billion USD for IBIT;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 118.5 billion USD, accounting for 6.54% of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.56 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net inflow of 35.49 million USD, marking the first day of total capital inflow this week.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had a net inflow of 23.66 million USD (approximately 7,560 ETH) yesterday, with a cumulative net inflow of 13.11 billion USD for ETHA;

Followed by Grayscale's ETH, which recorded a single-day net inflow of 11.83 million USD (approximately 3,780 ETH), with a cumulative net inflow of 1.47 billion USD for ETHA;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 19.61 billion USD, accounting for 5.18% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.91 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

Paradigm Reveals Polymarket Data Bubble: Most Analysis Panels Have Significantly Overestimated Trading Volume Due to Duplicate Calculations

On December 9, the prominent investment firm Paradigm reported that most data statistics panels and third-party analysis results for the prediction market platform Polymarket have significantly overestimated trading volume due to the use of incorrect statistical methods.

The core flaw in this data statistic method lies in its direct aggregation of 'OrderFilled' events in Polymarket contracts, which also results in each successful trade being counted twice.

Paradigm pointed out that this duplicate counting has two negative effects. First, it inflates the number of completed contract trades, and second, it amplifies the real dollar cash flow. Therefore, the trading volume data presented in most reports may be far higher than the actual levels.

The firm further emphasized that for prediction markets like Polymarket, which use an order book model, only using unilateral trading volume (for example, counting only the trades from the taker or market maker) as a metric can accurately reflect true market activity.

In summary, this analysis successfully clarifies the long-standing common misconceptions about relevant data in the market, and for those investors, researchers, and media who rely on such data to evaluate Polymarket's scale, liquidity, and market influence, this conclusion holds significant corrective importance.

At the same time, this serves as a wake-up call for the entire prediction market. When evaluating complex on-chain derivative protocols, a more cautious approach must be taken to interpret and handle on-chain data, and judgments should not be made solely based on simple data accumulation to avoid cognitive biases and decision-making errors.

#Polymarket #Paradigm

Tether has obtained key regulatory approval in Abu Dhabi, providing strategic support for the global compliance path of USDT

On December 9, according to Tether's official announcement, its issued US dollar stablecoin USDT has obtained key regulatory approval in the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) in the UAE.

Specifically, ADGM has officially recognized USDT as an 'Approved Legal Reference Token' (AFRT), which allows financial institutions operating under the regulation of this market.

Currently, the token can legally conduct USDT-related business on nine mainstream blockchains, including Aptos, Celo, Cosmos, Kaia, Near, Polkadot, Tezos, TON, and TRON.

It is worth noting that this token operation license is a significant expansion of the ADGM regulatory framework. Previously, ADGM had approved the use of USDT on Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche networks.

Now, the scope of licensing covers almost all major blockchain ecosystems supported by Tether, indicating that the compliant use scenarios of USDT under ADGM jurisdiction have gained unprecedented breadth.

From a developmental perspective, it not only provides clear compliance paths and legal certainty for financial institutions using the world's largest stablecoin in a diverse multi-chain environment, but also significantly enhances the financial interoperability based on stablecoins between different blockchain networks.

In summary, this measure indicates that the UAE is becoming more mature and open in its regulatory practices as a global digital asset center, and its forward-looking rules provide a solid foundation for industry innovation.

This move not only provides a compliance path for Tether's development but also strengthens ADGM's position as an international hub for connectivity between traditional finance and the crypto field.

#Tether #阿布扎比

Aftermath of the U.S. Government Shutdown: October PPI and CPI Data Delayed, Market and Federal Reserve in Decision-Making Blind Spot

On December 9, it was reported that due to the previous funding interruption of the U.S. government leading to departmental shutdowns, the latest schedule released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the Producer Price Index (PPI) report for October 2025 will not be released as originally planned.

According to the latest arrangement, the October data will be postponed to January 14, 2026, and will be released together with the delayed PPI report for November 2025.

