老李迫击炮
金融科班出身，持证券/期货/基金投资分析证书，技术图表流派，善于宏观分析，精研趋势与周期，擅长套利交易和预判行情高低点。07年涉猎全球股市、商品期货等传统金融行业，16年进入加密市场，曾受邀参加华尔街大师罗杰斯经济论坛。
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【February 3rd Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Morgan Stanley: Under the leadership of Kevin Walsh, #Fed may intensify fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market;
2. The U.S. Senate passed a compromise plan to avoid government shutdown, the House faces a critical 'rule vote' test;
3. Bloomberg: ETF investors with #BTC have an average buying cost of about $84,100, currently facing a floating loss of about 8% to 9%;
4. #TRUMP : I am a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and one of the most vocal advocates for the crypto industry.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that Kevin Walsh, the nominee to replace Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May, may reshape the communication framework of monetary policy. This official, who served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, advocates for allowing the market to independently assess economic trends. His inclination to 'reduce the balance sheet' may push up long-term Treasury yields, leading to a steepening of the yield curve. More concerning is that the Federal Reserve under Walsh may significantly reduce transparency—reducing media interactions before FOMC meetings and even canceling forward guidance tools like the dot plot. This shift in communication style may amplify fluctuations in the Treasury market.
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a 'silent' adjustment. The average holding cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors is about $84,100, while the current price has dipped to around $78,500, indicating that this portion of institutional funds is facing an 8%-9% floating loss. A deeper issue is the 'collective absence' of buying power: since mid-January, ETFs have experienced large net outflows for two consecutive weeks, selling over 27,000 Bitcoins, showing that institutions have not bought back after the cost line was breached. Unlike the panic selling during the sharp decline in October 2024, the characteristic of this round of decline is the withdrawal of liquidity and market indifference—the once optimistic regulatory expectations and retail enthusiasm that pushed the price to $125,000 have faded. If funds continue to exit, the 200-week moving average near $57,000 will become a critical defense line, which has historically served as an opportunity for long-term funds to re-enter. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has recently decoupled from traditional favorable factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, and the weakening appeal of macro narratives has led to a loss of direction. A short-term rebound without incremental funds is more likely to be a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.
1. Morgan Stanley: Under the leadership of Kevin Walsh, #Fed may intensify fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market;
2. The U.S. Senate passed a compromise plan to avoid government shutdown, the House faces a critical 'rule vote' test;
3. Bloomberg: ETF investors with #BTC have an average buying cost of about $84,100, currently facing a floating loss of about 8% to 9%;
4. #TRUMP : I am a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and one of the most vocal advocates for the crypto industry.
Morgan Stanley pointed out that Kevin Walsh, the nominee to replace Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May, may reshape the communication framework of monetary policy. This official, who served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, advocates for allowing the market to independently assess economic trends. His inclination to 'reduce the balance sheet' may push up long-term Treasury yields, leading to a steepening of the yield curve. More concerning is that the Federal Reserve under Walsh may significantly reduce transparency—reducing media interactions before FOMC meetings and even canceling forward guidance tools like the dot plot. This shift in communication style may amplify fluctuations in the Treasury market.
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a 'silent' adjustment. The average holding cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors is about $84,100, while the current price has dipped to around $78,500, indicating that this portion of institutional funds is facing an 8%-9% floating loss. A deeper issue is the 'collective absence' of buying power: since mid-January, ETFs have experienced large net outflows for two consecutive weeks, selling over 27,000 Bitcoins, showing that institutions have not bought back after the cost line was breached. Unlike the panic selling during the sharp decline in October 2024, the characteristic of this round of decline is the withdrawal of liquidity and market indifference—the once optimistic regulatory expectations and retail enthusiasm that pushed the price to $125,000 have faded. If funds continue to exit, the 200-week moving average near $57,000 will become a critical defense line, which has historically served as an opportunity for long-term funds to re-enter. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has recently decoupled from traditional favorable factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, and the weakening appeal of macro narratives has led to a loss of direction. A short-term rebound without incremental funds is more likely to be a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.
【February 2nd Cryptocurrency Market News and Data Analysis】
1. This week's macro outlook: Non-farm data is coming, and the trend of #GOLD may affect the flow of funds;
2. Antminer #S19 and other lower series miners have reached the shutdown coin price, while the Antminer S21 series is close to the shutdown coin price range of approximately $69,000 to $74,000;
3. Overview of this week's unlocking data: #HYPE , BERA, XDC, etc. will welcome a one-time large token unlocking;
4. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March.
On Monday, market sentiment remained tense, with the US dollar performing strongly, while Asian and US stock futures generally fell. Commodities suffered a significant decline, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply, and crude oil also saw a notable decrease. Factors causing the global market downturn include geopolitical influences and last Friday's surge in the US dollar due to Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman, which recorded the largest increase in several months.
#BTC price has fallen back to approximately $74,600, below the average holding cost line of large institutions' strategies. According to mining pool data, under the current electricity price, the mainstream mining machine models in the market have reached or are approaching their shutdown price range. This represents double pressure for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin: on one hand, the overall market's risk-averse sentiment has weakened the attractiveness of risk assets; on the other hand, if the coin price continues to be below the operating costs of major mining machines, it may lead to some miners shutting down, thereby affecting network computing power and potentially triggering stronger sell-off expectations, exacerbating market volatility.
1. This week's macro outlook: Non-farm data is coming, and the trend of #GOLD may affect the flow of funds;
2. Antminer #S19 and other lower series miners have reached the shutdown coin price, while the Antminer S21 series is close to the shutdown coin price range of approximately $69,000 to $74,000;
3. Overview of this week's unlocking data: #HYPE , BERA, XDC, etc. will welcome a one-time large token unlocking;
4. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March.
On Monday, market sentiment remained tense, with the US dollar performing strongly, while Asian and US stock futures generally fell. Commodities suffered a significant decline, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply, and crude oil also saw a notable decrease. Factors causing the global market downturn include geopolitical influences and last Friday's surge in the US dollar due to Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman, which recorded the largest increase in several months.
#BTC price has fallen back to approximately $74,600, below the average holding cost line of large institutions' strategies. According to mining pool data, under the current electricity price, the mainstream mining machine models in the market have reached or are approaching their shutdown price range. This represents double pressure for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin: on one hand, the overall market's risk-averse sentiment has weakened the attractiveness of risk assets; on the other hand, if the coin price continues to be below the operating costs of major mining machines, it may lead to some miners shutting down, thereby affecting network computing power and potentially triggering stronger sell-off expectations, exacerbating market volatility.
【January 30th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The geopolitical war situation is heating up, with the U.S. military sending additional warships to the Middle East. Global assets such as U.S. stocks, #GOLD , precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are declining;
2. #TRUMP Trump states that the Federal Reserve chair candidate has been shortlisted twice, and Waller's nomination is now almost certain;
3. #crypto The liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours has risen to 1.681 billion USD, with long positions liquidating at 1.574 billion USD;
4. A surge of funds into Asian gold ETFs raises alarms, as the market worries that gold prices are nearing a short-term peak.
Latest news indicates that the U.S. Navy has deployed additional destroyers to the Middle East, further escalating tensions in the region. As a result, major global risk assets have generally faced sell-offs, with U.S. stock indices and traditional assets like precious metals experiencing significant corrections. The cryptocurrency market has also not been spared, with #BTC Bitcoin's price quickly dropping from around $88,000 to $81,000, while the total liquidation amount across the network has sharply increased, particularly affecting long positions.
