老李迫击炮

【March 13 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Latest developments in the US-Iran conflict: Khamenei's son vows revenge, US Navy plans to enter the Strait of Hormuz for escort;
2. #SEC committee calls for the promotion of an innovative exemption mechanism for tokenized securities;
3. #oil crude oil prices experience a roller coaster, #TRUMP government intervenes, market focus shifts to the Strait of Hormuz;
4. Current mainstream #CEX , DEX funding rates show that market bearish sentiment has eased.

The energy market has seen severe fluctuations again, with crude oil prices nearing the $100 mark at dawn, marking the second attempt this week to break the $100 mark before falling back. Previously, the US had released strategic reserves and considered futures intervention to stabilize prices, but the CME Group warned that wartime manipulation of the derivatives market could lead to systemic risks. Iran's new leader Mujtaba made a strong statement this morning, vowing to use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip against the US and Israel, as this waterway carries one-fifth of the world's oil transport volume; although US Treasury Secretary Yellen said they would send naval escorts, it is difficult to implement before the end of the month. Predictive markets indicate a 46% chance of the Strait returning to navigation before April 30, with a 41% likelihood of oil prices breaking $120 within the month, while the extreme scenario of reaching $200 has only a 4% chance.
The crypto market has warmed up this morning, with #BTC rebounding to $72,000, and Ethereum rising to $2,148. Observing funding rates, the previously extreme bearish pattern with all negative values has significantly repaired, with mainstream cryptocurrencies' rates largely returning to neutral ranges, indicating a cooling of sentiment after short-seller capitulation. Funding rates serve as a dynamic balancing mechanism for the long and short costs of perpetual contracts; their convergence towards the 0.01% benchmark level means that the leveraged market is transitioning from panic selling to a short-term equilibrium state; however, caution is needed as the geopolitical risks of oil prices, if they continue to ferment, may exert secondary pressure tests on cryptocurrencies like BTC through both liquidity tightening and risk asset reassessment.

【March 11 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、#G7 Group Statement: Support for taking proactive measures to respond to the current situation, including the use of strategic oil reserves;
2、Institutions: The global economy is resilient, and the risk of stagflation this time is much lower than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict;
3、Coinbase: Indicators show that recent spot demand has been strong enough to absorb excess selling pressure;
4、Institutions: #Japan The central bank is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in March.

Today, the G7 statement supports the use of strategic oil reserves to respond to the situation, with oil prices becoming the core driving force in the market, potentially overshadowing tonight's U.S. February inflation data. Trump stated that the conflict will end soon, which eased market sentiment slightly, but there is still close attention on the evolution of the situation. Although inflation data is usually a key indicator, the impact of this release on the market and Federal Reserve policy may be limited, as geopolitical uncertainty has reduced investors' focus on economic indicators. Thanks to the resilience of the global economy, the current risk of stagflation is far lower than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. Although the market is concerned about soaring oil prices triggering inflation shocks, the probability of sustained inflation is not high, and the one-year inflation breakeven rate in the U.S. has already broken upward, while medium- and long-term interest rates remain stable.
In the cryptocurrency market, since late February, the short-term holders' SOPR indicators for #BTC and #ETH have rebounded, indicating strong spot demand, sufficient to absorb selling pressure, and the market structure is becoming healthier. This shows that new entrants have not exhibited panic selling, and the 'weaker hands' have been cleaned out. Against the backdrop of increased geopolitical risks and traditional market volatility, BTC's safe-haven attributes are expected to be highlighted. If high oil prices are accompanied by stable long-term inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve's policy constraints and falling real interest rates will create a favorable environment for BTC, and the warming of short-term holder indicators will also lay the foundation for subsequent price increases.

【March 10th Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP said "the war will end soon," crude oil once fell more than 30% from its peak, and U.S. stocks closed with widespread gains, while the Japanese and Korean stock markets opened higher;
2、#BTC the leverage ratio has significantly decreased since February, and the spot market is expected to take over the dominance of coin prices;
3、#BSC Chinese Meme coin "lobster" reached a market value of 16 million U.S. dollars this morning, with a 24-hour increase of 127%;
4、Deutsche Bank: The current global energy trend is "strikingly similar" to the stagflation nightmare of the 1970s.