The impact of this data absence is extremely far-reaching. The PPI is a key indicator for measuring upstream wholesale price pressures and is also an important reference data for the Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation trends, especially providing crucial insights for its core focus on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE).

In addition, on the eve of the critical Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 10, the absence of this key data has directly resulted in a huge gap in the inflation observation window for a month.

More seriously, unlike the PPI, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was also severely affected by the shutdown in October and could not be released, further exacerbating the blind spot in inflation monitoring.

This also means that both the market and policymakers lack an entire month of official consumer and producer price data as a basis for judging the overall inflation path.

Overall, facing this series of data vacuums, the Federal Reserve will be forced to rely more on other indirect indicators and market surveys when formulating future monetary policy, which undoubtedly greatly increases the uncertainty and difficulty of decision-making and forecasting.

#美国劳工统计局 #PPI #CPI  

Institutional sentiment warming up? Global digital asset ETP saw a total net inflow of 716 million USD last week

According to Coinshares weekly report, as the market sentiment of institutional investors improves, the global digital asset ETP achieved a net inflow of 716 million USD last week, marking the second consecutive week of inflows.

Driven by this, the total assets under management (AUM) of global digital asset ETP have rebounded to 180.6 billion USD, a 7.9% increase from the November low, although it remains significantly below the historical peak of 264 billion USD.

From a regional distribution perspective, the US market topped the inflow with 483 million USD, followed by Germany and Canada, which attracted 96.9 million USD and 80.7 million USD, respectively. This inflow trend indicates that the recovery of market sentiment is not a localized phenomenon but a collective drive across multiple major markets.

In terms of asset categories, Bitcoin remains the core target for inflows, with a net inflow of 352 million USD last week. Meanwhile, the short Bitcoin ETP saw a weekly outflow of 18.7 million USD, setting a new record for the largest weekly outflow since March 2025. This phenomenon is also seen as a sign that market pessimism may have reached a temporary bottom.

At the same time, some altcoins have also attracted significant market attention. XRP's weekly inflow was close to 245 million USD, with a cumulative inflow of 3.1 billion USD year-to-date, far exceeding market expectations; while Chainlink set a record with a historical weekly inflow of 52.8 million USD, reflecting its high market heat and capital concentration.

However, daily data from last week indicated that inflows were not smooth sailing, with small outflows occurring on Thursday and Friday due to the release of US inflation data. This phenomenon suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty remains a key variable affecting short-term capital flows.

In summary, last week’s capital data clearly reflected that institutional funds are returning to the crypto market in a diversified manner, with increased allocation to Bitcoin and some altcoins, while the withdrawal from short Bitcoin ETP further reinforces expectations of market bottoming.

Nevertheless, the comprehensive recovery of investor sentiment and capital scale will still depend on macroeconomic shifts (such as the Federal Reserve stabilizing its interest rate cut path) and whether cryptocurrencies can form a new strong fundamental narrative. However, before that, the market recovery process will be fraught with twists and turns.

#加密货币ETP #投资趋势

Analyst Warning: Key Technical Support Levels Resonating with the Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy Meeting, Bitcoin's Downside Risks Intensify

According to the latest market analysis, Bitcoin's price is hovering at a crucial technical juncture. Analyst Daan Crypto points out that the current Fibonacci retracement area around 0.382 is a key support level that bulls must defend.

Once this defense line is breached, the market is likely to open up further downside space, heading towards the April lows (around $75,000), at which point the structure of the entire upward cycle will be severely tested.

In fact, the market's fragility has recently become apparent. Just on Sunday night, Bitcoin's price briefly plummeted below $88,000, which is widely seen as a precise “cleaning” targeting high-leverage positions during the thin liquidity weekend period.

However, as both long and short parties' significant leverage positions were simultaneously forced to close, the price subsequently rebounded above $91,500, highlighting the current market's high volatility and leverage risks.

