非农
43,377 views
62 Discussing
Hot
Latest
See original
This week, the cryptocurrency market will face two major events that could trigger significant volatility! The U.S. non-farm payroll data for November will be released on December 16, along with the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on December 19.
In the current market environment, the impact of U.S. non-farm data on cryptocurrencies shows an 'abnormal' logic— the weaker the employment data, the better it is for crypto. This is because non-farm data that is weaker than expected (for example, new jobs far below 50,000 or an unemployment rate higher than 4.4%) means that the U.S. economy is cooling, which will strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. A low interest rate environment will drive funds into high-risk assets, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum often see significant increases as a result; historically, in similar scenarios, daily gains can reach 10% or more. Conversely, if non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations (new jobs over 150,000), it may lead to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, putting strong selling pressure on the crypto market, with short-term declines possibly reaching 8-15%.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is almost certain to raise interest rates on the 19th (from 0.5% to 0.75%), marking the highest level in thirty years. This action will boost the yen's exchange rate and accelerate the unwinding of 'carry trades,' pulling funds out of risk assets, which poses a significant negative impact on cryptocurrencies. The yen carry trade unwinding in the summer of 2024 has previously triggered a flash crash in Bitcoin.
In summary:
If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, and Japan raises interest rates slightly as anticipated, the two may partially offset each other, with the crypto market potentially showing fluctuations under high volatility, with price changes within ±8%.
The worst-case scenario is if the non-farm data is stronger than expected combined with interest rate hikes from Japan, leading to a significant decline in crypto, with a possible drop of 10-20%.
The most optimistic scenario is if non-farm data is extremely weak, and Japan unexpectedly adopts a dovish stance (not raising interest rates or signaling easing), which may lead to a strong rebound in cryptocurrencies, with weekly gains exceeding 20%.
In short, the crypto market will be extremely sensitive this week, with very high short-term volatility risks. Investors need to closely monitor the deviation between the actual non-farm numbers and expectations, as well as the hawkish or dovish tone of the Bank of Japan's post-meeting statements, and implement strict risk control. In the long term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle remains the main driver, but the normalization of Japanese monetary policy has become a new variable that cannot be ignored. #非农 #日本加息
In the current market environment, the impact of U.S. non-farm data on cryptocurrencies shows an 'abnormal' logic— the weaker the employment data, the better it is for crypto. This is because non-farm data that is weaker than expected (for example, new jobs far below 50,000 or an unemployment rate higher than 4.4%) means that the U.S. economy is cooling, which will strengthen expectations for the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts. A low interest rate environment will drive funds into high-risk assets, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum often see significant increases as a result; historically, in similar scenarios, daily gains can reach 10% or more. Conversely, if non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations (new jobs over 150,000), it may lead to a cooling of interest rate cut expectations, putting strong selling pressure on the crypto market, with short-term declines possibly reaching 8-15%.
At the same time, the Bank of Japan is almost certain to raise interest rates on the 19th (from 0.5% to 0.75%), marking the highest level in thirty years. This action will boost the yen's exchange rate and accelerate the unwinding of 'carry trades,' pulling funds out of risk assets, which poses a significant negative impact on cryptocurrencies. The yen carry trade unwinding in the summer of 2024 has previously triggered a flash crash in Bitcoin.
In summary:
If the non-farm data is weaker than expected, and Japan raises interest rates slightly as anticipated, the two may partially offset each other, with the crypto market potentially showing fluctuations under high volatility, with price changes within ±8%.
The worst-case scenario is if the non-farm data is stronger than expected combined with interest rate hikes from Japan, leading to a significant decline in crypto, with a possible drop of 10-20%.
The most optimistic scenario is if non-farm data is extremely weak, and Japan unexpectedly adopts a dovish stance (not raising interest rates or signaling easing), which may lead to a strong rebound in cryptocurrencies, with weekly gains exceeding 20%.