This market response indicates that in the face of sudden geopolitical risks, cryptocurrencies are still seen as high-risk assets, with their prices showing a high positive correlation with traditional risk assets like U.S. stocks. Severe price fluctuations have triggered mass forced liquidations of high-leverage long positions, creating a typical negative feedback loop of "decline - liquidation - further decline." For Bitcoin, its price movements in the short term will continue to be constrained by global macro risk sentiment, with volatility likely remaining high. In the long term, if geopolitical tensions become normalized, it may prompt some funds to reassess their hedging properties as alternative assets, but this process will be accompanied by severe market pain.
1. The geopolitical war situation is heating up, with the U.S. military sending additional warships to the Middle East. Global assets such as U.S. stocks, #GOLD , precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are declining;
2. #TRUMP Trump states that the Federal Reserve chair candidate has been shortlisted twice, and Waller's nomination is now almost certain;
3. #crypto The liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours has risen to 1.681 billion USD, with long positions liquidating at 1.574 billion USD;
4. A surge of funds into Asian gold ETFs raises alarms, as the market worries that gold prices are nearing a short-term peak.
Latest news indicates that the U.S. Navy has deployed additional destroyers to the Middle East, further escalating tensions in the region. As a result, major global risk assets have generally faced sell-offs, with U.S. stock indices and traditional assets like precious metals experiencing significant corrections. The cryptocurrency market has also not been spared, with #BTC Bitcoin's price quickly dropping from around $88,000 to $81,000, while the total liquidation amount across the network has sharply increased, particularly affecting long positions.
This market response indicates that in the face of sudden geopolitical risks, cryptocurrencies are still seen as high-risk assets, with their prices showing a high positive correlation with traditional risk assets like U.S. stocks. Severe price fluctuations have triggered mass forced liquidations of high-leverage long positions, creating a typical negative feedback loop of "decline - liquidation - further decline." For Bitcoin, its price movements in the short term will continue to be constrained by global macro risk sentiment, with volatility likely remaining high. In the long term, if geopolitical tensions become normalized, it may prompt some funds to reassess their hedging properties as alternative assets, but this process will be accompanied by severe market pain.
【January 29 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、#FOMC 1 January resolution finalized: the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged, and if tariff inflation peaks and then falls back, policy can be relaxed;
2、"Reuters": #whitehouse will convene bank and cryptocurrency industry executives next Monday to promote the legislative process of the "CLARITY Act";
3、The US #SEC released a guide to tokenized securities, incorporating them into the federal securities legal framework;
4、#GOLD set a new historical high, Tether has made over 5 billion dollars from buying gold, steadily purchasing 1 to 2 tons per week.
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% at its first monetary policy meeting of the year, ending a three-quarter cycle of rate cuts. Chairman Powell stated after the meeting that the current inflation pressure mainly comes from tariffs, and if its impact peaks and falls back, it will create conditions for policy easing; he also emphasized that the Federal Reserve should maintain its independence and advised his successor to stay away from political distractions. After the resolution was announced, market risk aversion drove precious metals to strengthen significantly, with spot gold prices approaching historical highs of nearly 5600 dollars per ounce.
This pause in rate cuts poses short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market, especially on #BTC . Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences corrections after FOMC meetings, and this "curse" seems to be confirmed again. This is mainly due to the market's repricing of liquidity expectations: pausing rate cuts implies a delay in the easing pace, weakening some investors' short-term enthusiasm for risk assets. The strong rise in gold also diverted some safe-haven funds. As an asset highly sensitive to macro liquidity, Bitcoin prices tend to be more volatile and prone to profit-taking when interest rate policies enter a wait-and-see phase. Subsequent trends will closely depend on inflation data and more signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of restarting rate cuts.
1、#FOMC 1 January resolution finalized: the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged, and if tariff inflation peaks and then falls back, policy can be relaxed;
2、"Reuters": #whitehouse will convene bank and cryptocurrency industry executives next Monday to promote the legislative process of the "CLARITY Act";
3、The US #SEC released a guide to tokenized securities, incorporating them into the federal securities legal framework;
4、#GOLD set a new historical high, Tether has made over 5 billion dollars from buying gold, steadily purchasing 1 to 2 tons per week.
The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% at its first monetary policy meeting of the year, ending a three-quarter cycle of rate cuts. Chairman Powell stated after the meeting that the current inflation pressure mainly comes from tariffs, and if its impact peaks and falls back, it will create conditions for policy easing; he also emphasized that the Federal Reserve should maintain its independence and advised his successor to stay away from political distractions. After the resolution was announced, market risk aversion drove precious metals to strengthen significantly, with spot gold prices approaching historical highs of nearly 5600 dollars per ounce.
This pause in rate cuts poses short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market, especially on #BTC . Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences corrections after FOMC meetings, and this "curse" seems to be confirmed again. This is mainly due to the market's repricing of liquidity expectations: pausing rate cuts implies a delay in the easing pace, weakening some investors' short-term enthusiasm for risk assets. The strong rise in gold also diverted some safe-haven funds. As an asset highly sensitive to macro liquidity, Bitcoin prices tend to be more volatile and prone to profit-taking when interest rate policies enter a wait-and-see phase. Subsequent trends will closely depend on inflation data and more signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of restarting rate cuts.
【January 28th Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#dollar index #DXY hits a new low since February 2022, as the crypto market continues to rebound;
2、The market is warming up, on-chain whales show divergence: the bullish iron hands buy more as prices rise, while smart money reduces positions at highs;
3、#hype leads the altcoin rebound, rising 50% in the last two days;
4、#BTC the overall network computing power hits the largest historical decline, possibly related to extreme weather in the United States.
Recently, the global financial market has been focusing on the continuous weakening of the yen and the fluctuations in the Japanese government bond market. Some analysts believe this may prompt the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to act together by expanding the balance sheet to provide liquidity support to stabilize the relevant markets. If this scenario comes true, it means that the global fiat currency system will welcome a new injection of liquidity.
This macro background poses potential impacts on the crypto market. Traditionally, an environment of liquidity expansion is often favorable for crypto assets like Bitcoin. Currently, while mainstream coins are rebounding, there are divergences internally: some investors are waiting for clear policy signals, while others have already positioned early or taken profits. Meanwhile, market risk appetite has somewhat rebounded, with some altcoins and emerging ecological tokens performing strongly. Investors are closely watching policy trends to determine whether this will become a key macro turning point driving the crypto market into a new cycle.
1、#dollar index #DXY hits a new low since February 2022, as the crypto market continues to rebound;
2、The market is warming up, on-chain whales show divergence: the bullish iron hands buy more as prices rise, while smart money reduces positions at highs;
3、#hype leads the altcoin rebound, rising 50% in the last two days;
4、#BTC the overall network computing power hits the largest historical decline, possibly related to extreme weather in the United States.
Recently, the global financial market has been focusing on the continuous weakening of the yen and the fluctuations in the Japanese government bond market. Some analysts believe this may prompt the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to act together by expanding the balance sheet to provide liquidity support to stabilize the relevant markets. If this scenario comes true, it means that the global fiat currency system will welcome a new injection of liquidity.
This macro background poses potential impacts on the crypto market. Traditionally, an environment of liquidity expansion is often favorable for crypto assets like Bitcoin. Currently, while mainstream coins are rebounding, there are divergences internally: some investors are waiting for clear policy signals, while others have already positioned early or taken profits. Meanwhile, market risk appetite has somewhat rebounded, with some altcoins and emerging ecological tokens performing strongly. Investors are closely watching policy trends to determine whether this will become a key macro turning point driving the crypto market into a new cycle.