Trump announced that the Iran conflict is nearing its end, progressing much faster than the previously expected four to five-week cycle. This statement quickly eased market concerns about the situation in the Middle East, and crude oil #WTI fell in response, dropping more than 30% from its previous peak to 85.58 dollars/barrel; the U.S. stock market saw a collective surge in the late trading hours, with the Nasdaq up 1.38%, basically recovering the losses since the conflict began, and the Japanese and Korean stock markets also opened significantly higher.
The decrease in geopolitical risks directly boosted risk asset sentiment, with Bitcoin breaking through the 70,000 dollar mark, showing an increase of over 4% in 24 hours. It is worth noting that since February, the estimated leverage ratio for Bitcoin has sharply declined from 0.198 to 0.152, a significant decrease that occurred rapidly, which is typically accompanied by a wave of deleveraging following violent fluctuations — during the price drop from 96,000 dollars to 69,000 dollars, panic-driven active liquidations and forced clearances intertwined, leading to a substantial contraction in open contracts. If the leverage ratio does not rebound during the consolidation period, it often indicates that spot funds are regaining pricing power, which helps the market achieve a healthier bottom structure before a new trend forms; a low leverage environment means reduced systemic selling pressure, providing a more solid foundation for subsequent market movements.

【March 9th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. This week's macro outlook: Energy trends become the focus, inflation data takes a back seat;
2. Goldman Sachs: Hedge funds are increasing their short bets on the stock market at a pace not seen in nearly five years on #usa ;
3. Bloomberg: #CRYPTO once again becomes the only public window for traders to gauge the Middle East conflict;
4. #WTI crude oil surged 30% in a day; Analysis: If oil prices maintain the current level for 3 months, the U.S. inflation rate will reach its highest level since September 2023.

Recently, the situation in the Middle East has become tense, and trading activity in commodity perpetual contracts on crypto trading platforms has been active. Due to the provision of 24/7 uninterrupted trading contracts, it has become an important channel for investors to measure and respond to risks during traditional market closures. Although mainly driven by crypto-native investors and overall limited in scale, its price fluctuations reflect market sentiment in real-time, highlighting the unique value of on-chain financial markets in responding to sudden uncertainties.
This trend has multiple effects on the crypto market. On one hand, it strengthens #BTC 's role as a proxy for macro risk assets, with Bitcoin prices rebounding in sync with risk-off sentiment during this event. On the other hand, the successful application of crypto-native financial products such as perpetual contracts is accelerating the migration of traditional assets to on-chain, showcasing the feasibility and demand for "around-the-clock trading." In the long run, this may attract more traditional capital attention and inflow into the crypto ecosystem, bringing broader liquidity and application scenarios to the entire market, including Bitcoin.

【March 6th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Forecast: The US unemployment rate for February and #非农 data will be released tonight;
2. Market News: A US judge will hold a closed-door 'settlement meeting' on the tariff refund case on Friday regarding #TRUMP ;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate that the market still leans bearish;
4. 10x Research: Institutional capital is reshaping the landscape of crypto stocks, with structural changes evident in the mining sector.

Latest news shows that the movements of institutional capital and the shifts in corporate financial strategies are quietly reshaping the stock patterns associated with crypto assets. Capital is being reallocated, resulting in significant disparities in the performance of related stocks. Taking the mining company Bitdeer as an example, although its stock price shows short-term technical indicators improving, the medium to long-term trend remains unclear. Market focus is on its latest capital operations: the company is supporting its strategic transition to AI infrastructure through large-scale financing and has cleared all Bitcoin reserves in exchange for expansion funds. Meanwhile, its Bitcoin output has seen a month-over-month increase. This seemingly contradictory operation—where one strips away native crypto assets while strengthening computational power—reflects profound structural evolution within the mining sector, with some companies attempting to break free from dependence on purely price cycles.
From a broader market sentiment perspective, the funding rate of #BTC perpetual contracts has turned negative, which is typically seen as a short-term bearish signal for the market. Overall, the strategic transformation of mining companies and the cautious sentiment in the derivatives market mirror each other, possibly indicating that this cycle is entering a complex phase. For Bitcoin, the sale of reserve assets by mining companies may bring additional selling pressure, while the overall contraction of market risk appetite will suppress buying interest. These structural changes suggest that the forces driving BTC prices are shifting from purely macro narratives to more specific industry capital allocations and supply-demand dynamics.