In short, the crypto market will be extremely sensitive this week, with very high short-term volatility risks. Investors need to closely monitor the deviation between the actual non-farm numbers and expectations, as well as the hawkish or dovish tone of the Bank of Japan's post-meeting statements, and implement strict risk control. In the long term, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle remains the main driver, but the normalization of Japanese monetary policy has become a new variable that cannot be ignored. #非农 #日本加息
See original
💥💥💥Big one is coming
Tonight #非农 is making a heavy debut! This is the first monthly employment data released after the U.S. shutdown of 43 days, full of gold content.
Weak data 👉 Expectations for Fed easing rise, risk assets warm up, BTC could soar directly
Data exceeding expectations 👉 Rate cut expectations get doused with cold water, cryptocurrency prices under pressure, corrections and even chain liquidations are not surprising
In the short term, almost all eyes are on this evening🔥🔥🔥
Is it an accelerator for the year-end market or will it directly hit the brakes? We will soon find out.
Keep a close eye on the data, don't rush in $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Ripple拟建10亿美元XRP储备 #美股2026预测 #美联储FOMC会议
Tonight #非农 is making a heavy debut! This is the first monthly employment data released after the U.S. shutdown of 43 days, full of gold content.
Weak data 👉 Expectations for Fed easing rise, risk assets warm up, BTC could soar directly
Data exceeding expectations 👉 Rate cut expectations get doused with cold water, cryptocurrency prices under pressure, corrections and even chain liquidations are not surprising
In the short term, almost all eyes are on this evening🔥🔥🔥
Is it an accelerator for the year-end market or will it directly hit the brakes? We will soon find out.
Keep a close eye on the data, don't rush in $BTC $ETH $SOL
#Ripple拟建10亿美元XRP储备 #美股2026预测 #美联储FOMC会议
See original
Is the black swan coming? This week is really not easy. Major events are clustered together, and the market nerves are on high alert throughout. Federal Reserve officials are continuously adopting a hawkish stance, ready to cool down interest rate cut expectations at any time; on November #非农 and #cpi , both good and bad scenarios could directly alter the market rhythm; in addition, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates has been set by the market at over 70%, and global liquidity expectations are facing repricing. #美联储降息
To put it simply, this week is not about being bullish or bearish, but about surviving first. Risk control is more important than direction; do not underestimate the impact of data on the market.
To put it simply, this week is not about being bullish or bearish, but about surviving first. Risk control is more important than direction; do not underestimate the impact of data on the market.
铭亿mecoin互关:
我手法太菜了 有没有大佬带带我怎么看这走势啊
See original
#BinanceABCs #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #非农 $BTC Year-end big drop
The big pie must fall back below 80,000
The upper short position area is between 90,000 and 92,000!
Pending orders await the arrival of a ten thousand point space.
The big pie must fall back below 80,000
The upper short position area is between 90,000 and 92,000!
Pending orders await the arrival of a ten thousand point space.
See original
What is the US non-farm payrolls data and what impact will it have on the market
The U.S. non-farm data will be released tonight. Against the backdrop of interest rate cuts in Canada and Europe, this non-farm data is crucial and may very well affect whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. So what is non-farm data, and what impact will its different data have on the market?
=================
The U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data is an important economic indicator released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reflecting the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the U.S. last month. This data is usually released on the first Friday of each month and is considered one of the key indicators for measuring the health of the U.S. economy.
=================
The U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data is an important economic indicator released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), reflecting the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector in the U.S. last month. This data is usually released on the first Friday of each month and is considered one of the key indicators for measuring the health of the U.S. economy.
See original
Cryptocurrency Logic Revealed: How Long Can We Play the Expectation Game?
