【February 3rd Market News and Data Analysis】

1. Morgan Stanley: Under the leadership of Kevin Walsh, #Fed may intensify fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market;

2. The U.S. Senate passed a compromise plan to avoid government shutdown, the House faces a critical 'rule vote' test;

3. Bloomberg: ETF investors with #BTC have an average buying cost of about $84,100, currently facing a floating loss of about 8% to 9%;

4. #TRUMP : I am a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and one of the most vocal advocates for the crypto industry.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that Kevin Walsh, the nominee to replace Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May, may reshape the communication framework of monetary policy. This official, who served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, advocates for allowing the market to independently assess economic trends. His inclination to 'reduce the balance sheet' may push up long-term Treasury yields, leading to a steepening of the yield curve. More concerning is that the Federal Reserve under Walsh may significantly reduce transparency—reducing media interactions before FOMC meetings and even canceling forward guidance tools like the dot plot. This shift in communication style may amplify fluctuations in the Treasury market.

The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a 'silent' adjustment. The average holding cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors is about $84,100, while the current price has dipped to around $78,500, indicating that this portion of institutional funds is facing an 8%-9% floating loss. A deeper issue is the 'collective absence' of buying power: since mid-January, ETFs have experienced large net outflows for two consecutive weeks, selling over 27,000 Bitcoins, showing that institutions have not bought back after the cost line was breached. Unlike the panic selling during the sharp decline in October 2024, the characteristic of this round of decline is the withdrawal of liquidity and market indifference—the once optimistic regulatory expectations and retail enthusiasm that pushed the price to $125,000 have faded. If funds continue to exit, the 200-week moving average near $57,000 will become a critical defense line, which has historically served as an opportunity for long-term funds to re-enter. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has recently decoupled from traditional favorable factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, and the weakening appeal of macro narratives has led to a loss of direction. A short-term rebound without incremental funds is more likely to be a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.