【March 5th Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP was forced to upgrade Middle East war deployments, and the conflict window may extend to 100 days;
2、Since the US-Iran conflict, silver has significantly retreated about 18% from its high point, while #GOLD retreated about 5.3%;
3、The US Senate failed to prevent further military action against Iran, and air raid alarms sounded in Tel Aviv, Israel;
4、Goldman Sachs: The recent pullback in risk assets is a buying opportunity rather than the beginning of a long-term bear market.

The United States is accelerating the evacuation of its citizens from the Middle East and significantly increasing the deployment of military intelligence personnel to support a new round of military operations that may extend for months. Major European countries such as the UK, France, and Germany are cautious about directly participating in offensive strikes, and market forecasts show that the probability of their direct involvement has dropped to a low level. The willingness of regional countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar to join the conflict has also weakened. These dynamics collectively point to a trend: although the conflict continues, the likelihood of it spilling over into a larger multinational joint operation is decreasing.
This subtle change in the geopolitical landscape is influencing the cryptocurrency market through risk appetite and liquidity channels. Bitcoin demonstrated strong price resilience at the onset of the crisis, not experiencing a panic sell-off, and its hedging value as an alternative asset is once again in the spotlight. The current core narrative in the market has shifted partly from fear of an unbounded escalation of war to expectations of supply chain recovery. For example, Goldman Sachs' bullish view against the trend is based on the expectation that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to return to normal in a few weeks. If energy channels can be quickly restored as expected, it will alleviate global stagflation concerns, thereby supporting risk assets, including #BTC . In the short term, the market may oscillate within a range, awaiting clearer fundamental signals.

【March 4th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. US CFTC Chairman: Ready to implement the "#CLARITY Act" during Trump's term;
2. Glassnode: The total contract open interest across the network recently saw the largest single-day increase since July last year;
3. Santiment: Discussions on social media about the "Altcoin Season" have dropped to extremely low levels, historical data shows that this situation usually indicates a rebound is on the horizon;
4. CEX balance has plummeted to #ETH : Outflows in February exceeded 31 million coins, with CEX balance hitting the lowest level since 2020.

The latest data shows a significant increase in activity in the crypto derivatives market, with total contract open interest reaching a peak single-day increase not seen in months. Meanwhile, as Bitcoin's price tests the $69,400 level, market leverage has also rapidly increased, which usually indicates that a large number of speculators are betting on the price breaking through key psychological levels. However, this high-leverage environment is also a double-edged sword; if the price fails to rise as expected, it can easily trigger a chain liquidation, exacerbating short-term market volatility.
On the other hand, market sentiment presents an interesting contrarian signal. Discussions on social platforms regarding "Altcoin Season" have fallen to abnormally low levels. Historical experience suggests that when interest in high-risk assets like altcoins drops to a freezing point, it often indicates that sentiment has become overly pessimistic, which may ironically serve as a potential signal for a market sentiment reversal. From the perspective of capital flow, this general indifference may prompt major funds to withdraw from the noisy speculation and refocus on core assets like #BTC , providing stronger support for their prices. However, this sentiment indicator is not a panacea; it more suggests that the market may be at an important juncture rather than providing clear buy or sell signals.

【March 3rd Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP stated that the U.S. military can continue to fight indefinitely and win beautifully, while the Israeli army is simultaneously launching attacks on Tehran and Beirut;
2、Affected by the escalating situation in the Middle East and the expectation of soaring energy costs, U.S. stock index futures fell, and stock markets in Japan and South Korea also declined;
3、Analysis: If the Strait of Hormuz is closed for an extended period, it may trigger a global economic 'certain recession';
4、Bloomberg: The impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on #BTC is limited, currently stabilizing in the range of $60,000 to $70,000.