Brothers, the current market seems a bit confusing at first glance, but upon closer inspection, the logic is quite clear. The market has been trading on two expectations: one is the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the second is the major positive impact of ETFs. It sounds great, but the reality is still far off! Until it materializes, it’s all just a ‘castle in the air.’ For Bitcoin, as long as the interest rate cuts are not realized, we are not yet in true danger. From a technical perspective, we could either see a large-scale triangular convergence and a rise, or we could head directly into a major upward wave; both scenarios could push the price to new highs. The upcoming drama is worth watching! Is the market grinding on you? Lying flat is the way to go!
Recently, the market has indeed been a bit torturous, with altcoins rising in turn, but the general direction has not yet been determined. What’s the best strategy at this stage? Hold your spot and lie flat! Rather than staring at the market anxiously, it's better to focus back on life and not let the fluctuations ruin your mood. In the end, if you make money but lose your health and happiness, it’s simply not worth it. Making money and living well can absolutely be a win-win; just find the right balance. The process might be a bit torturous, but a good result is all that matters! As a side note: leverage is something to avoid!
Personally, I never recommend that everyone recklessly use leverage. When there’s a big opportunity, I’ll shout out, hoping my brothers can make some money, but I also fear that you might get addicted. Contract leverage is just a big casino; thinking of getting rich through this? Don't dream! At most, it’s just for entertainment. Whether it's spot or leverage, I will shout out in advance, and never be an ‘after-the-fact’ expert; one must have a bottom line. New opportunity: $ai16zh is waiting for you to hop on!
The market is grinding, so why not find something fresh? Recently, ai16zh.me has an event, giving away $ai16zh tokens for free, and inviting new users can earn additional rewards. This is a potential player; getting in early might just lead to the next wave of surprises. Click in to take a look, and while lying flat, you can conveniently grab an airdrop; living well and making money simultaneously! #ai16zh #非农 Employment data is coming #特朗普签署行政命 Order $BTC
Brothers, the current market seems a bit confusing at first glance, but upon closer inspection, the logic is quite clear. The market has been trading on two expectations: one is the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the second is the major positive impact of ETFs. It sounds great, but the reality is still far off! Until it materializes, it’s all just a ‘castle in the air.’ For Bitcoin, as long as the interest rate cuts are not realized, we are not yet in true danger. From a technical perspective, we could either see a large-scale triangular convergence and a rise, or we could head directly into a major upward wave; both scenarios could push the price to new highs. The upcoming drama is worth watching! Is the market grinding on you? Lying flat is the way to go!
Recently, the market has indeed been a bit torturous, with altcoins rising in turn, but the general direction has not yet been determined. What’s the best strategy at this stage? Hold your spot and lie flat! Rather than staring at the market anxiously, it's better to focus back on life and not let the fluctuations ruin your mood. In the end, if you make money but lose your health and happiness, it’s simply not worth it. Making money and living well can absolutely be a win-win; just find the right balance. The process might be a bit torturous, but a good result is all that matters! As a side note: leverage is something to avoid!
Personally, I never recommend that everyone recklessly use leverage. When there’s a big opportunity, I’ll shout out, hoping my brothers can make some money, but I also fear that you might get addicted. Contract leverage is just a big casino; thinking of getting rich through this? Don't dream! At most, it’s just for entertainment. Whether it's spot or leverage, I will shout out in advance, and never be an ‘after-the-fact’ expert; one must have a bottom line. New opportunity: $ai16zh is waiting for you to hop on!
The market is grinding, so why not find something fresh? Recently, ai16zh.me has an event, giving away $ai16zh tokens for free, and inviting new users can earn additional rewards. This is a potential player; getting in early might just lead to the next wave of surprises. Click in to take a look, and while lying flat, you can conveniently grab an airdrop; living well and making money simultaneously! #ai16zh #非农 Employment data is coming #特朗普签署行政命 Order $BTC
See original
🔥【Magical Non-Farm Payroll Shakes the Market! Employment and Unemployment Both Soar?】
Tonight's non-farm payroll report is simply outrageous! The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double expectations! But even more magical is that the unemployment rate rose instead of falling, soaring to 4.4%, a two-year high!