【January 27th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Opinion: The US dollar is weakening, and the Federal Reserve's easing should benefit cryptocurrencies, but deleveraging and the continued strength of precious metals suppress the performance of #BTC and #ETH ;
2. #Vitalik : The scalability layers of blockchain can be summarized as computation, data, and state, where computation and data can replace state;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show a slight easing of market bearish sentiment compared to yesterday;
4. Analysis: #GOLD continues to rise, and stock market valuations are relatively high, which may drive a rebalancing of funds into the cryptocurrency market.
The US dollar has weakened this week, and the yen exchange rate has surged to a two-month high. The market speculates that US and Japanese authorities may act together to support the yen, and this expectation has warmed after remarks from Japanese officials. Meanwhile, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and potential personnel changes in the US, investors are choosing to reduce dollar exposure, which is also dragging down concerns about a possible government shutdown. The dollar to yen exchange rate has seen significant declines over the past two days, marking the largest drop in nearly a year. Market operations indicate that the New York Fed has asked major traders about exchange rates, which is often seen as a preparatory step for official intervention. Analysts point out that if the willingness of both the US and Japan is clear, the intensity of intervention will be stronger, but its effects are often short-lived under fundamental pressure.
Research interpretation suggests that the weakening of the dollar and potential easing expectations should create a macro favorable environment for cryptocurrencies. However, the current cryptocurrency market has already completed deleveraging within the industry, and the previously strong leverage-boosting effect has not emerged. In the short term, market funds show a clear “risk aversion” or “FOMO” flow, favoring the continuously rising gold and silver, which has diverted funds that might have entered the cryptocurrency field. However, historical cycles show that after a strong phase of precious metals, a rotation of funds often occurs, and core crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to subsequently capture market attention. The price of Bitcoin has now risen close to $89,000; although the overall market sentiment has slightly eased, a bearish consensus on altcoins still widely exists.
1. Opinion: The US dollar is weakening, and the Federal Reserve's easing should benefit cryptocurrencies, but deleveraging and the continued strength of precious metals suppress the performance of #BTC and #ETH ;
2. #Vitalik : The scalability layers of blockchain can be summarized as computation, data, and state, where computation and data can replace state;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show a slight easing of market bearish sentiment compared to yesterday;
4. Analysis: #GOLD continues to rise, and stock market valuations are relatively high, which may drive a rebalancing of funds into the cryptocurrency market.
The US dollar has weakened this week, and the yen exchange rate has surged to a two-month high. The market speculates that US and Japanese authorities may act together to support the yen, and this expectation has warmed after remarks from Japanese officials. Meanwhile, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and potential personnel changes in the US, investors are choosing to reduce dollar exposure, which is also dragging down concerns about a possible government shutdown. The dollar to yen exchange rate has seen significant declines over the past two days, marking the largest drop in nearly a year. Market operations indicate that the New York Fed has asked major traders about exchange rates, which is often seen as a preparatory step for official intervention. Analysts point out that if the willingness of both the US and Japan is clear, the intensity of intervention will be stronger, but its effects are often short-lived under fundamental pressure.
Research interpretation suggests that the weakening of the dollar and potential easing expectations should create a macro favorable environment for cryptocurrencies. However, the current cryptocurrency market has already completed deleveraging within the industry, and the previously strong leverage-boosting effect has not emerged. In the short term, market funds show a clear “risk aversion” or “FOMO” flow, favoring the continuously rising gold and silver, which has diverted funds that might have entered the cryptocurrency field. However, historical cycles show that after a strong phase of precious metals, a rotation of funds often occurs, and core crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to subsequently capture market attention. The price of Bitcoin has now risen close to $89,000; although the overall market sentiment has slightly eased, a bearish consensus on altcoins still widely exists.
【January 26 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group 'Lincoln' has arrived in the Middle East, with spot price #GOLD historically breaking through $5000/ounce for the first time;
2. Spot gold opened the day with a surge of over $100, and gold-related tokens have risen simultaneously;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate that the market is fully bearish, with rates on various platforms #ETH showing negative values;
4. Important macro events and data forecasts for this week: #FOMC interest rate decision announcement, major tech stocks' earnings reports are being released one after another.
The situation in the Middle East is heating up again, as the U.S. military's 'Lincoln' aircraft carrier strike group has entered the area to conduct operations, and the Air Force is also about to hold combat readiness exercises, demonstrating military presence and rapid deployment capabilities in this key region. At the same time, market expectations for a short-term outbreak of direct conflict are not high, but the tense atmosphere is sufficient to drive traditional safe-haven asset prices soaring, with spot gold historically standing above the $5000 per ounce mark, while U.S. stock index futures have responded with declines.
This has also had a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the current risk-averse cycle, Bitcoin #BTC prices are under pressure to decline. More critically, market sentiment indicators: funding rates on major trading platforms show that, apart from Bitcoin, funding rates for Ethereum and other major altcoins have turned negative, indicating that the derivatives market is generally bearish on altcoins. This divergence suggests that, under the macro uncertainty exacerbated by geopolitical risks, internal funds in the cryptocurrency market are re-evaluating risks, and capital may be more inclined to concentrate on Bitcoin, which is viewed as a core asset, while other tokens face stronger selling pressure. Short-term trends will depend on whether the risk of conflict will substantively escalate and whether Bitcoin can consolidate its safe-haven attributes amid turmoil.
1. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group 'Lincoln' has arrived in the Middle East, with spot price #GOLD historically breaking through $5000/ounce for the first time;
2. Spot gold opened the day with a surge of over $100, and gold-related tokens have risen simultaneously;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate that the market is fully bearish, with rates on various platforms #ETH showing negative values;
4. Important macro events and data forecasts for this week: #FOMC interest rate decision announcement, major tech stocks' earnings reports are being released one after another.
The situation in the Middle East is heating up again, as the U.S. military's 'Lincoln' aircraft carrier strike group has entered the area to conduct operations, and the Air Force is also about to hold combat readiness exercises, demonstrating military presence and rapid deployment capabilities in this key region. At the same time, market expectations for a short-term outbreak of direct conflict are not high, but the tense atmosphere is sufficient to drive traditional safe-haven asset prices soaring, with spot gold historically standing above the $5000 per ounce mark, while U.S. stock index futures have responded with declines.
This has also had a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the current risk-averse cycle, Bitcoin #BTC prices are under pressure to decline. More critically, market sentiment indicators: funding rates on major trading platforms show that, apart from Bitcoin, funding rates for Ethereum and other major altcoins have turned negative, indicating that the derivatives market is generally bearish on altcoins. This divergence suggests that, under the macro uncertainty exacerbated by geopolitical risks, internal funds in the cryptocurrency market are re-evaluating risks, and capital may be more inclined to concentrate on Bitcoin, which is viewed as a core asset, while other tokens face stronger selling pressure. Short-term trends will depend on whether the risk of conflict will substantively escalate and whether Bitcoin can consolidate its safe-haven attributes amid turmoil.
【January 23rd Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The chairman of the United States #SEC : will discuss the coordination of cryptocurrency regulation with the CFTC next week, and will also be live-streamed online;
2. Analysis: Fund managers' cash holdings have reached a historic low, reflecting extreme bullish sentiment among investors;
3. #NASDAQ applied to cancel the position limits on ETF options contracts #BTC and #ETH ;
4. #Musk launched a mid-term election plan aimed at attracting more local voters for Trump.
Market sentiment and institutional levels are showing subtle changes. On one hand, the cash allocation ratio of fund managers has dropped to a historical low of 3.2%, indicating that risk appetite in traditional sectors has reached its peak, and funds may seek assets with higher returns. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is promoting rule changes aimed at removing unequal position limits for Bitcoin ETF options; if approved, this will provide institutions with more flexible hedging and investment tools, serving as an important signal of institutional acceptance.
