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绣虎_Tiger Charts
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It's the end of the month, and June is often called risk month, let's break down the macro events for June!
📌 First up is the most crucial Federal Reserve meeting, with Waller's first appearance on 6/18!
Then there's Japan's policy meeting; I haven't seen much evidence of a rate hike from Japan, scheduled for 6/13.
Next is the volatile situation in the Middle East, which I personally believe won't lead to easy negotiations, and that's one of the reasons I'm taking a breather these days.
On 6/6, we have the non-farm payroll data, followed by the CPI inflation data on June 11, and PCE inflation data on June 17.
📌 Moving on to U.S. bonds and stocks.
Throughout June, a significant amount of U.S. Treasury bonds will be maturing, not a large-scale event, more of a routine, requiring refinancing.
The authoritative estimate is $1.07 trillion in scale, and if that's accurate, it could drain liquidity.
At the end of June, with the close of Q2 + H1, institutions will likely cash out profits, mutual funds and hedge funds need to assess their performance for the half-year, so there's a high probability they will take profits for the first half.
Will SpaceX's IPO kill valuations? What will be affected? We'll have to wait and see.
📌 Oil will be a constant theme throughout the month.
The uncertainty in U.S.-Iran relations + OPEC, there's anticipation for the OPEC meeting in June, and we might see news regarding production cuts or increases.
Nothing much else to report right now; that's all I know, won't dive into too many details, it's too lengthy.
📌 My short position with $BTC is expected to hold until the end of June; I'm focusing on macro events for the weekly charts and not too concerned with the small cycle technicals!
On the weekly level, I'm betting on a third downturn, with an expected target in the 55/58 range.
I've already reduced this position before, so there's not much to worry about; losses will definitely be manageable, just a profit pullback, and it's worth validating for me! #在币安广场聊传统金融
📌 First up is the most crucial Federal Reserve meeting, with Waller's first appearance on 6/18!
Then there's Japan's policy meeting; I haven't seen much evidence of a rate hike from Japan, scheduled for 6/13.
Next is the volatile situation in the Middle East, which I personally believe won't lead to easy negotiations, and that's one of the reasons I'm taking a breather these days.
On 6/6, we have the non-farm payroll data, followed by the CPI inflation data on June 11, and PCE inflation data on June 17.
📌 Moving on to U.S. bonds and stocks.
Throughout June, a significant amount of U.S. Treasury bonds will be maturing, not a large-scale event, more of a routine, requiring refinancing.
The authoritative estimate is $1.07 trillion in scale, and if that's accurate, it could drain liquidity.
At the end of June, with the close of Q2 + H1, institutions will likely cash out profits, mutual funds and hedge funds need to assess their performance for the half-year, so there's a high probability they will take profits for the first half.
Will SpaceX's IPO kill valuations? What will be affected? We'll have to wait and see.
📌 Oil will be a constant theme throughout the month.
The uncertainty in U.S.-Iran relations + OPEC, there's anticipation for the OPEC meeting in June, and we might see news regarding production cuts or increases.
Nothing much else to report right now; that's all I know, won't dive into too many details, it's too lengthy.
📌 My short position with $BTC is expected to hold until the end of June; I'm focusing on macro events for the weekly charts and not too concerned with the small cycle technicals!
On the weekly level, I'm betting on a third downturn, with an expected target in the 55/58 range.
I've already reduced this position before, so there's not much to worry about; losses will definitely be manageable, just a profit pullback, and it's worth validating for me! #在币安广场聊传统金融
$SNDK The pre-market action in US stocks is heating up, and it’s still fluctuating after the open.
Time to catch some Z's, not much going on 😐. #以色列袭击伊朗军事目标
Time to catch some Z's, not much going on 😐. #以色列袭击伊朗军事目标
Sometimes I feel like my photography skills are pretty dope, but my friends around me don’t want to admit it. I suspect they’re just jelly of my talent. 🙂↔️
Not sure if it's worth paying for or if the return is good!