How fragmented is this data?
🎯 Hawks see: Employment booming, economy worry-free, why rush to cut rates?
🎯 Doves see: Unemployment warning, recession ahead, if rates aren't cut soon it will be too late!
Even the Federal Reserve would be silent after this... The most critical part of this report is that — the U.S. government is facing a shutdown, data will be cut off! This has become the only reliable reference for the coming weeks; the market is entering “blind flight mode”!
💥 The market reaction was incredibly stimulating:
· U.S. Treasury yields bouncing up and down
· U.S. dollar index jumping left and right
· Traders collectively caught in “December rate cut guessing game”
⚠️ Urgent Reminder:
This is neither good nor bad news,
This is a super doubling in the market's chaotic period!
Volatility is off the charts —
Light positions! Stop losses! Surviving is more important than making money!
(Data details: Previous value 22,000, expected 50,000, actual 119,000, unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.4%)
#非农 #美联储利率决议即将公布 #经济数据 #投资风险
Tonight's non-farm payroll report is simply outrageous! The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double expectations! But even more magical is that the unemployment rate rose instead of falling, soaring to 4.4%, a two-year high!
How fragmented is this data?
🎯 Hawks see: Employment booming, economy worry-free, why rush to cut rates?
🎯 Doves see: Unemployment warning, recession ahead, if rates aren't cut soon it will be too late!
Even the Federal Reserve would be silent after this... The most critical part of this report is that — the U.S. government is facing a shutdown, data will be cut off! This has become the only reliable reference for the coming weeks; the market is entering “blind flight mode”!
💥 The market reaction was incredibly stimulating:
· U.S. Treasury yields bouncing up and down
· U.S. dollar index jumping left and right
· Traders collectively caught in “December rate cut guessing game”
⚠️ Urgent Reminder:
This is neither good nor bad news,
This is a super doubling in the market's chaotic period!
Volatility is off the charts —
Light positions! Stop losses! Surviving is more important than making money!
(Data details: Previous value 22,000, expected 50,000, actual 119,000, unemployment rate rose from 4.2% to 4.4%)
#非农 #美联储利率决议即将公布 #经济数据 #投资风险
See original
The data released for July #PCE from the United States all met expectations. The first item in the previously mentioned best-case scenario (July PCE meets expectations, August non-farm continues to be weak and cannot exceed expectations, and August CPI continues to be moderate) has been fulfilled, at least dispelling concerns raised by the significantly higher-than-expected July PPI.
Next up is the #非农 data coming out next Friday, which ideally should be close to expectations (a very small deviation, whether it meets, is slightly lower, or slightly higher is acceptable), as this would basically confirm a rate cut in September;
If it's far below expectations, it could raise expectations for a stronger rate cut, but the market would have to bear some concerns about a recession with a small impact;
If it's far above expectations, it would naturally be the worst for the market, and the path for rate cuts would have to change.
Next up is the #非农 data coming out next Friday, which ideally should be close to expectations (a very small deviation, whether it meets, is slightly lower, or slightly higher is acceptable), as this would basically confirm a rate cut in September;
If it's far below expectations, it could raise expectations for a stronger rate cut, but the market would have to bear some concerns about a recession with a small impact;
If it's far above expectations, it would naturally be the worst for the market, and the path for rate cuts would have to change.