Overall, these dynamics have a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. Extremely low volatility and historically similar compression patterns often precede significant price breakthroughs. However, on-chain data clearly shows that the market has shifted from profit-taking to loss confirmation, with overall participation languishing and liquidity scarce. This 'cold bottoming' state means that prices are extremely sensitive to any influx of funds. Positive institutional developments (such as the easing of options rules) could become key catalysts, attracting sidelined funds to enter the market, potentially ending the current consolidation pattern and initiating a new trend. The current market is at a critical juncture transitioning from stagnation to potential reversal.
1. The chairman of the United States #SEC : will discuss the coordination of cryptocurrency regulation with the CFTC next week, and will also be live-streamed online;
2. Analysis: Fund managers' cash holdings have reached a historic low, reflecting extreme bullish sentiment among investors;
3. #NASDAQ applied to cancel the position limits on ETF options contracts #BTC and #ETH ;
4. #Musk launched a mid-term election plan aimed at attracting more local voters for Trump.
Market sentiment and institutional levels are showing subtle changes. On one hand, the cash allocation ratio of fund managers has dropped to a historical low of 3.2%, indicating that risk appetite in traditional sectors has reached its peak, and funds may seek assets with higher returns. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is promoting rule changes aimed at removing unequal position limits for Bitcoin ETF options; if approved, this will provide institutions with more flexible hedging and investment tools, serving as an important signal of institutional acceptance.
Overall, these dynamics have a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. Extremely low volatility and historically similar compression patterns often precede significant price breakthroughs. However, on-chain data clearly shows that the market has shifted from profit-taking to loss confirmation, with overall participation languishing and liquidity scarce. This 'cold bottoming' state means that prices are extremely sensitive to any influx of funds. Positive institutional developments (such as the easing of options rules) could become key catalysts, attracting sidelined funds to enter the market, potentially ending the current consolidation pattern and initiating a new trend. The current market is at a critical juncture transitioning from stagnation to potential reversal.
【January 22 Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP Davos Speech Summary: Will not use force against Greenland, reaffirmed support for cryptocurrency, market rebounds;
2、#usa M2 money supply reaches a historic high;
3、X platform has 6 major updates in 10 days, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency community;
4、The latest text of the U.S. Senate Agricultural Committee's cryptocurrency market structure bill failed to reach an agreement with the Democrats.
Trump delivered his latest speech at the Davos Forum, where he downplayed geopolitical disputes and emphasized that the Greenland issue would not be resolved by force, expressing an optimistic outlook for the stock market; on the other hand, he clearly supported the development of cryptocurrencies, stressing that the U.S. needs to consolidate its position as the "global cryptocurrency capital," and revealed that Congress is advancing related market structure legislation. Additionally, he announced the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, but also expressed concerns about decision-making independence.
From the perspective of the impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially on #BTC , in terms of liquidity, M2 reaching a historic high indicates that the macro environment remains ample, traditionally benefitting risk assets including Bitcoin. On the policy level, Trump reiterated his support for the cryptocurrency industry, and the advancement of market structure legislation (albeit possibly slightly delayed) significantly enhances the long-term expectation of a clearer U.S. regulatory framework, which will help attract traditional capital. Short-term market sentiment is boosted by his reassuring remarks. However, the uncertainty regarding the new Federal Reserve chair may lead to volatility in monetary policy expectations. Overall, ample liquidity and improved regulatory prospects constitute major benefits, and it is expected to enhance market confidence in Bitcoin as a digital asset, but attention should be paid to the specific implementation pace of the bill and changes in Federal Reserve personnel.
1、#TRUMP Davos Speech Summary: Will not use force against Greenland, reaffirmed support for cryptocurrency, market rebounds;
2、#usa M2 money supply reaches a historic high;
3、X platform has 6 major updates in 10 days, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency community;
4、The latest text of the U.S. Senate Agricultural Committee's cryptocurrency market structure bill failed to reach an agreement with the Democrats.
Trump delivered his latest speech at the Davos Forum, where he downplayed geopolitical disputes and emphasized that the Greenland issue would not be resolved by force, expressing an optimistic outlook for the stock market; on the other hand, he clearly supported the development of cryptocurrencies, stressing that the U.S. needs to consolidate its position as the "global cryptocurrency capital," and revealed that Congress is advancing related market structure legislation. Additionally, he announced the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, but also expressed concerns about decision-making independence.
From the perspective of the impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially on #BTC , in terms of liquidity, M2 reaching a historic high indicates that the macro environment remains ample, traditionally benefitting risk assets including Bitcoin. On the policy level, Trump reiterated his support for the cryptocurrency industry, and the advancement of market structure legislation (albeit possibly slightly delayed) significantly enhances the long-term expectation of a clearer U.S. regulatory framework, which will help attract traditional capital. Short-term market sentiment is boosted by his reassuring remarks. However, the uncertainty regarding the new Federal Reserve chair may lead to volatility in monetary policy expectations. Overall, ample liquidity and improved regulatory prospects constitute major benefits, and it is expected to enhance market confidence in Bitcoin as a digital asset, but attention should be paid to the specific implementation pace of the bill and changes in Federal Reserve personnel.
【January 21 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The market decline is influenced by abnormal fluctuations in the Japanese bond market and has nothing to do with #Greenland ;
2. #BTC relative to #GOLD 's RSI has broken below 30 in extreme overselling, occurring only 4 times in history;
3. The international situation is once again turbulent, with spot gold rising 10% in 20 days, breaking through $4800 per ounce;
4. The projected daily trading volume in the market is expected to exceed $814 million, setting a historical high, with the potential for six consecutive months of increased trading activity.
Short-term fluctuations in the global financial market have intensified, with senior officials at the U.S. Treasury pointing out that the severe turbulence in the Japanese government bond market has triggered a chain reaction, affecting the European and American bond markets, leading to an increase in bond yields in major countries worldwide. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, with the U.S. taking a hardline stance on the Greenland issue and threatening tariffs on Europe, increasing market concerns about trade conflicts. Against this backdrop, safe-haven asset gold prices have soared, historically breaking through the $4800 per ounce barrier, with remarkable gains since the beginning of the year.
This market environment has complex impacts on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's relative strength index (#RSI ) against gold falls into the overselling zone below 30, it often signals an important turning point in the market. Such situations occurred in 2015, 2018, 2022, and most recently in late 2025, and each time, Bitcoin achieved a strong rebound relative to gold afterward. Currently, in the context of gold soaring due to safe-haven demand while Bitcoin underperforms, this historic overselling signal has appeared again. This suggests that if historical patterns repeat, the current market panic and capital flows may be building momentum for a significant rebound in Bitcoin, and investors need to closely monitor this rebalancing process following extreme divergence.
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The market decline is influenced by abnormal fluctuations in the Japanese bond market and has nothing to do with #Greenland ;
2. #BTC relative to #GOLD 's RSI has broken below 30 in extreme overselling, occurring only 4 times in history;
3. The international situation is once again turbulent, with spot gold rising 10% in 20 days, breaking through $4800 per ounce;
4. The projected daily trading volume in the market is expected to exceed $814 million, setting a historical high, with the potential for six consecutive months of increased trading activity.
