非农就业数据

$ETH
🔥 Urgent Interpretation: Is the job market really collapsing? Has the interest rate cut become a 'done deal'?

Brothers, last night the ADP data surprised us again! In November, the U.S. private sector laid off 32,000 people, marking the largest drop since March last year, especially with small businesses recording the worst layoffs in nearly three years. This has truly shocked the market.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the market is betting on a nearly 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December! This is almost a default expectation for a cut.

What impact does this have on our cryptocurrency market? The logic is simple:

· Poor employment data → Significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut rates → Dollar expectations weaken → Global liquidity is expected to improve → Risk assets (including cryptocurrencies) receive potential supportive benefits.
· You see, BTC has already rebounded from its previous low, and the key level to watch now is around $93,000.

However (important point!), don't rush to shout that 'the super bull market is here'.

1. A single piece of ADP data does not represent the whole picture; the official non-farm payroll report will not be released until December 16 (later than the Federal Reserve meeting), and there are variables involved.
2. The Federal Reserve is also quite conflicted; on one hand, employment may cool down, while on the other hand, inflation (watch tonight's PCE data) has not fully met expectations. When Powell meets next week, whether he will ease off or continue to hold firm will be the key to determining whether it's a 'trend market' or a 'disappointment correction'.

So, the current situation is: the door to rate cuts has been pushed open wide by the data, but whether we can step inside ultimately depends on how the Federal Reserve decides next week. The market's celebration is either premature or genuinely kicking off; we shall see next week.

Brothers, do you think this rate cut is 'set in stone' or will there be variables? Let's discuss in the comments! $BTC
$BNB
#非农就业数据

$ETH $ETH Last night's small non-farm data was favorable, yet mainstream cryptocurrencies showed a decline. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks opened lower but rose instead, and there was another situation of pin bars. I mentioned last night to observe the market before deciding whether to enter. Did any fans follow my advice to avoid the pin bar?

Zhao Gongming's strength is not boastful, nor does he make empty promises; he only teaches you practical survival skills. Follow Zhao Gongming, and fans who want to keep up should find Zhao Gongming, who announces entry and exit points in the chat room every day!
If you don't know how to time your entries, you can call 关注赵公明, and Zhao Gongming will provide real-time analysis in the chat room, giving the current best entry points!!#非农就业数据

The release of the non-farm payroll data is positive. Will the market continue to rise tonight? #非农就业数据

$BTC $ETH $SUI
‼️ 💥 ADP data will explode tonight! The Federal Reserve's suspense over the December rate cut is at its peak.

Tonight at 9:15, the ADP employment data will be released, which may become the 'weather vane' for the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision. Expectations among institutions are polarized: FactSet predicts an increase of 40,000 jobs, while Bloomberg only expects 5,000—if the data exceeds expectations, the hawks will gain support, and the dream of a rate cut may face obstacles.

📌 Data blackout period, ADP becomes the 'only clue'
Due to the government shutdown, the BLS employment report is delayed until December 16, making the ADP data a rare 'top' indicator. Although its predictive power has recently weakened, it may still influence policy direction during this vacuum period.

📉 Labor market undercurrents
ADP's weekly data shows that the average number of layoffs per week over the past four weeks is 13,500; the Beige Book states that employment has 'slightly decreased', with half of the regions seeing weakened demand. However, initial jobless claims have fallen to 216,000, consumer confidence employment index has stabilized, and small business hiring has slightly increased—indicating a 'mixed' market.

🎤 Hawks and doves debate, rate cut undecided
Powell stated that a rate cut is 'not inevitable', but Williams, Waller, and Daly have successively 'softened their stance'. Doves support the rate cut, while hawks keep a close watch on inflation—everything depends on whether tonight's ADP can break the deadlock.

🎯 Has the market already placed bets? Rate cut probability skyrockets to 87%
CME tools show that the market bets on a 87% probability of a rate cut in December, far exceeding the previous 37%. However, if ADP is strong, the storm may change suddenly—will the Federal Reserve 'stand pat' or 'ease as scheduled'? The suspense awaits a piece of data to unveil...