See original
Today's market fluctuations are as stagnant as dead water, and altcoins continue to decline without any vitality. Tonight, there are many influencing factors in the news, including the non-farm payroll data, GDP data, Federal Reserve decision, Robinhood earnings report, and so many heavyweight messages all piled together. The market is definitely cautious and won't dare to move recklessly; any news that comes out could cause the market to surge or plummet in an instant. There's not much good to operate on right now, so it might be better to take a break and wait for the news to settle before deciding what to do. #非农
See original
Tomorrow's volatility is high, and I know I can't resist opening a position, so I might as well lock myself up and calm down✌#白宫首届加密货币峰会 #非农
See original
This week's key macro events and analysis of the cryptocurrency market forecasts:
The core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market this week revolves around the interaction between U.S. economic data and policy dynamics. According to Coinank data, Friday's employment and unemployment rate data will become a key guide for monetary policy expectations: if the data is weak (such as job growth below expectations or an increase in the unemployment rate), it may strengthen market bets on four interest rate cuts within the year, thereby boosting risk assets; conversely, if the data is strong, it will intensify concerns about the duration of high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. Currently, BTC implied volatility has dropped to a low of 45%, indicating a lack of consensus among investors on short-term direction, but this also lays the groundwork for a rebound in volatility after the data is released.
The impact of Trump's policies on the market remains persistent. Previously, his tariff policies led to significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency assets (with a drop significantly greater than traditional assets), while recent easing of rhetoric has triggered a reversal in the market. This policy uncertainty enhances the correlation between cryptocurrency assets and traditional risk assets, especially against the backdrop of a weak U.S. stock market without signs of recession, where funds may accelerate rotation between the stock-bond market and the cryptocurrency market.
The specific impact path on the cryptocurrency market may exhibit bidirectional volatility characteristics: on the one hand, the interest rate cut expectations brought about by weak economic data may push BTC to test the psychological barrier of $100,000; on the other hand, the resilience of the job market may continue the current oscillation pattern. In the medium term, caution is needed regarding potential black swan events in policy (such as new tariff measures) and repeated adjustments in liquidity expectations. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in hedging demand in the options market and the sustainability of ETF capital inflows, as these two indicators will reflect institutional capital's assessment of systemic risk.
The core contradiction in the cryptocurrency market this week revolves around the interaction between U.S. economic data and policy dynamics. According to Coinank data, Friday's employment and unemployment rate data will become a key guide for monetary policy expectations: if the data is weak (such as job growth below expectations or an increase in the unemployment rate), it may strengthen market bets on four interest rate cuts within the year, thereby boosting risk assets; conversely, if the data is strong, it will intensify concerns about the duration of high interest rates, suppressing market sentiment. Currently, BTC implied volatility has dropped to a low of 45%, indicating a lack of consensus among investors on short-term direction, but this also lays the groundwork for a rebound in volatility after the data is released.
The impact of Trump's policies on the market remains persistent. Previously, his tariff policies led to significant fluctuations in cryptocurrency assets (with a drop significantly greater than traditional assets), while recent easing of rhetoric has triggered a reversal in the market. This policy uncertainty enhances the correlation between cryptocurrency assets and traditional risk assets, especially against the backdrop of a weak U.S. stock market without signs of recession, where funds may accelerate rotation between the stock-bond market and the cryptocurrency market.
The specific impact path on the cryptocurrency market may exhibit bidirectional volatility characteristics: on the one hand, the interest rate cut expectations brought about by weak economic data may push BTC to test the psychological barrier of $100,000; on the other hand, the resilience of the job market may continue the current oscillation pattern. In the medium term, caution is needed regarding potential black swan events in policy (such as new tariff measures) and repeated adjustments in liquidity expectations. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in hedging demand in the options market and the sustainability of ETF capital inflows, as these two indicators will reflect institutional capital's assessment of systemic risk.
See original
The crypto world trembles! ETH tonight will either explode or face a bloodbath!
ETH's life-and-death game tonight! As soon as the U.S. non-farm data is released, will it surge to 3800 or plummet to 3500? The captain will help you layout in advance!
Brothers, something big is going to happen with ETH tonight! The captain is watching the market, my hands are a bit shaky—ETH is currently dropping from the upper Bollinger Band towards the middle band, and MACD is also starting to shrink, technically it’s clearly waiting for a signal: tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. non-farm data! If this data blows up, ETH will either skyrocket or plummet, we must be prepared in advance!