Meanwhile, the market's core focus has completely shifted to the monetary policy meetings held on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. The current market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 0.25% in December, but some analysts point out that this rate cut expectation has been fully priced in by the market; what is truly critical is the economic outlook statement released after the Federal Reserve meeting.

If the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve conveys hawkish or cautious signals, suggesting that the future rate cut path will be “non-linear and data-dependent,” it might recreate a market situation similar to that in October. Therefore, this action would not only fail to inject new momentum into the market but could also continue to exert moderate pressure before the end of the year.

In summary, Bitcoin is at a dual game of technical and macro factors. On one hand, it needs to hold key technical support to prevent structural damage; on the other hand, the market's direction will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's guidance on future monetary policy.

In the context of a sluggish trading volume in the crypto market, coupled with continuous net outflows of spot ETF funds, analysts generally believe that the downside risks of the market have significantly exceeded its upside potential, and any macro signals that fall short of expectations could become a catalyst for testing key support.

#比特币 #美联储议息会议

South Korea's cryptocurrency ETF launch within the year is unlikely: due to a shift in policy focus, market expectations have turned to 2026

According to a report by Korean media on December 8, the plan for the South Korean financial regulator to approve cryptocurrency spot ETF trading within the year has basically fallen through. This delay is mainly due to the failure to complete the necessary amendments to the Capital Markets Act, which are essential for advancing the plan, thus hindering the expected compliant investment channel.

It is understood that there are currently four legal amendment proposals directly related to the approval of cryptocurrency spot ETFs that are still pending.

The core reason for this situation lies in the dispersion of policy resources, the ongoing institutional restructuring within the South Korean Financial Services Commission and the Financial Supervisory Service, as well as the government's main focus on boosting the traditional stock market and other priority economic agendas.

These factors collectively place the institutionalization process of crypto assets in a relatively lower position in the decision-making priorities.

This policy shift contrasts with the proactive stance exhibited by the new government earlier this year. At that time, the Financial Services Commission clearly listed "building a digital asset ecosystem" as a national agenda and announced a detailed roadmap aimed at launching cryptocurrency spot ETFs in the second half of 2025.

Analysts point out that, given that this issue has ultimately not been included in the government's highest priority strategic focus, combined with the vast number of legal provisions that need to be reviewed and amended, the advancement process is fraught with challenges and may ultimately lead to a failure of the plan within the year.

With the potential failure of the year-end target, the market's focus has shifted to 2026. Whether the approval of South Korea's cryptocurrency ETF can be obtained on schedule will depend on the position of the new regulatory team after the completion of institutional restructuring and whether the relevant legal amendments can gain sufficient political momentum and priority in the new year’s parliamentary review.

For South Korea's large cryptocurrency asset holding community and the demand of the world's second-largest cryptocurrency trading market, this delay means that institutional investors still cannot participate in cryptocurrency investment conveniently and compliantly through traditional financial institutions.

In summary, in financial innovations like cryptocurrency spot ETFs that completely rely on policy promotion, the clarity of the legal regulatory framework and the priority of the issue in the government's agenda are key to determining whether the project can be successfully implemented.

#韩国 #加密货币ETF

The U.S. BTC and ETH ETFs saw a net outflow of over $153 million last week.

According to SoSoValue data, the U.S. BTC spot ETF had a net outflow of $87.77 million last week, marking the first week of fund outflow this month;

Among them, ARK 21Shares ARKB had the highest net outflow of $77.86 million last week, with a total inflow of $1.75 billion so far;

Next were BlackRock's IBIT and Grayscale's GBTC, which recorded net outflows of $48.99 million and $29.77 million, respectively;

Meanwhile, VanEck HODL and Grayscale BTC recorded net outflows of $2.95 million and $0.4115 million last week, respectively;

Notably, Fidelity's FBTC, Bitwise BITB, and WisdomTree BTCW saw net inflows of $61.96 million, $9.3 million, and $0.9472 million, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $117.11 billion, accounting for 6.57% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $57.62 billion.