Short-term fluctuations in the global financial market have intensified, with senior officials at the U.S. Treasury pointing out that the severe turbulence in the Japanese government bond market has triggered a chain reaction, affecting the European and American bond markets, leading to an increase in bond yields in major countries worldwide. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, with the U.S. taking a hardline stance on the Greenland issue and threatening tariffs on Europe, increasing market concerns about trade conflicts. Against this backdrop, safe-haven asset gold prices have soared, historically breaking through the $4800 per ounce barrier, with remarkable gains since the beginning of the year.
This market environment has complex impacts on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's relative strength index (#RSI ) against gold falls into the overselling zone below 30, it often signals an important turning point in the market. Such situations occurred in 2015, 2018, 2022, and most recently in late 2025, and each time, Bitcoin achieved a strong rebound relative to gold afterward. Currently, in the context of gold soaring due to safe-haven demand while Bitcoin underperforms, this historic overselling signal has appeared again. This suggests that if historical patterns repeat, the current market panic and capital flows may be building momentum for a significant rebound in Bitcoin, and investors need to closely monitor this rebalancing process following extreme divergence.
【January 20th Daily Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#Fed 1 The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 95%;
2、The Federal Reserve #Powell will attend the hearing of Director Cook at the Supreme Court;
3、Spot #Silver surged 5% within the day, setting a new historical high;
4、Glassnode: #BTC short-term investors have been in an unrealized loss state since November 25.
According to the latest data, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will remain steady this month, with a very low possibility of interest rate cuts, and the cumulative probability of rate cuts until March is also relatively limited. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that since November last year, short-term Bitcoin holders have generally been in an unrealized loss state, with an average loss of about 22%. To turn this group of investors overall into profit, the Bitcoin price may need to rise above $98,000.
From a market impact perspective, maintaining high short-term interest rates means that the dollar liquidity environment remains tight, which may continue to suppress the valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. However, on-chain indicators also reveal that new investors are generally in a state of unrealized losses, which has similarities with the characteristics of historical market cyclical bottoms. Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, short-term holders often cleared speculative bubbles after experiencing large-scale losses and selling at a loss, which paved the way for subsequent bull markets. Therefore, the current state of sustained losses for new investors may indicate that the market is undergoing a painful washout and bottoming process, accumulating a foundation for healthier upward trends in the future.
1、#Fed 1 The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 95%;
2、The Federal Reserve #Powell will attend the hearing of Director Cook at the Supreme Court;
3、Spot #Silver surged 5% within the day, setting a new historical high;
4、Glassnode: #BTC short-term investors have been in an unrealized loss state since November 25.
According to the latest data, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will remain steady this month, with a very low possibility of interest rate cuts, and the cumulative probability of rate cuts until March is also relatively limited. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that since November last year, short-term Bitcoin holders have generally been in an unrealized loss state, with an average loss of about 22%. To turn this group of investors overall into profit, the Bitcoin price may need to rise above $98,000.
From a market impact perspective, maintaining high short-term interest rates means that the dollar liquidity environment remains tight, which may continue to suppress the valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. However, on-chain indicators also reveal that new investors are generally in a state of unrealized losses, which has similarities with the characteristics of historical market cyclical bottoms. Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, short-term holders often cleared speculative bubbles after experiencing large-scale losses and selling at a loss, which paved the way for subsequent bull markets. Therefore, the current state of sustained losses for new investors may indicate that the market is undergoing a painful washout and bottoming process, accumulating a foundation for healthier upward trends in the future.
【January 19 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Important events and data forecasts this week: United States #PCE , Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting;
2. #Fed candidate changes: Hassett may withdraw, Walsh becomes the biggest favorite;
3. Analysis: The market is worried about a trade war between the US and Europe, with #BTC experiencing a drop of over 3% in a short period;
4. Altcoins generally fell, with SENT dropping over 33% in 24 hours.
Today, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin's price briefly dropping below $92,000. This widespread decline was accompanied by the liquidation of high long leverage positions, making market sentiment particularly fragile. The direct catalyst was the sudden escalation of trade tensions between the US and Europe, with both sides proposing tariff plans involving substantial goods, raising investor concerns about the deterioration of the macro environment.
Research analysis indicates that this situation has exposed the structural weaknesses within the cryptocurrency market itself. Compared to other traditional risk assets that performed steadily or even rose during trade disputes, the decline in cryptocurrencies is particularly pronounced. This suggests that, at the current stage, cryptocurrency assets are still viewed by some investors as options to prioritize reducing holdings in the risk hierarchy, rather than as safe-haven choices. For Bitcoin, this relatively weak performance means its price is more prone to fluctuations when facing external macro shocks and may face pressure from capital flowing into other more resilient asset classes. The market needs stronger endogenous motivation or broader acceptance to effectively withstand the impacts of such systemic concerns.
1. Important events and data forecasts this week: United States #PCE , Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting;
2. #Fed candidate changes: Hassett may withdraw, Walsh becomes the biggest favorite;
3. Analysis: The market is worried about a trade war between the US and Europe, with #BTC experiencing a drop of over 3% in a short period;
4. Altcoins generally fell, with SENT dropping over 33% in 24 hours.
Today, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin's price briefly dropping below $92,000. This widespread decline was accompanied by the liquidation of high long leverage positions, making market sentiment particularly fragile. The direct catalyst was the sudden escalation of trade tensions between the US and Europe, with both sides proposing tariff plans involving substantial goods, raising investor concerns about the deterioration of the macro environment.
Research analysis indicates that this situation has exposed the structural weaknesses within the cryptocurrency market itself. Compared to other traditional risk assets that performed steadily or even rose during trade disputes, the decline in cryptocurrencies is particularly pronounced. This suggests that, at the current stage, cryptocurrency assets are still viewed by some investors as options to prioritize reducing holdings in the risk hierarchy, rather than as safe-haven choices. For Bitcoin, this relatively weak performance means its price is more prone to fluctuations when facing external macro shocks and may face pressure from capital flowing into other more resilient asset classes. The market needs stronger endogenous motivation or broader acceptance to effectively withstand the impacts of such systemic concerns.
【January 16 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Analysis: This year's inflation may far exceed expectations, #Fed interest rate cut outlook changes;
2. The White House disclosed that #TRUMP holds bonds from several companies affected by its policies;
3. Economist: #Japan The central bank has the highest probability of raising interest rates in July, and the depreciation of the yen may force early action;
4. #BSC The market value of on-chain Meme coins has seen a rebound today, with low market cap Meme coins themed around the Year of the Horse leading the gains.
At the beginning of this year, concerns about inflation possibly resurfacing gradually emerged. Rising metal prices, increased energy and infrastructure spending driven by the development of artificial intelligence, and the policy uncertainty caused by President Trump's potential replacement of the Federal Reserve chairman in May may all lead to inflation levels exceeding earlier expectations. Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, if price pressures persist, the market's previously expected two interest rate cuts within the year may be at risk of not materializing, and there is even a possibility of no rate cuts. Although the stock and bond markets have not fully reflected this risk, some institutions have already adopted a defensive posture. Some investors point out that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 4.3%, it may indicate that inflation and the financial markets will face greater pressure. The newly appointed president of the Philadelphia Fed, as an FOMC voting member, recently expressed support for maintaining the current interest rates, emphasizing the need to rely on data to remain patient, and to pay attention to the potential risk of unexpected cooling in the labor market.
This economic signal has a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. If inflation concerns delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, maintaining a higher interest rate level may temporarily suppress market liquidity and increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, thereby bringing price correction pressure. However, from a medium-term perspective, if the economy shows a "soft but not excessively soft" "golden setting," where inflation gently recedes without a collapse in the labor market, this may create future space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Once liquidity expectations improve, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, may attract capital back. Paulson's dovish stance, which emphasizes the labor market, suggests that while the Federal Reserve works to curb inflation, it may also avoid excessive tightening. If this balance is achieved properly, it could slow down the market's extreme volatility and provide a certain buffer for the cryptocurrency market.