The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has sharply heightened risk-averse sentiment in global financial markets. U.S. stock index futures and major Asia-Pacific stock indices have seen significant declines. However, Bitcoin, regarded as 'digital gold,' rebounded after initially following the market's brief downturn, with prices even rising back to levels prior to the incident, showing a clear divergence from traditional safe-haven assets.
This independent trend reveals the deep structure of the current cryptocurrency market. After experiencing a significant correction, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a key price range. More importantly, the excessive leverage in the previous market has been largely cleared, and retail participation and incremental capital inflows have both weakened. Against the backdrop of a lighter overall market position, the chain reactions and selling pressure that external sudden shocks can trigger are also relatively limited, making Bitcoin exhibit stronger price resilience.

【March 2nd Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Although the direction of the US-Iran conflict remains unclear, institutions generally expect limited impact on US stocks;
2. Viewpoint: #BTC relative to gold's weak indicators has reached a critical point, which may indicate a reversal in Bitcoin's price;
3. Analysis: BTC technical indicators have shown a death cross, with prior cycles warning of 'the market's last drop';
4. JPMorgan: Crypto market structural legislation may be passed mid-year, potentially boosting the market in the second half.

#TRUMP After making strong statements about the situation in Iran, geopolitical tensions escalated suddenly, and market risk aversion sentiment increased accordingly. This caused US stock futures to decline and prompted some funds to flow into traditional safe assets such as US Treasury bonds and gold. The market generally believes that if the scope of the conflict is limited, its impact on financial markets will be controllable, but volatility will undoubtedly rise significantly in the short term.
This macro backdrop poses complex effects on the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin. On one hand, geopolitical risks may reinforce Bitcoin's narrative logic as a non-sovereign alternative asset, and its gold-like safe-haven properties may attract some funds seeking refuge outside traditional markets. Some viewpoints point out from a value comparison perspective that Bitcoin is historically undervalued relative to gold, providing fundamental support for potential long-term price recovery. However, on the other hand, Bitcoin's own short-term technical signals appear relatively pessimistic, with the bearish formation of key moving averages suggesting that the market may not have fully cleared. Therefore, Bitcoin may find itself caught in a tug-of-war between the support brought by geopolitical risks and internal technical selling pressure in the short term, leading to increased volatility.

【February 28th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond fell to 4.63%, the lowest level since October of last year;
2. The worsening situation between the U.S. and Iran has further impacted the market, with #BTC dropping below $65,000, and the Nasdaq and S&P recorded the largest monthly decline in nearly a year;
3. Vitalik: #ETH expansion will be implemented in two phases, short-term and long-term, introducing multi-dimensional Gas to avoid state inflation;
4. NVIDIA is about to launch AI-specific processing chips.

The geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated, significantly increasing market risk aversion. As a result, global risk assets were generally under pressure at the end of February, with the total market value of the cryptocurrency market falling to about $2.27 trillion, and Bitcoin's intraday price dropping below $66,000. Meanwhile, U.S. long-term Treasury bonds are in high demand, with their 30-year yield falling to 4.63%, a new low since October of last year. The U.S. stock market has also not been spared, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices recording significant declines in February, indicating that funds are withdrawing from high-risk areas.
From the market interpretation, such geopolitical crises usually immediately impact the prices of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as they are still widely regarded as high-risk preference assets and face sell-offs in times of panic. However, the long-term effects are more complex. A decline in U.S. Treasury yields often indicates a change in market expectations regarding economic growth and inflation, while Bitcoin, due to its fixed supply characteristic, is often viewed by some investors as a tool for hedging traditional financial risks. Therefore, although short-term price declines are hard to avoid, if the situation continues to be turbulent, some capital seeking alternative safe havens may reassess and flow into the crypto space, thus providing new support for the market.

