【January 8 Market Information and Data Analysis】

1、After the release of U.S. #ADP employment data, the probability of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve has further decreased;

2、Coinbase CEO sells but never buys? Sold all 88 shares of his own company's stock, with no record of any increase in holdings;

3、Analysis: The current market rebound is driven by spot markets, but speculative positions may have been excessively accumulated in the short term;

4、Opinion: The claim of "#venezuela 600 billion USD #BTC position" lacks supporting evidence.

The latest U.S. economic data shows that ADP employment numbers increased by 41,000 in December, indicating a slow recovery in the job market. Although this figure is below expectations, it has been enough to cause a subtle shift in market sentiment toward the Federal Reserve. With the improvement in employment data, market expectations for rate cuts have become slightly more conservative. Data from #cme shows that the probability of a January rate cut by the Federal Reserve has dropped from 17.7% last week to about 11.1%.

At the same time, the Bitcoin market has also experienced technical fluctuations. Data shows that Bitcoin's Net Taker Volume (25-hour moving average) has fallen to approximately -19 million USD, marking the strongest selling pressure since December 23. This indicator suggests that the market trading rhythm has shifted from buyer-dominated to seller-dominated in the short term, with significantly increased selling pressure. CryptoQuant's analysis indicates that although Bitcoin's liquidity channels have become increasingly diversified and traditional capital inflow logic is harder to grasp, institutional long-term holding of Bitcoin remains unchanged, with strategic funds still holding the majority of 673,000 Bitcoins. According to their analysis, Bitcoin may no longer experience extreme sell-offs of over 50% as seen in previous bear markets, but instead could enter a period of sideways consolidation over the coming months.