In the same week, the Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of nearly $65.59 million, marking the first week of fund outflow since December.

Among them, BlackRock's ETHA had the highest net outflow of nearly $55.87 million last week, with a total net inflow of $13.09 billion so far;

Next were Grayscale's ETHE and VanEck ETHV, which recorded net outflows of $53.17 million and $4.03 million last week, respectively;

Meanwhile, Fidelity's FETH, Grayscale's ETH, and Bitwise ETHW saw net inflows of $35.50 million, $7.51 million, and $4.48 million, respectively;

As of now, the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs is $18.94 billion, accounting for 5.19% of Ethereum's total market capitalization, with a cumulative net inflow of $12.88 billion.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

The U.S. Department of Justice seeks a 12-year prison sentence for Terra founder Do Kwon in a $40 billion fraud case.

According to the latest court documents, the U.S. Department of Justice is seeking the maximum sentence of 12 years in prison for Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon.

This sentencing request is based on a plea agreement reached by both parties in August this year, when Do Kwon admitted to charges of conspiracy to commit fraud and wire fraud, while the prosecution promised that the sentence would not exceed 12 years. Now, prosecutors are advocating for this maximum penalty based on that agreement.

The prosecutors specifically emphasized the issue of sentencing consistency in their submitted documents, pointing out the need to avoid "unreasonable sentencing disparities" with similar cases, especially when compared to FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who has already been sentenced to 25 years. Do Kwon's final sentence will be decided by a judge in Manhattan Federal Court on December 11.

The 34-year-old South Korean citizen Do Kwon became embroiled in a global financial crisis in 2022. The two cryptocurrencies he created, UST and LUNA, quickly became worthless, with market values evaporating by over $40 billion, triggering a chain crisis in the cryptocurrency market. This crisis also affected FTX and several other well-known companies.

Prosecutors believe that Do Kwon's crimes led to over $40 billion in losses for investors, with the scale and "contagion effect" causing widespread shock to the cryptocurrency market, the severity of which even exceeds that of Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky (who was sentenced to 12 years for involvement of about $5 billion). Therefore, a 12-year sentence is deemed reasonable and necessary.

The prosecution also rebutted the defense team of Do Kwon, which had previously suggested a request for a reduction of about 5 years. The lawyers attempted to use Do Kwon's "youth and inexperience" as a defense, trying to compare him to Mashinsky to obtain a shorter sentence.

However, the Department of Justice emphasized that Do Kwon's actions of fleeing using a fake passport after committing the crime further exacerbated his culpability. The prosecution believes that the nature of Do Kwon's crimes is serious and should be severely punished by law. This statement also marks the U.S. government's continued determination to hold accountable for cryptocurrency fraud cases.

Finally, do you think that in this emerging field of cryptocurrency, sentencing should pay more attention to its "industry specificity" for lenient consideration, or should it adhere to strict standards like traditional financial crimes?

#DoKwon #加密货币欺诈

From Aggressive Accumulation to Financial Defense: Strategy is Establishing a Bear Market Response Strategy with $1.44 Billion in Cash Reserves

According to the CryptoQuant Weekly Report, Strategy, the world's largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder, is making significant adjustments to its financial strategy, aiming to build a brand new 'dual reserve' operating model.

The core of this model is to establish an independent cash reserve of over $1.44 billion while managing its core Bitcoin reserve valued at approximately $59 billion.

The primary purpose of building a massive cash reserve is to provide assurance for fixed liabilities over the next 12 to 24 months. This fund will be specifically used to pay preferred stock dividends (approximately $700 million annually), convertible bond interest, and to meet short-term liquidity needs during capital market contractions.

The fundamental goal is to ensure that the company does not have to be forced to sell its Bitcoin holdings at low prices to fulfill financial obligations in any market environment, especially during a prolonged bear market or liquidity crisis.