【February 27th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Goldman Sachs: #NVIDIA Nvidia's strong earnings report fails to prevent stock price decline, pressure from profit-taking emerges;
2. Santiment: The number of addresses holding at least 100 coins #BTC is about to exceed 20,000, Bitcoin is experiencing 'strong-weak hand switching';
3. Current mainstream #CEX , DEX funding rates indicate the market is turning bearish again;
4. Yesterday, the net inflow of Bitcoin in the U.S. was #etf , amounting to $254 million, while Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of $6.6 million.

BTC shows a short-term oscillation pattern, and derivatives data indicate that funding rates have turned negative, suggesting that most traders are turning bearish. This sentiment often arises during price pullbacks, but historical experience shows that when shorts become too crowded, the market is more likely to trigger a rapid rebound due to short covering, forming a technical 'short squeeze' trend. Thus, the current pessimistic sentiment in the market may lay the groundwork for a subsequent short-term rebound.
Meanwhile, on-chain data shows an important trend: the number of addresses holding at least 100 Bitcoins is approaching a critical milestone of 20,000. This is typically seen as a signal of an accumulation phase, indicating that more high-net-worth entities are diversifying their Bitcoin holdings. Although this reduces the concentration of top addresses, wealth is also shifting towards 'whales,' not completely retail-dispersed. If this change is accompanied by a continued shift of supply from retail to large holders, it has historically laid the foundation for long-term price recovery.

【February 25 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Spot #GOLD reached $5200 per ounce, silver surged 4% during the day;
2. Morgan Stanley: Expects Nvidia Q4 performance to be strong, growth driven by the AI boom has not slowed down;
3. Bitcoin #ahr999 'buying the dip' indicator fell below 0.3, approaching the low point of February 6 again;
4. Bloomberg analysts: Institutions generally reduced their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs in Q4, with advisors and hedge funds being the largest sellers.

In the early morning, the crypto market saw a rapid rebound, with #BTC rising above $66,000 in a short time, while #ETH and #sol also rose simultaneously. Although this surge led to over $100 million in short positions being liquidated, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Aside from mainstream cryptocurrencies, most altcoins are still in a negative fee state, indicating that the bearish atmosphere has not changed. Technically, Bitcoin's key support and resistance levels are located around $60,000 and $82,000, respectively. The Gamma distribution in the options market suggests that prices may face increased volatility within certain ranges. On-chain data shows an increase in the proportion of long-term holders, indicating that market supply is tightening, but there are no signs of large-scale inflows of new capital.
Institutional investors continued to reduce their holdings of Bitcoin ETFs in the fourth quarter of last year, creating ongoing spot selling pressure, which directly suppressed the price's upward space and is one of the core reasons why the market struggles to form a trend upward. Additionally, the on-chain situation of "supply decreasing but capital not flowing back" indicates that the market has fallen into a "defensive mode" dominated by trapped positions, lacking fresh buying pressure to drive the rebound's sustainability. However, some oversold indicators (such as the Ahr999 index, which has deeply entered the 'buying the dip' zone) also suggest that the market may be accumulating momentum for a technical rebound. Overall, BTC may experience a rebound in the short term due to technical overselling and short squeeze, but until there is an improvement in the macro liquidity situation, the overall pattern still leans towards fluctuation and defense.

【February 24th Market Information and Data Analysis】
1. Tariff uncertainty has resurfaced, with options market betting on downside risks for #BTC ;
2. #AI impacts traditional business models, IBM plummets by 11%, and the crypto market declines simultaneously;
3. Market speculation enthusiasm cools, with the total open positions for Bitcoin contracts hitting a new low since August last year;
4. Institutions forecast a significant investigation raising speculation: involving insider trading of the "most profitable crypto companies", predicting market and #TRUMP related projects face named doubts.

