BTC market prices have digested the March CPI inflation expectations

According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on March 11, inflation in the U.S. rose slightly in February, but the market reacted relatively calmly.

Analysts in the cryptocurrency sector believe that although such inflation data largely meets market expectations, the upcoming March CPI data may have already been priced in by the market.

The February CPI report shows a general upward trend in various data. Among them, energy prices increased by 0.6%, food prices rose by 0.4%, housing costs went up by 0.2%, and after excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI still maintained its upward momentum.

Meanwhile, prices in multiple sectors, including healthcare, clothing, household goods, airline tickets, and education, have shown varying degrees of increase, indicating that inflation has a strong foundation and is unlikely to dissipate quickly in the short term.

It is worth noting that after the data was released, the cryptocurrency market showed a certain degree of resilience. The Total 3 metric, which tracks the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH, only fell less than 1% from an intraday high of approximately $717.3 billion.

21Shares macroeconomic director Stephen Coltman stated that the upcoming CPI data adds significant pressure to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for interest rate decisions, making its rate decisions face difficult choices.

Regarding this dilemma, Coltman further questioned whether the Federal Reserve would “look the other way” on temporary shocks or learn from the lessons of the last inflation cycle to take preventive measures and maintain a hawkish stance? This is undoubtedly a focal point that the market urgently seeks to answer.

Strategy researcher Matt Mena believes that although Bitcoin is consolidating in the range of $68,000 to $74,000 in the short term, the timing for breaking through the key resistance level of $75,000 is ripe; once effectively broken, the mid-term price will directly enter a new stage of $75,000 to $80,000.

Historically, after geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin often rebounds strongly by more than 15%, reaching the range of approximately $77,000 to $80,000. If the FOMC resumes rate cuts in 2026, this rebound process will be further “accelerated.”

According to CME FedWatch tool data, currently only 0.7% of traders expect a rate cut in March, indicating that the market does not have overly high expectations for a loose interest rate policy in the short term.

#CPI数据 #Federal Reserve interest rates