This strategic shift is fully reflected in the significant changes in its BTC purchasing behavior. Data shows that Strategy's monthly Bitcoin purchases have plummeted from a peak of 134,000 coins in 2024 to 9,100 coins in November 2025, with only 130 coins purchased so far this month.

Strategy's near 'halt in purchases' indicates that the company has moved away from its singular offensive strategy of 'issuing stock and using the proceeds to buy Bitcoin' that it employed over the past five years, instead opting for a more defensive posture focused on risk management and financial stability.

Therefore, the impact of this measure on the Bitcoin market is complex and dialectical. From a short-term demand perspective, the purchasing power of one of the market's most significant buyers has significantly weakened, undoubtedly diminishing some of the direct momentum for price increases.

However, from a long-term stability perspective, the massive cash reserves greatly reduce Strategy's tail risk of being 'forced to sell' Bitcoin due to future liquidity crises, eliminating a significant uncertainty for the market.

Overall, although this action may not be directly beneficial for the market, by providing a financial safety net for the largest 'whale,' it offers a more solid and less 'panic sell' risk foundation for the Bitcoin market in the long run.

#Strategy #比特币

Bitcoin has attracted $732 billion in this cycle, and the current market structure has entered a new phase of low volatility and institutionalization.

According to the latest report jointly released by Glassnode and Fasanara Digital, Bitcoin has attracted a record $732 billion in new capital inflows during the market cycle from 2022 to 2025.

This figure not only far exceeds any previous independent cycle but also surpasses the total inflow of capital from all prior cycles, marking the market's entry into an unprecedented new phase.

Moreover, the continuous influx of massive capital has fundamentally changed Bitcoin's market structure. Firstly, it has driven Bitcoin's "realized market cap" (reflecting the total value of actual on-chain investment costs) to a historic high of $1.1 trillion, establishing an exceptionally solid value foundation for the price.

Secondly, the market has shown more institutional characteristics, larger scale, and calmer trading. Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has significantly decreased from 73% to 53%, and the expansion of market depth has led to a structural decline in volatility. Although short-term fluctuations still exist, overall market behavior has become more mature.

The report also points out that the capital in this cycle has mainly entered the ecosystem through new channels such as stablecoin liquidity, U.S. spot ETFs, and tokenized assets, which is starkly different from previous cycles that primarily relied on retail investors making direct purchases.

At the same time, Bitcoin's market share has significantly increased, rising from 40.50% in November 2022 to the current 59.41%. In contrast, the market shares of Ethereum and other altcoins have been squeezed, reflecting that capital is preferentially flowing towards Bitcoin, which is viewed as a “core asset” during the cycle.

In summary, the report depicts a development landscape for the Bitcoin market driven by institutional-level capital. The fundamental transformation in capital scale, market structure, and investor composition collectively drives Bitcoin into a new pattern characterized by greater liquidity, milder volatility, and Bitcoin dominance.

#比特币 #Glassnode

SEC Chairman's Prediction: Cryptocurrency Will Become the New Foundation of Global Finance in the Coming Years

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins recently made a significant prediction in an interview, stating that Bitcoin and a broader range of crypto assets will become the foundational basis of the global financial system in the coming years, "this will be the direction of world development."

This statement echoes the SEC's recent push for upgrading financial infrastructure, which is centered on the systematic transition of the traditional financial system towards crypto-native technology, particularly the “on-chain migration” of securities assets.

The SEC Chairman likened this transformation to the revolution in the music industry from vinyl records to digital audio, believing that blockchain technology can transparently distribute rights through smart contracts, activate illiquid assets, and create entirely new models for issuance, trading, and holding in the capital markets, just as MP3 fundamentally changed the audio distribution landscape.

Specifically, the transformation involves not only asset tokenization but also the on-chain reconstruction of traditional financial infrastructure. Previously, market experts predicted that all markets in the U.S. might achieve on-chain operation and settlement within the next 2 years, realizing clearer ownership confirmation through blockchain.