Currently, the market is facing dual pressures. On one hand, trade policies are experiencing new uncertainties, exacerbating macroeconomic uncertainty; on the other hand, a hypothetical research report about artificial intelligence potentially triggering a "global intelligence crisis" in 2028 is widely circulated on Wall Street, raising deep concerns about white-collar employment and the credit system. This directly impacts the stock market, especially the technology and financial sectors, and drives funds towards traditional safe-haven assets such as government bonds and gold.
This strong risk-averse sentiment poses direct pressure on the crypto market. The Bitcoin options market shows that traders are actively buying put options to hedge against downside risks, while the open positions in the futures market and the stablecoin reserves of exchanges have significantly shrunk. This clearly indicates that leveraged funds and speculative enthusiasm are retreating, and overall market participation is cooling. For Bitcoin, facing the dual pressure of suppressed macro risk appetite and ongoing tightening liquidity, it will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and the market is preparing for possible further downward volatility.

【February 13 Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP Tariff policies face significant changes, the U.S. House of Representatives vetoed additional tariffs on Canada;
2、#AI Anxiety triggers capital "flight", U.S. stocks plummet, the crypto market declines, gold and silver crash simultaneously;
3、#SEC Chairman: To make cryptocurrency policies permanent, legislation needs to be advanced;
4、CFTC establishes an innovation advisory committee, with several leaders from the crypto industry selected.

In global market trading, concerns about AI potentially eroding corporate profits have triggered widespread sell-offs in risk assets. The three major U.S. stock indices have significantly corrected, with declines ranging from 1.3% to 2%, and large tech companies have become the focus of selling. Meanwhile, the precious metals market has experienced severe declines for no clear reason, with spot gold once plunging about 4%, and silver showing even more significant drops. The cryptocurrency market subsequently came under pressure, with #BTC prices once touching around $65,118, while Ethereum briefly fell below the $1,900 mark, leading to a slight contraction in the total market capitalization.
This market-wide decline presents a complex picture for the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. In the short term, the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, as a global risk asset barometer, has directly suppressed investors' risk appetite, causing capital to flow out of high-risk areas like cryptocurrencies. However, compared to the deep declines of traditional stock markets and precious metals, the overall decline in the crypto market has been relatively mild, which may suggest a subtle change in its correlation with traditional assets. In the long term, the AI technological changes that triggered this round of volatility essentially represent a deepening of the digital economy, which may actually reinforce the market's re-evaluation of the value of blockchain infrastructure and its core assets (such as Bitcoin). Therefore, this pullback is more likely to be a short-term fluctuation driven by traditional market sentiment, and does not alter the long-term narrative of cryptocurrencies as key assets in the digital age.

【February 11 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. stock crypto shares closed down across the board, Gemini (#GEMI ) fell by 7.72%, Ethereum treasury stocks collectively suffered setbacks;
2. Grayscale report: Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative faces challenges, price behavior is increasingly resembling high-risk growth assets;
3. On-chain data: Bitcoin's rebound fails to conceal market panic, the probability of continued rebound may increase;
4. Goldman Sachs disclosed $2.36 billion in crypto asset exposure, including #BTC , #ETH , XRP, and #sol .

The latest report released by Grayscale indicates that Bitcoin's hedging properties as 'digital gold' have recently been challenged, with its price behavior closer to that of high-risk assets such as tech stocks. The report analyzes that this high correlation with the software sector partly stems from market concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence and the capital flows brought by Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that it is becoming more deeply integrated into the traditional financial system. Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 to $69,000; although spot trading volume has increased, it remains low, showing reduced selling pressure and cautious buyers, with the market exhibiting characteristics of capital exchange. Derivative positions are leaning towards defense, with ETF trading volume surging to $45.5 billion but accompanied by capital outflows, indicating low risk appetite. On-chain data reflects a warming of fundamental activities, but net capital inflow is negative and unrealized losses dominate the supply. The key to the continued market recovery lies in the repair of spot demand to stabilize prices above recent lows.
This shift has far-reaching implications for the crypto market, especially for BTC. In the short term, Bitcoin's price may be more susceptible to stock market fluctuations and macro sentiment, exacerbating market volatility. However, in the long run, this reflects its ongoing evolution as an emerging asset class, with increased institutional participation laying a broader acceptance foundation. Although it will take time to completely replace gold's monetary status, in the wave of global economic digitization, Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value is still gradually developing.