⏰ Tonight, one number will determine everything.
#币安区块链周 #加密市场观察 #ETH走势分析 #ETH巨鲸增持 #非农就业数据

Brothers, pay attention! The non-farm payroll data will be released tonight at 9:15. Friends who plan to trade must remember to set stop-loss and take-profit orders in advance, so you won't be caught off guard by unexpected market movements, losing profits for nothing. #非农就业数据

$BNB Is it time to take off? #币安区块链周 Event, gathering of big names, discussing major events, today it will be announced that He Yi will serve as the two joint CEOs, #客服小何 is starting to pull, next there is #非农就业数据 #美联储重启降息步伐 this market won't rise anymore, it will be a bear market 🐻 after all

Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Thunder! The Fed's Policy Shift Signal is Hidden Here

21:15 The November ADP Small Non-Farm Payroll Data from the U.S. is Coming with Great Impact! On the eve of next week's Federal Reserve meeting, the official non-farm and inflation data are absent, making the small non-farm payroll the only key indicator to judge the job market, directly influencing the direction of monetary policy.

Positive data → Market bets on interest rate hikes → Funds withdraw from risk assets; Weak data → Expectations for rate cuts rise → Funds flow in to push up the market. Investors must closely monitor data trends, strengthen the risk defense line, avoid blindly following the trend, as subsequent Federal Reserve policy implementation will further influence the overall market direction! $BTC $ETH #非农就业数据

#非农就业数据
Tonight's non-farm payroll data recorded an employment population of 227,000, with an expectation of 200,000. The previous value was revised from 12,000 to 36,000, which is favorable for the capital market and increases expectations for interest rate cuts. There will also be a speech from Old Powell at 10 PM; let's see what Old Powell has to say. Ultimately, all news must be reflected in the structure, and operations should be conducted according to the structure~

🎉Today's pancakes are sold directly by everyone. U is directly delivered to your mouth again. As I said, you only need to rise slightly to eat it.

The layout of the points is open to everyone. If you don't dare to eat it, what can I do?

Just like I said, if the market is falling, half of the people will choose to withdraw from the circle. Who will the dog dealer play for?

Miracles always happen to the warriors. So did you cherish the decision you made before 8:30 because of the points I announced? Or are you regretting it now?

🎉 Congratulations again to the family members who are bullish on the pancake near 55600. Now the first echelon has reached 56600 and gained 1000 points of space. The second echelon can still continue the pattern #BTC走势分析 #非农就业数据 #大盘动态

When your real friends talk about how you made a quick buck, it feels like you made millions in a short time.
Only you know how difficult it was for you to climb out of the quagmire all the way, from 21 years to 24 years. You cried and regretted more than once because of losses. You had to pay off all kinds of credit card debts when your salary was paid. When you failed, you faced accusations and confusion from people around you. You also wanted to stop, but you couldn't find a second chance to change your fate.
Until you found an empty heart, all the scars in the past were engraved there, you no longer made mistakes that made you particularly painful, and when you had more funds, you cashed out to make up for your life. You began to reduce your leverage and trading frequency, you climbed out with difficulty, and continued to insist on the right transactions. You also envied the myth of getting rich in the circle, but you knew that you could only move forward on the road you were familiar with.
You looked back at the Weibo you created when you started trading, and one of the accounts had been blocked. It recorded your ignorance and enthusiasm for trading in 21 and 22 years. The other recorded your improvement in trading in 23 and 24 years, and gained fans and many friends.
Others only know that you succeeded and made a fortune in just a few months. But only you know that you have been crawling forward every night in the past four years. Thinking of all this, four years have passed in a flash. All this has not come easily.
#非农就业数据  #币圈超话  #区块链超话

Indeed, it perfectly predicted the benchmark point of 4.2%, but now, with one long and one short position, what should we do? In online confusion, I will continue to maintain the 80,000 viewpoint unchanged! #非农就业数据 $BTC

The important support level for Bitcoin during the day is in the range of 107,500 - 108,000, while the resistance level is in the range of 109,500 - 110,000.