This transformation is not without precedent; it is built on the new regulatory framework for crypto assets that the SEC is constructing. Regulatory agencies have clearly stated that they will move away from the past model of "enforcement as policy" and instead establish clear standards for the issuance, custody, and trading of crypto assets through formal rules, optimized exemption clauses, and improved disclosure guidelines.

For example, regarding issuance, the SEC plans to adjust traditional registration forms to fit the characteristics of crypto assets; in terms of custody, it will abolish restrictive accounting rules and clarify the definition of “qualified custodians”; however, in trading, it will support brokers in creating integrated service platforms for securities and crypto assets. All these measures aim to solidify the U.S.'s leadership position in the global crypto space.

In summary, although Bitcoin has speculative and high volatility characteristics, as the dominant player in the crypto asset market, it is clearly defined as a non-security, making it more akin to a tool for value storage.

This series of statements and reform measures from the SEC is building a systematic framework and development path for the transition of the traditional financial system to crypto technology, emphasizing both innovation and risk control.

#SEC #金融系统

BTC spot ETF had a total net inflow of 54.79 million USD yesterday, while ETH ETF experienced a total net outflow of 75.21 million USD in a single day.

On December 6th, according to Sosovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of nearly 54.79 million USD yesterday, marking the third day of total net inflows this week.

Among them, Ark & 21Shares ARKB and Fidelity FBTC recorded net inflows of 42.79 million USD (478.17 BTC) and 27.29 million USD (304.92 BTC) respectively yesterday;

Next were VanEck HODL, Bitwise BITB, and WisdomTree BTCW, which recorded net inflows of 11.39 million USD (127.26 BTC), 4.86 million USD (54.35 BTC), and 0.9472 million USD (10.58 BTC) respectively yesterday;

However, BlackRock IBIT recorded a net outflow of 32.49 million USD (363.07 BTC), becoming the only BTC ETF to experience a net outflow yesterday, with a total cumulative net inflow of 62.52 billion USD;

As of now, the total asset net value of Bitcoin spot ETF is 117.11 billion USD, accounting for 6.57% of the total market capitalization of Bitcoin, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.62 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF recorded a total net outflow of 75.21 million USD, marking the fourth day of total net outflows this week.

Among them, BlackRock ETHA recorded a total net outflow of 75.21 million USD (approximately 24,790 ETH), becoming the only ETH ETF to experience a net outflow yesterday, with a cumulative net inflow of 13.09 billion USD;

As of now, the total asset net value of Ethereum spot ETF is 18.94 billion USD, accounting for 5.19% of the total market capitalization of Ethereum, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.88 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF

CryptoQuant: The BTC market has entered a structural adjustment phase, and the risk of continued decline remains high.

On December 5, the blockchain data analysis agency CryptoQuant released an analysis report stating that the Bitcoin market has entered a deep and potentially long 'structural adjustment phase.'

According to the profit and loss ratio chart provided, the current market state is similar to the early characteristics of the previous cycle (2022-2023) bear market, during which a similar adjustment lasted nearly a year.

The report reveals the severe current market situation through multiple key on-chain indicators. Among them, the 'profit and loss score' indicator, which reflects the overall profitability level of the market, shows that the current market has entered the historical bear market area.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price has retraced from its historical high by as much as -32%, and this drop has exceeded the typical range of cyclical corrections, indicating that the current market is in an intermediate area between 'deep correction' and 'ultimate bottoming out.'

In summary, this series of signals indicates that the market is undergoing fundamental structural reorganization rather than short-term fluctuations.

The analysis suggests that unless there are clear signs of improvement in the macroeconomic environment (such as Federal Reserve policy, inflation trends) and on-chain fundamentals (such as new addresses, long-term holder behavior), the risk of continued market decline remains very high.

Analysts further emphasize that the market's ultimate recovery requires not only time for sedimentation but also a deep reshuffling of the market's profit and loss structure and a complete shift in institutional investor sentiment.