【February 10th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Reuters warns: #TRUMP economic statements are chaotic, which may drag down the Republican midterm elections;
2. #FED considers opening the payment system to non-bank institutions, causing industry disputes;
3. Glassnode: #BTC selling pressure temporarily eases, market recovery requires renewed spot demand;
4. US tech funds recorded an inflow of $6 billion last week, the largest inflow in nearly two months.

Media analysis points out that Trump's statements on inflation and cost of living are unfocused, laying a hidden danger for the Republican midterm elections. Multiple Republican strategists warn that Trump may repeat Biden's mistakes, damaging party credibility in the economic areas most concerning to voters. Data shows that in the five economic speeches since December last year, Trump claimed inflation was under control nearly 20 times and emphasized price declines 30 times, but reality is significantly diverging from public perception—over the past year, the inflation rate remains at 3%, with ground beef and coffee prices rising by 18% and 29%, respectively. Statistics indicate that nearly half of Trump's approximately 5-hour speech deviated from economic themes, shifting to immigration and political attacks. There are concerns within the Republican Party that his "interspersed" style is diluting core economic messages. Polls show only 35% of Americans approve of Trump's economic management. Former officials point out that in an election year, empathy must be communicated to voters; ignoring this point is precisely the lesson of Biden's defeat.
The Glassnode report shows Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 to $70,000, with spot trading volume expanding but still at low levels, indicating reduced selling pressure while buyers remain cautious, and the market shows characteristics of chip exchange. Derivative positions lean towards defense, with ETF trading volume surging to $45.5 billion but accompanied by capital outflows, reflecting low risk appetite. On-chain data reflects a warming of fundamental activity, but net capital inflows are negative and unrealized losses dominate supply. The key to continuous market recovery lies in restoring spot demand to stabilize prices above recent lows.

【February 9 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1. The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since February 4, with spot gold and silver continuing last week's upward trend;
2. The Financial Times published an article criticizing cryptocurrencies: #BTC is still severely overvalued, and a crash is imminent;
3. Bitcoin's spot total assets have fallen below $100 billion at #etf , with a cumulative net inflow of 68918 BTC since its listing;
4. #Base ecological part tokens have begun to rise, with #BNKR and CLAWNCH leading the gains.

Bitcoin's recent price has been highly volatile, briefly dropping to around $60,000 last week, reversing all gains since Trump's re-election, and down more than 50% from the historical high in October last year. Accompanying the price adjustment, there has been a large-scale forced liquidation in the market. Despite continuous positive signals from US policy, it has failed to prevent this sell-off. Data shows that the total asset size of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has fallen below $100 billion, currently around $99.16 billion, shrinking about 40% from its peak, though cumulative net inflow since listing still exceeds 680,000 BTC.
This volatility once again highlights the high-risk characteristics of the crypto market. The sharp price fluctuations reflect the fragility of market sentiment and speculative funds, while ETF fund flows reveal the tug-of-war between short-term selling pressure and long-term institutional interest. Although long-term holders and structural demand (such as ETF net inflows) provide some support for the market, positive policies are difficult to reverse trends dominated by the macro environment or market confidence in the short term. For BTC, its price discovery process will still be accompanied by extreme volatility, and the shaking of market confidence may make it more susceptible to liquidity changes, testing its dual attributes as a risk asset and a potential store of value.

【February 6 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1. The global risk market plunged again, with #BTC dropping to the $60,000 mark, silver fell nearly 30% within 24 hours;
2. The total market value of cryptocurrencies dropped to $2.295 trillion, with a decline of over 10% in 24 hours;
3. #hype rose against the market trend, showing stable price performance during the market crash;
4. Currently, the weekly oversold signal strength of Bitcoin is comparable to that of June 2022.