1. Analysis: This year's inflation may far exceed expectations, #Fed interest rate cut outlook changes;
2. The White House disclosed that #TRUMP holds bonds from several companies affected by its policies;
3. Economist: #Japan The central bank has the highest probability of raising interest rates in July, and the depreciation of the yen may force early action;
4. #BSC The market value of on-chain Meme coins has seen a rebound today, with low market cap Meme coins themed around the Year of the Horse leading the gains.
At the beginning of this year, concerns about inflation possibly resurfacing gradually emerged. Rising metal prices, increased energy and infrastructure spending driven by the development of artificial intelligence, and the policy uncertainty caused by President Trump's potential replacement of the Federal Reserve chairman in May may all lead to inflation levels exceeding earlier expectations. Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, if price pressures persist, the market's previously expected two interest rate cuts within the year may be at risk of not materializing, and there is even a possibility of no rate cuts. Although the stock and bond markets have not fully reflected this risk, some institutions have already adopted a defensive posture. Some investors point out that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 4.3%, it may indicate that inflation and the financial markets will face greater pressure. The newly appointed president of the Philadelphia Fed, as an FOMC voting member, recently expressed support for maintaining the current interest rates, emphasizing the need to rely on data to remain patient, and to pay attention to the potential risk of unexpected cooling in the labor market.
This economic signal has a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. If inflation concerns delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, maintaining a higher interest rate level may temporarily suppress market liquidity and increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, thereby bringing price correction pressure. However, from a medium-term perspective, if the economy shows a "soft but not excessively soft" "golden setting," where inflation gently recedes without a collapse in the labor market, this may create future space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Once liquidity expectations improve, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, may attract capital back. Paulson's dovish stance, which emphasizes the labor market, suggests that while the Federal Reserve works to curb inflation, it may also avoid excessive tightening. If this balance is achieved properly, it could slow down the market's extreme volatility and provide a certain buffer for the cryptocurrency market.
【January 15, Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、Trump: There are currently no plans to fire Powell, and it's too early to delve into #Fed ;
2、Arthur Hayes' new article: It's expected that #TRUMP will flood the market with liquidity to stimulate the economy ahead of the mid-term elections, and Bitcoin will strongly rebound as U.S. dollar liquidity recovers;
3、Santiment: The current situation of whales buying and retail investors selling represents an ideal positioning pattern for the start of a bull market;
4、The current funding rates on major CEXs and #DEX indicate the market is attempting to 'top out and short' again.
#BTC price rose nearly to the $98,000 level, and the funding rates between major CEXs and DEXs have turned negative, indicating professional capital is attempting a 'topping out and shorting' strategy. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that since January 10, 'whale' and 'shark' addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 32,693 BTC, a 0.24% rise, while 'shrimp' addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC have cumulatively sold 149 BTC, with holdings decreasing by 0.30%.
This phenomenon indicates the market is entering a phase dominated by 'smart money.' Retail investors, lacking confidence in the initial market movement, are choosing to观望 or exit, leading to negative funding rates in altcoins. At the same time, continuous inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and accumulation by smart money are injecting new momentum into the market. If this positioning is sustained, BTC may break through the $100,000 level in the short term, leading the next wave of bull market.
1、Trump: There are currently no plans to fire Powell, and it's too early to delve into #Fed ;
2、Arthur Hayes' new article: It's expected that #TRUMP will flood the market with liquidity to stimulate the economy ahead of the mid-term elections, and Bitcoin will strongly rebound as U.S. dollar liquidity recovers;
3、Santiment: The current situation of whales buying and retail investors selling represents an ideal positioning pattern for the start of a bull market;
4、The current funding rates on major CEXs and #DEX indicate the market is attempting to 'top out and short' again.
#BTC price rose nearly to the $98,000 level, and the funding rates between major CEXs and DEXs have turned negative, indicating professional capital is attempting a 'topping out and shorting' strategy. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that since January 10, 'whale' and 'shark' addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 32,693 BTC, a 0.24% rise, while 'shrimp' addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC have cumulatively sold 149 BTC, with holdings decreasing by 0.30%.
This phenomenon indicates the market is entering a phase dominated by 'smart money.' Retail investors, lacking confidence in the initial market movement, are choosing to观望 or exit, leading to negative funding rates in altcoins. At the same time, continuous inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and accumulation by smart money are injecting new momentum into the market. If this positioning is sustained, BTC may break through the $100,000 level in the short term, leading the next wave of bull market.
【January 14 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、Over 130 amendments to the CLARITY Act have been submitted by U.S. senators;
2、U.S. stock indices closed lower, while crypto stocks rebounded and rose broadly against the market trend alongside Bitcoin;
3、Crypto market funding rates have largely returned to neutral during the rebound;
4、U.S. Senator Warren called for a pause in the application process for bank license #WLFI until the Trump family divests its related holdings.
All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the #SP500 index declining slightly less than the Dow, and the Nasdaq showing relatively stronger performance. In stark contrast, crypto-related stocks saw broad gains driven by Bitcoin's initial rebound. Although funding rates for major cryptocurrencies later showed signs of returning to neutral, rates for #BTC , #hype , BCH, and ZEC remained low, indicating persistent short-term bearish sentiment in the market.
From a data perspective, BTC's price continued to rise after funding rates returned to neutral, suggesting that buying pressure remains active. The market may be digesting previous negative sentiment and seeking new support levels. In such scenarios, BTC often finds itself in a divergence zone between funding rates and price, leading to potentially higher short-term volatility but also creating space for funding rates to turn positive. For BTC, if funding rates can break above neutral and sustain an upward trend, it could validate the durability of this rebound; conversely, if rates remain low, BTC may enter a longer period of consolidation or decline after completing its short-term rebound.
1、Over 130 amendments to the CLARITY Act have been submitted by U.S. senators;
2、U.S. stock indices closed lower, while crypto stocks rebounded and rose broadly against the market trend alongside Bitcoin;
3、Crypto market funding rates have largely returned to neutral during the rebound;
4、U.S. Senator Warren called for a pause in the application process for bank license #WLFI until the Trump family divests its related holdings.
All three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the #SP500 index declining slightly less than the Dow, and the Nasdaq showing relatively stronger performance. In stark contrast, crypto-related stocks saw broad gains driven by Bitcoin's initial rebound. Although funding rates for major cryptocurrencies later showed signs of returning to neutral, rates for #BTC , #hype , BCH, and ZEC remained low, indicating persistent short-term bearish sentiment in the market.
From a data perspective, BTC's price continued to rise after funding rates returned to neutral, suggesting that buying pressure remains active. The market may be digesting previous negative sentiment and seeking new support levels. In such scenarios, BTC often finds itself in a divergence zone between funding rates and price, leading to potentially higher short-term volatility but also creating space for funding rates to turn positive. For BTC, if funding rates can break above neutral and sustain an upward trend, it could validate the durability of this rebound; conversely, if rates remain low, BTC may enter a longer period of consolidation or decline after completing its short-term rebound.
【January 13 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、U.S. bipartisan senators propose clarifying legal responsibilities for cryptocurrency developers;
2、U.S. stock markets closed higher across all three major indices, with the crypto sector rising broadly;
3、The Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for seven consecutive days, currently at -0.1184%;
4、Due to attention from #Musk and interaction with the founder #solana , the #MEME coin PsyopAnime surged 3600% briefly.