The report concludes that until clear signs of improvement appear, investors should remain vigilant about the possibility of further market bottoms.

#BTC #结构性调整

Nearly $4 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, with analysts claiming their impact on the spot market is limited.

As of today at 16:00, more than 36,100 Bitcoin options contracts with a notional value of $3.336 billion are about to expire. However, due to the relatively small scale of this expiration compared to recent levels and the current market stabilizing after Monday's extreme fluctuations, analysts generally believe that the likelihood of significant market volatility triggered solely by this expiration is low.

The market's relative calm is related to the structure of the contracts themselves. According to Deribit data, the put/call ratio for the Bitcoin options expiring today is close to 0.93, indicating that the forces of bulls and bears are almost balanced, with neither side holding a decisive advantage.

Market attention is more focused on the open positions that have not yet expired, with the total open interest in Bitcoin options across all exchanges nearing $55 billion. Among these, contracts with a strike price of $100,000 have accumulated the largest open positions, while the range of $80,000 to $85,000 has also built up nearly $2 billion in short positions, making these price levels the key battleground in the future.

It is worth noting that while the impact of a single expiration is limited, the options market itself is undergoing structural expansion. Taking Deribit as an example, its Bitcoin options trading volume for October 2025 has set a historical monthly record, with annual trading volume significantly increased compared to the same period last year.

Traders currently have mixed emotions, showing a "cautiously bullish inclination" as they anticipate that prices have bottomed, while also feeling frustrated by the market's repeated fluctuations.

In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum options worth approximately $664 million are also expiring today. In total, the notional value of cryptocurrency options expiring today is about $4 billion. In the spot market, Bitcoin's price has slightly retreated after encountering resistance at $93,000, while altcoins generally face greater selling pressure.

Meanwhile, overall market attention has shifted to the U.S. ADP employment data and how it may affect the market's expectation of a 87% interest rate cut ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, which could become a more critical factor in determining the short-term direction.

#比特币期权 #期权到期

BTC and ETH spot ETFs had a dual net outflow yesterday, with a total net outflow exceeding 236 million USD in a single day.

On December 5th, according to Sosovalue data, the US BTC spot ETF recorded a net outflow of nearly 195 million USD, marking a total net outflow of funds for two consecutive days. Among the 12 BTC ETFs yesterday, none saw a net inflow of funds.

Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had the highest net outflow yesterday at nearly 113 million USD (approximately 1,230 BTC), and currently, IBIT has a cumulative net inflow of 62.55 billion USD;

Next is Fidelity's FBTC, which saw a net outflow of 54.2 million USD (588.01 BTC) yesterday, and currently, FBTC has a cumulative net inflow of 12.06 billion USD;

VanEck HODL, Grayscale's GBTC, and Bitwise BITB recorded net outflows of 14.34 million USD (155.51 BTC), 10.13 million USD (109.93 BTC), and 3.01 million USD (31.61 BTC), respectively;

As of now, the total asset net value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is 120.68 billion USD, accounting for 6.54% of the total Bitcoin market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 57.56 billion USD.

On the same day, the US Ethereum spot ETF had a net outflow of 41.57 million USD, marking the third day of total net outflow of funds this week.

Among them, Grayscale's ETHE and ETH recorded net outflows of 30.96 million USD (approximately 9,900 ETH) and 21.04 million USD (approximately 6,730 ETH) yesterday;

Next is Fidelity's FETH, which had a net outflow of 17.92 million USD (approximately 5,730 ETH) yesterday;

BlackRock's ETHA had a net inflow of 28.35 million USD (approximately 9,070 ETH), being the only ETH ETF with a net inflow yesterday, and currently, ETHA has a cumulative net inflow of 13.17 billion USD;

As of now, the total asset net value of Ethereum spot ETFs is 19.64 billion USD, accounting for 5.18% of the total Ethereum market capitalization, with a cumulative total net inflow of 12.95 billion USD.

#比特币ETF #以太坊ETF