Today, global risk assets faced massive sell-offs again, with the cryptocurrency market being hit the hardest. Bitcoin's price dipped to the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum lost the $1,800 support, causing a daily evaporation of over 10% in overall market value. This turmoil spread to traditional markets, with U.S. stock index futures, Japanese and Korean stock markets, and #GOLD , as well as precious metals like silver, all declining. The intense price fluctuations led to significant losses for leveraged traders, with the number of liquidations around the world surging in the past 24 hours, amounting to billions of dollars.
This widespread market decline reflects a rise in risk-aversion sentiment under tightening macro liquidity expectations. For Bitcoin, its weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 25, entering a deep oversold range, highlighting technical vulnerabilities. The market's "Fear and Greed Index" also points to extreme fear, indicating that investor confidence has been severely undermined. If macro pressures persist, Bitcoin may face further tests, and in the short term, it is crucial to monitor whether effective support can be established near the key psychological Bitcoin level, while the medium to long-term trend will depend on whether market expectations regarding a shift in monetary policy can improve.

【February 5th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Analysis: The rebound momentum of #dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on gold and silver trends, and the downward pressure may continue;
2. Geopolitical tensions combined with the revaluation of tech stocks have kept the market in the later stages of deleveraging, with safe-haven assets dominating risk pricing;
3. After several twists and turns, negotiations between the US and Iran have resumed, with #BTC hitting a new low in a bear market, and the Nasdaq closing down 1.5% leading to a widespread decline in crypto stocks;
4. Tether released its Q4 report: #USDT data set several new highs in Q4 2025.

The US and Iran have differences regarding the location of talks on nuclear issues, with Iran proposing to move the meeting from the originally scheduled Istanbul to Oman, and hoping to conduct it bilaterally, but this proposal was rejected by the US. This setback once prompted the Trump administration to threaten to withdraw from negotiations, followed by high-level mediation from several Middle Eastern countries. Ultimately, the talks were set to take place on February 6th in Muscat, the capital of Oman.
This geopolitical uncertainty quickly transmitted to financial markets. Bitcoin prices have continuously declined during the news disturbance, currently nearing the $70,000 mark, setting a recent new low. Meanwhile, the US tech sector and cryptocurrency-related stocks have generally seen significant declines, with the market experiencing substantial long position liquidations. This reflects that, against the backdrop of the ongoing global deleveraging process, the market is highly sensitive to liquidity tightening and geopolitical risks. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are still widely regarded as barometers of risk appetite, and during times of rising macro uncertainty and capital leaning towards defense, they often come under pressure first. Future market trends will still need close monitoring of whether the geopolitical situation escalates and whether adjustments in tech stock valuations will trigger broader asset sell-offs.

【February 4th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Goldman Sachs: Western capital flows dominated the precious metals market in January, with upward risks in the gold forecast;
2. #Vitalik stated that #L2 's original vision is 'outdated,' sparking heated discussions: the original route is no longer reasonable, calling for a search for new paths;
3. #BTC has erased all gains since #TRUMP was elected;
4. Senate Democrats will hold another closed-door meeting tomorrow regarding the '#CLARITY bill'.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its historical high last October, briefly dipping below $73,000, erasing all gains since the U.S. election in November last year. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's hedging properties are being questioned, with its performance resembling that of purely speculative assets. If the downward trend continues, it could pose a serious threat to the balance sheets of companies that actively allocated Bitcoin as a reserve asset over the past year. Meanwhile, the spot Bitcoin ETF, while expanding the investor base, has also reinforced its characteristics as a risk asset, significantly increasing its correlation with U.S. stocks. Recently, the Bitcoin ETF has continued to record significant capital outflows, indicating that institutional investors are withdrawing, which could create a negative feedback loop of accelerated selling in a declining market.
The deeper impact of this crash could potentially shake the overall structure of the cryptocurrency market. If prices further decline to critical cost lines, a large number of miners will face existential crises, directly affecting the security foundation of the Bitcoin network. As the interweaving of crypto assets and traditional financial products becomes increasingly tight, a sharp drop in Bitcoin could trigger a cross-market collateral liquidation crisis. This would not only severely impact financial products that rely on such structures but could also lead to a sudden liquidity drought, transmitting risks to a broader range of crypto assets.