#BTC price briefly broke through 92,000 USD twice yesterday. The market initially panicked and bought in due to the U.S. federal prosecutor's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell, with some investors mistakenly interpreting it as a crisis of confidence in the fiat system, leading them to seek refuge in scarce Bitcoin. However, this rally lacked macro-level support. Data shows that although Bitcoin briefly attempted to break through the 92,500 USD level, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows of 1.38 billion USD over four consecutive trading days, and leveraged long demand remains weak. The basis rate in the futures market remains in a neutral-to-negative range around 5%, without the significant premium typically seen when market sentiment turns strongly bullish (usually requiring a breakout above 10%). Meanwhile, despite large funds like Strategy increasing their Bitcoin holdings by approximately 1.25 billion USD over the past month, the price has still failed to hold above key support levels.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin is facing dual pressures from capital flows and sentiment. Unlike gold and silver, which reached new all-time highs in 2026 supported by traditional safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, Bitcoin's rise lacks fundamental demand and relies solely on investors' 'bullish' sentiment. As ETF capital continues to flow out and leveraged demand remains weak, confidence in Bitcoin as a 'digital store of value' is beginning to erode. Given the worsening of both capital flows and market sentiment, the likelihood of Bitcoin reclaiming 105,000 USD or higher in the near term is relatively low, and market sentiment has shifted from blind optimism to cautious observation.
1、U.S. bipartisan senators propose clarifying legal responsibilities for cryptocurrency developers;
2、U.S. stock markets closed higher across all three major indices, with the crypto sector rising broadly;
3、The Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for seven consecutive days, currently at -0.1184%;
4、Due to attention from #Musk and interaction with the founder #solana , the #MEME coin PsyopAnime surged 3600% briefly.
#BTC price briefly broke through 92,000 USD twice yesterday. The market initially panicked and bought in due to the U.S. federal prosecutor's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell, with some investors mistakenly interpreting it as a crisis of confidence in the fiat system, leading them to seek refuge in scarce Bitcoin. However, this rally lacked macro-level support. Data shows that although Bitcoin briefly attempted to break through the 92,500 USD level, Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen net outflows of 1.38 billion USD over four consecutive trading days, and leveraged long demand remains weak. The basis rate in the futures market remains in a neutral-to-negative range around 5%, without the significant premium typically seen when market sentiment turns strongly bullish (usually requiring a breakout above 10%). Meanwhile, despite large funds like Strategy increasing their Bitcoin holdings by approximately 1.25 billion USD over the past month, the price has still failed to hold above key support levels.
From a market structure perspective, Bitcoin is facing dual pressures from capital flows and sentiment. Unlike gold and silver, which reached new all-time highs in 2026 supported by traditional safe-haven demand and inflation hedging, Bitcoin's rise lacks fundamental demand and relies solely on investors' 'bullish' sentiment. As ETF capital continues to flow out and leveraged demand remains weak, confidence in Bitcoin as a 'digital store of value' is beginning to erode. Given the worsening of both capital flows and market sentiment, the likelihood of Bitcoin reclaiming 105,000 USD or higher in the near term is relatively low, and market sentiment has shifted from blind optimism to cautious observation.
【January 12 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、#YouTube the viewing volume of cryptocurrency content has dropped to the lowest level since January 2021;
2、South Korea ends nine-year corporate cryptocurrency ban, allowing up to 5% of equity investment in the top 20 cryptocurrencies;
3、#TRUMP indicates that Powell's lawsuit is unrelated to interest rates, and he himself was not involved;
4、a16z predicts AI trends for 2026: #AI will be involved in financial and trading activities with enhanced security and take on more substantive research tasks.
Latest news shows that the U.S. is accelerating military deployments against Iran, with the Trump administration reviewing tough action plans against Iran, including multiple options such as military and economic sanctions. Meanwhile, the U.S. is exerting pressure on Cuba by cutting off its energy and financial sources, aiming to force Cuba to accept U.S.-proposed conditions. In sync with this geopolitical tension, the precious metals market has seen a significant rise, with spot silver surging 4% to $83.14 per ounce; spot gold breaking through $4,580 per ounce, setting a new high; and international gold futures rising above $4,600 per ounce for the first time. At the same time, oil prices have also climbed, with Brent crude futures reaching $64 per barrel, and WTI crude approaching $60 per barrel.
These factors combined have created complex impacts on the cryptocurrency market, particularly on #BTC . On one hand, geopolitical risks have driven up prices of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, potentially redirecting some safe-haven funds into Bitcoin, leading to a short-term rebound in Bitcoin. On the other hand, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and oil prices will also affect Bitcoin's relative strength and investor sentiment.
1、#YouTube the viewing volume of cryptocurrency content has dropped to the lowest level since January 2021;
2、South Korea ends nine-year corporate cryptocurrency ban, allowing up to 5% of equity investment in the top 20 cryptocurrencies;
3、#TRUMP indicates that Powell's lawsuit is unrelated to interest rates, and he himself was not involved;
4、a16z predicts AI trends for 2026: #AI will be involved in financial and trading activities with enhanced security and take on more substantive research tasks.
Latest news shows that the U.S. is accelerating military deployments against Iran, with the Trump administration reviewing tough action plans against Iran, including multiple options such as military and economic sanctions. Meanwhile, the U.S. is exerting pressure on Cuba by cutting off its energy and financial sources, aiming to force Cuba to accept U.S.-proposed conditions. In sync with this geopolitical tension, the precious metals market has seen a significant rise, with spot silver surging 4% to $83.14 per ounce; spot gold breaking through $4,580 per ounce, setting a new high; and international gold futures rising above $4,600 per ounce for the first time. At the same time, oil prices have also climbed, with Brent crude futures reaching $64 per barrel, and WTI crude approaching $60 per barrel.
These factors combined have created complex impacts on the cryptocurrency market, particularly on #BTC . On one hand, geopolitical risks have driven up prices of traditional safe-haven assets like gold, potentially redirecting some safe-haven funds into Bitcoin, leading to a short-term rebound in Bitcoin. On the other hand, fluctuations in the U.S. dollar index and oil prices will also affect Bitcoin's relative strength and investor sentiment.
【January 9th Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、The first non-farm data of #2026 will be released tonight at 21:30, expected at 60,000, previous value at 64,000;
2、Stablecoin trading volume in 2025 reached a record high, totaling $33 trillion, with #USDC leading the way;
3、#TRUMP claims to have decided the Federal Reserve chairperson;
4、JPMorgan: The phase of crypto de-risking may have ended, with ETF fund flows showing signs of stabilization.
In JPMorgan's latest market assessment, regarding the current sentiment toward crypto assets, the report clearly states that the previous dominant trend of 'de-risking' is rapidly fading. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows at the end of 2025, while global stock ETFs recorded a massive net inflow of $235 billion during the same period, this temporary selling pressure has reached a turning point at the beginning of 2026. Data shows that fund flows for #BTC and #ETH ETFs have bottomed out and started to recover, with perpetual contracts and CME Bitcoin futures position indicators also showing signs of recovery, indicating that market selling pressure is being gradually absorbed.
Analysts further point out that the collective liquidation peak in Q4 2025—whether by retail or institutional investors—appears to have completely ended. MSCI's index review in February 2026 decided to retain the index status of Bitcoin and crypto asset reserve companies, a move seen as an immediate 'stopgap' for market sentiment. The report denies that the recent correction was due to liquidity shortage, instead attributing the real trigger to MSCI's statement on October 10 regarding MicroStrategy's index status, which triggered a systemic withdrawal. However, it is now evident that the main force behind this withdrawal has largely dissipated.