Technical aspect:
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the price is falling from the upper band towards the middle band, indicating that the bulls are temporarily out of action, but the middle band is the critical line! If it holds, it can still rise; if it breaks, it’s over.
Brothers, something big is going to happen with ETH tonight! The captain is watching the market, my hands are a bit shaky—ETH is currently dropping from the upper Bollinger Band towards the middle band, and MACD is also starting to shrink, technically it’s clearly waiting for a signal: tonight at 8:30 PM, the U.S. non-farm data! If this data blows up, ETH will either skyrocket or plummet, we must be prepared in advance!
Technical aspect:
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, the price is falling from the upper band towards the middle band, indicating that the bulls are temporarily out of action, but the middle band is the critical line! If it holds, it can still rise; if it breaks, it’s over.
See original
Uncle Nan's strategy is just this 👍
If the second pancake is as dead as a doornail, then let's go for counterfeits. This round of market will be fully consumed, enjoy it!
However, tonight's data should bring some changes. I am already prepared with a countermeasure. Do you want to hear it?
#美联储降息预期 #非农 $ENA $MYX $WLD
If the second pancake is as dead as a doornail, then let's go for counterfeits. This round of market will be fully consumed, enjoy it!
However, tonight's data should bring some changes. I am already prepared with a countermeasure. Do you want to hear it?
#美联储降息预期 #非农 $ENA $MYX $WLD
See original
Currently, the long-short game is very serious at #美股 . After a reduction of 911,000 people at #非农 , there are significant divergences in the market.
Is it a recession trade or a bullish interest rate cut? The entire market is making a choice. Currently, the recession trade is slightly dominant, and actually, I can give everyone a simple method to judge.
When Chinese concept stocks rise and US tech stocks fall, it indicates a recession trade (the most intuitive hedging of east rising and west falling). At the end of September, I bought Alibaba at a cost of 120 on mystonk, which is both a hedge against the recession trade and a bet on AI. Secondly, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has not changed.
Is it a recession trade or a bullish interest rate cut? The entire market is making a choice. Currently, the recession trade is slightly dominant, and actually, I can give everyone a simple method to judge.
When Chinese concept stocks rise and US tech stocks fall, it indicates a recession trade (the most intuitive hedging of east rising and west falling). At the end of September, I bought Alibaba at a cost of 120 on mystonk, which is both a hedge against the recession trade and a bet on AI. Secondly, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has not changed.
See original
The non-farm payroll report is coming tonight, and it’s another market movement of at least 3000 points. Not sure how to approach it?
If you have your eyes on tonight’s market movement, the range is big enough, and if you catch it, it could significantly boost your account!
For those with over 1000 USDT, if you want to take this opportunity to make up for previous losses, you can team up with the timing.
But let's be clear: you need to follow the rhythm accurately, and when the order comes down, it should be as decisive as flipping a switch. Hesitating for half a second could be detrimental, so you must have execution power.
Tonight, the timing will guide everyone to seize the opportunity, free of charge. But spots are limited, so those who are quick should get on board first. If you miss this wave tonight, you'll have to wait a while!
$BTC $ETH #美国加征关税 #非农 #加密市场回调
If you have your eyes on tonight’s market movement, the range is big enough, and if you catch it, it could significantly boost your account!
For those with over 1000 USDT, if you want to take this opportunity to make up for previous losses, you can team up with the timing.
But let's be clear: you need to follow the rhythm accurately, and when the order comes down, it should be as decisive as flipping a switch. Hesitating for half a second could be detrimental, so you must have execution power.
Tonight, the timing will guide everyone to seize the opportunity, free of charge. But spots are limited, so those who are quick should get on board first. If you miss this wave tonight, you'll have to wait a while!
$BTC $ETH #美国加征关税 #非农 #加密市场回调
Login to explore more contents