The support level for Ethereum during the day is in the range of 2,500 - 2,530, while the resistance level is in the range of 2,650 - 2,700.
​
​It is necessary to closely monitor the market volatility brought by the release of non-farm data. #非农就业数据

🎉Bingzi's needle is really deep. You've been waiting for a day. Are you happy? It directly sent us from the entry position to the stop profit position😁

In the evening, I also posted a message to everyone saying that Bingzi will take advantage of this non-agricultural momentum to rush to 6w first

🎉This time it is inevitable to reach 6w. The idea has been verified again
Congratulations to the friends around 58900. The first echelon has reached 59900 and gained 1000 points of space. The second echelon can continue the pattern of #BTC☀ #大盘动态 #非农就业数据

Affects logic, check it out yourself, don’t forget to like it👍#非农就业数据 #美联储何时降息？

Comprehensive upward adjustment, wages exceed expectations!
The most notable data this time is that the published value mentioned in the previous post did not exceed September's 25.4. In fact, looking at it comprehensively, it is quite contradictory. We still need to see how the US stock market will react. Currently, the cryptocurrency market's reaction to economic data has little reference significance. #非农就业数据

The most difficult night to predict is the non-farm night, will it be a V-shaped rise or a fall?

BTC analysis:
Upper pressure: 70800 ~ 71400
Lower support: First support 69100 ~ 68800,
Second support 68000 ~ 67600

【Fundamentals】
1. Four days later on November 5th, the US election will be held, six days later on November 7th, the Federal Reserve’s November resolution will be held, and tonight on November 1st, the US Department of Labor will release the US October non-farm employment data.

Tonight’s non-farm report may be the most unpredictable this year. On the one hand, the two hurricanes since late September may cause serious interference to economic indicators. On the other hand, at the last moment of the presidential campaign, the report may easily be suspected by the outside world of being used for political manipulation.

Different investment banks have made very different forecasts for tonight's non-agricultural data. The median estimate is about 113,000 people, the highest forecast is 180,000 people, and the lowest is a shocking -10,000 people.

2. Yesterday (October 31), the US Pie ETF had a net inflow for the seventh consecutive day, but the amount dropped sharply to 31.3 million US dollars, and the aunt had a net inflow for the third consecutive day, with the amount increasing to 13 million US dollars. Under the situation of continued net inflow of ETFs, $BTC broke down, mainly due to the influence of macro uncertainty and unfavorable economic data. The disk has not changed fundamentally, waiting for the election results.

Tonight's non-agricultural data is on Friday again, and there may be large fluctuations. 🈴 Forex players need to guard against the risk of up and down pins.

[Technical side] BTC daily level moving average still maintains a long arrangement, MACD column line top divergence, and may form a dead cross, which requires a certain amount of time to repair. Currently supported by the rising trend line and the last round of bull top 69000 area. There is a high probability that the market will maintain a wide range of consolidation before the election.

[Suggestion] Wait patiently for non-agricultural data, focus on short-term operations, stop profits in time, and strictly stop losses.

#非农就业数据 #加密货币急跌 #BTC走势预测 #美国大选后行情预测 #ETH投资

The Silent Capital Struggle Behind Non-Farm Data

#非农就业数据

Non-farm employment data, as a core barometer of traditional financial markets, is reshaping the cryptocurrency market landscape through liquidity transmission.
While Wall Street closely monitors employment data to interpret Federal Reserve policies, the crypto market has already become an extension of the global capital game.

On the surface, the correlation between non-farm data and Bitcoin arises from the chain reaction of U.S. dollar liquidity:
Strong employment data may reinforce interest rate hike expectations, pulling liquidity from risk assets;
Weak data, on the other hand, may foster a fantasy of easing, boosting speculative sentiment.

However, the deeper logic is that institutional investors are incorporating cryptocurrency into their global macro hedging portfolios, making non-farm data a key prism for observing the attitudes of traditional capital.

We must be cautious of the market oversimplifying causal relationships. The independence of the crypto market is strengthening—on-chain data accumulation, DeFi ecosystem expansion, and institutional positioning solidification are all factors that are weakening the unilateral dominance of traditional data over coin prices.
Yet, short-term volatility still struggles to fully detach from macro narratives: when non-farm data triggers significant fluctuations in U.S. stocks, the liquidity premium of Bitcoin is inevitably under pressure.

For investors, non-farm data should be viewed more as a thermometer of market sentiment rather than a holy manual for operations.
Real opportunities often lie in the market divergences following data releases: when traditional investors panic due to data fluctuations, the unique 24-hour trading mechanism and high volatility of the crypto market are creating new windows for value discovery.

I usually share some cutting-edge news and practical strategies, feel free to come and discuss your views, follow me, and let's seize this great opportunity together!

On Friday, there is #非农就业数据 + Trump speaking, there are expectations for speculation, $BTC this week is expected to fluctuate back and forth, CME has appeared with a gap up, the probability of filling is very high