Both of these things are pretty tough for me, anyway I haven't managed to do either. 🤣#以色列袭击伊朗军事目标
Both of these things are pretty tough for me, anyway I haven't managed to do either. 🤣#以色列袭击伊朗军事目标
On June 6th, I said it would be the last time I write a long post, but I just ended up drafting one again and couldn't control the word count, so now it's turned into another long read, which is frustrating.
Verified
$XAU Here's the second piece, just for reference! #黄金
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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When can we catch the bottom on gold? Here’s a breakdown of the signals you need to watch!
Haven't shared my thoughts on gold for a while, so let's have a quick chat about it!
Looking back at the previous moves: the main drivers of this gold bull market are the ongoing de-dollarization process + central banks consistently hoarding gold, which leads to institutional allocation and retail traders following suit, creating a collective bullish sentiment.
Central banks + institutions + retail traders, passing the baton to pump the market.
After hitting a new high, the factors suppressing further gains include profit-taking and, most importantly, the Middle East situation pushing oil prices up, which in turn fuels global inflation and cools down interest rate cut expectations.
Looking back at the previous moves: the main drivers of this gold bull market are the ongoing de-dollarization process + central banks consistently hoarding gold, which leads to institutional allocation and retail traders following suit, creating a collective bullish sentiment.
Central banks + institutions + retail traders, passing the baton to pump the market.
After hitting a new high, the factors suppressing further gains include profit-taking and, most importantly, the Middle East situation pushing oil prices up, which in turn fuels global inflation and cools down interest rate cut expectations.
Verified
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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Gold & Oil: Too much volatility, no direction? Here are my thoughts and references.
Let’s get straight to the point, talking about gold.
This round, gold's safe-haven status has lost its edge, primarily suppressed by interest rate policies, which we've previously dissected in detail. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have spiked oil prices, driving inflation expectations up, and the market's speculation on rate hikes is heating up, putting direct pressure on gold prices. This is a key reason why the safe-haven logic has faltered.
Gold prices have accumulated a significant rise recently, and coupled with a temporary slowdown in central bank gold purchases across various countries, the bullish buying momentum in the market is lacking, with funds generally adopting a wait-and-see approach. From a long-term perspective, the de-dollarization process is only halfway through, the foundational demand for gold remains, and there are still opportunities for catch-up buys. We need to wait for the Middle East situation to stabilize and ease before entering.
This round, gold's safe-haven status has lost its edge, primarily suppressed by interest rate policies, which we've previously dissected in detail. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have spiked oil prices, driving inflation expectations up, and the market's speculation on rate hikes is heating up, putting direct pressure on gold prices. This is a key reason why the safe-haven logic has faltered.
Gold prices have accumulated a significant rise recently, and coupled with a temporary slowdown in central bank gold purchases across various countries, the bullish buying momentum in the market is lacking, with funds generally adopting a wait-and-see approach. From a long-term perspective, the de-dollarization process is only halfway through, the foundational demand for gold remains, and there are still opportunities for catch-up buys. We need to wait for the Middle East situation to stabilize and ease before entering.
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Took a nice break over the weekend!
On June 6th, the dip down to the 1500/1550 range signaled a good buy for ETH.
If you scooped at 1500, you’re sitting on a sweet 200 point profit; at 1550, you’ve got a cool 150 points.
But I reckon nobody jumped in!
Just caught up on some news; the South Korean stock market is facing another circuit breaker, oil’s bouncing back, gold's taking a hit, and the US and Iran are still at it. It seems like the situation hasn’t really changed much.
Next up, we’ve got the US CPI data dropping on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday. Then it’s onto Japan's rate decision on the 16th and the Fed’s rate decision on the 18th.
Moving forward, the market is likely to revolve around two main things:
1. The Middle East situation remains the key storyline,
2. Central bank rate decisions.
Doesn’t look like there’s much good news on the horizon; the CPI expectation is set at 4.2%, up from last period's 3.8%!
If the actual figure hits that 4.2%, it’ll be the highest since March 2025, perfectly validating the inflation claims tied to the Middle East turmoil.