1、The first non-farm data of #2026 will be released tonight at 21:30, expected at 60,000, previous value at 64,000;
2、Stablecoin trading volume in 2025 reached a record high, totaling $33 trillion, with #USDC leading the way;
3、#TRUMP claims to have decided the Federal Reserve chairperson;
4、JPMorgan: The phase of crypto de-risking may have ended, with ETF fund flows showing signs of stabilization.
In JPMorgan's latest market assessment, regarding the current sentiment toward crypto assets, the report clearly states that the previous dominant trend of 'de-risking' is rapidly fading. Although Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows at the end of 2025, while global stock ETFs recorded a massive net inflow of $235 billion during the same period, this temporary selling pressure has reached a turning point at the beginning of 2026. Data shows that fund flows for #BTC and #ETH ETFs have bottomed out and started to recover, with perpetual contracts and CME Bitcoin futures position indicators also showing signs of recovery, indicating that market selling pressure is being gradually absorbed.
Analysts further point out that the collective liquidation peak in Q4 2025—whether by retail or institutional investors—appears to have completely ended. MSCI's index review in February 2026 decided to retain the index status of Bitcoin and crypto asset reserve companies, a move seen as an immediate 'stopgap' for market sentiment. The report denies that the recent correction was due to liquidity shortage, instead attributing the real trigger to MSCI's statement on October 10 regarding MicroStrategy's index status, which triggered a systemic withdrawal. However, it is now evident that the main force behind this withdrawal has largely dissipated.
【January 8 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、After the release of U.S. #ADP employment data, the probability of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve has further decreased;
2、Coinbase CEO sells but never buys? Sold all 88 shares of his own company's stock, with no record of any increase in holdings;
3、Analysis: The current market rebound is driven by spot markets, but speculative positions may have been excessively accumulated in the short term;
4、Opinion: The claim of "#venezuela 600 billion USD #BTC position" lacks supporting evidence.
The latest U.S. economic data shows that ADP employment numbers increased by 41,000 in December, indicating a slow recovery in the job market. Although this figure is below expectations, it has been enough to cause a subtle shift in market sentiment toward the Federal Reserve. With the improvement in employment data, market expectations for rate cuts have become slightly more conservative. Data from #cme shows that the probability of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped from 17.7% last week to about 11.1%.
At the same time, the Bitcoin market has also experienced technical fluctuations. Data shows that Bitcoin's Net Taker Volume (25-hour moving average) has fallen to approximately -19 million USD, marking the strongest selling pressure since December 23. This indicator suggests that the market trading rhythm has shifted from buyer-dominated to seller-dominated in the short term, with significantly increased selling pressure. CryptoQuant's analysis indicates that although Bitcoin's liquidity channels have become increasingly diversified and traditional capital inflow logic is harder to grasp, institutional long-term holding of Bitcoin remains unchanged, with strategic funds still holding the majority of 673,000 Bitcoins. According to their analysis, Bitcoin may no longer experience extreme sell-offs of over 50% as seen in previous bear markets, but instead could enter a period of sideways consolidation over the coming months.
1、After the release of U.S. #ADP employment data, the probability of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve has further decreased;
2、Coinbase CEO sells but never buys? Sold all 88 shares of his own company's stock, with no record of any increase in holdings;
3、Analysis: The current market rebound is driven by spot markets, but speculative positions may have been excessively accumulated in the short term;
4、Opinion: The claim of "#venezuela 600 billion USD #BTC position" lacks supporting evidence.
The latest U.S. economic data shows that ADP employment numbers increased by 41,000 in December, indicating a slow recovery in the job market. Although this figure is below expectations, it has been enough to cause a subtle shift in market sentiment toward the Federal Reserve. With the improvement in employment data, market expectations for rate cuts have become slightly more conservative. Data from #cme shows that the probability of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped from 17.7% last week to about 11.1%.
At the same time, the Bitcoin market has also experienced technical fluctuations. Data shows that Bitcoin's Net Taker Volume (25-hour moving average) has fallen to approximately -19 million USD, marking the strongest selling pressure since December 23. This indicator suggests that the market trading rhythm has shifted from buyer-dominated to seller-dominated in the short term, with significantly increased selling pressure. CryptoQuant's analysis indicates that although Bitcoin's liquidity channels have become increasingly diversified and traditional capital inflow logic is harder to grasp, institutional long-term holding of Bitcoin remains unchanged, with strategic funds still holding the majority of 673,000 Bitcoins. According to their analysis, Bitcoin may no longer experience extreme sell-offs of over 50% as seen in previous bear markets, but instead could enter a period of sideways consolidation over the coming months.
【January 7 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、#Polymarket denied Venezuela was invaded, triggering strong public dissatisfaction;
2、#BTC premium index turned negative again, temporarily reporting -0.0277%;
3、The U.S. Senate's crypto regulatory bill reached a critical milestone, with a revision session scheduled for January 15;
4、Bitcoin, accompanied by the veteran #MEME , exited the correction phase, with the '114514' token dropping over 90% in a single day.
The U.S. Congress's crypto agenda for January 2026 shows a polarized stance. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott is pushing forward the hearing process, planning to revise and vote on the so-called 'Market Structure Bill' on January 15, aiming to break the legislative stagnation in the Senate at the start of the new year. This move reflects some Republican lawmakers' attempts to end the regulatory vacuum and reshape the legal status of cryptocurrencies. However, insiders indicate that the bill still lacks sufficient cross-party support, making its future outlook quite unclear.
Meanwhile, the market's anticipation of regulation is clashing sharply with reality. After an initial surge, Bitcoin began to correct, with prices回落 to around $90,000, losing some of the recent momentum. Even more dramatic was the meme coin market, which rapidly collapsed after a sharp rebound—its market cap once soared to $57 million for the '114514' token, which then dropped over 90% in just one day, leaving only a minimal market cap. This extreme volatility indicates that, in the absence of clear regulation and with ongoing policy risks, speculative assets face significant selling pressure. For BTC, while the potential passage of the Market Structure Bill could provide a more stable compliance framework, current legislative uncertainty and the sharp pullbacks in certain tokens are collectively weakening market sentiment.
1、#Polymarket denied Venezuela was invaded, triggering strong public dissatisfaction;
2、#BTC premium index turned negative again, temporarily reporting -0.0277%;
3、The U.S. Senate's crypto regulatory bill reached a critical milestone, with a revision session scheduled for January 15;
4、Bitcoin, accompanied by the veteran #MEME , exited the correction phase, with the '114514' token dropping over 90% in a single day.
The U.S. Congress's crypto agenda for January 2026 shows a polarized stance. Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott is pushing forward the hearing process, planning to revise and vote on the so-called 'Market Structure Bill' on January 15, aiming to break the legislative stagnation in the Senate at the start of the new year. This move reflects some Republican lawmakers' attempts to end the regulatory vacuum and reshape the legal status of cryptocurrencies. However, insiders indicate that the bill still lacks sufficient cross-party support, making its future outlook quite unclear.
Meanwhile, the market's anticipation of regulation is clashing sharply with reality. After an initial surge, Bitcoin began to correct, with prices回落 to around $90,000, losing some of the recent momentum. Even more dramatic was the meme coin market, which rapidly collapsed after a sharp rebound—its market cap once soared to $57 million for the '114514' token, which then dropped over 90% in just one day, leaving only a minimal market cap. This extreme volatility indicates that, in the absence of clear regulation and with ongoing policy risks, speculative assets face significant selling pressure. For BTC, while the potential passage of the Market Structure Bill could provide a more stable compliance framework, current legislative uncertainty and the sharp pullbacks in certain tokens are collectively weakening market sentiment.
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