In summary, we’re still waiting for a major pivot point, and there’s no clear trend shift visible right now.
Any rises should be seen as short-term bounces, not a trend reversal! A trend reversal needs confirmation from right-side signals.
This is just my perspective, not investment advice. #CPI数据 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
On June 6th, the dip down to the 1500/1550 range signaled a good buy for ETH.
If you scooped at 1500, you’re sitting on a sweet 200 point profit; at 1550, you’ve got a cool 150 points.
But I reckon nobody jumped in!
Just caught up on some news; the South Korean stock market is facing another circuit breaker, oil’s bouncing back, gold's taking a hit, and the US and Iran are still at it. It seems like the situation hasn’t really changed much.
Next up, we’ve got the US CPI data dropping on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's rate decision on Thursday. Then it’s onto Japan's rate decision on the 16th and the Fed’s rate decision on the 18th.
Moving forward, the market is likely to revolve around two main things:
1. The Middle East situation remains the key storyline,
2. Central bank rate decisions.
Doesn’t look like there’s much good news on the horizon; the CPI expectation is set at 4.2%, up from last period's 3.8%!
If the actual figure hits that 4.2%, it’ll be the highest since March 2025, perfectly validating the inflation claims tied to the Middle East turmoil.
In summary, we’re still waiting for a major pivot point, and there’s no clear trend shift visible right now.
Any rises should be seen as short-term bounces, not a trend reversal! A trend reversal needs confirmation from right-side signals.
This is just my perspective, not investment advice. #CPI数据 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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The viewpoint on 1550 for the month of $ETH 2 is almost here, the last time I mentioned 1550 was in the post from May 18!
I haven't shared much about ETH lately, as the pinned post discussed BTC's target 🎯.
I've been reminding everyone in the community about this range, but I can't recall where else I've mentioned it.
Since I brought it up, let's keep track: the 1550/1500 range is where you could start buying your first batch of spot. Make sure to hold some capital back for the next phase to add to your position; you can't just go all in right away. The macro risks are still present, and I've hinted at this in past long posts and some threads, though I doubt many saw them. Do your own digging.
This alert 🔔 is strictly for spot holders, ideally those looking to hold long-term; it's not suitable for contracts, and definitely not for those looking to use high leverage.
This opinion is for reference only, profit and loss are your own responsibility! #美国就业超预期比特币下跌 #ETH
I haven't shared much about ETH lately, as the pinned post discussed BTC's target 🎯.
I've been reminding everyone in the community about this range, but I can't recall where else I've mentioned it.
Since I brought it up, let's keep track: the 1550/1500 range is where you could start buying your first batch of spot. Make sure to hold some capital back for the next phase to add to your position; you can't just go all in right away. The macro risks are still present, and I've hinted at this in past long posts and some threads, though I doubt many saw them. Do your own digging.
This alert 🔔 is strictly for spot holders, ideally those looking to hold long-term; it's not suitable for contracts, and definitely not for those looking to use high leverage.
This opinion is for reference only, profit and loss are your own responsibility! #美国就业超预期比特币下跌 #ETH
The last chart I sent for rebates was on April 4th, and it's been 63 days since then! 🎉
Congrats to myself for racking up an extra 8.73u in rebates. 🤣
Sometimes I envy those big players pulling in tens of thousands of u monthly, but I'm just too lazy!
Just dropping a note before bed, use my invite code: XHVIP for a 20% automatic rebate, valid forever. Once you're registered, hit me up in the chat!
Congrats to myself for racking up an extra 8.73u in rebates. 🤣
Sometimes I envy those big players pulling in tens of thousands of u monthly, but I'm just too lazy!
Just dropping a note before bed, use my invite code: XHVIP for a 20% automatic rebate, valid forever. Once you're registered, hit me up in the chat!
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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I don't know why people are spreading rumors, I've been demoted for my rebates for a long time!
The rebate amount is everything, it’s everything. I've been opening nodes for years, that's everything. I hardly did anything, I earn a pittance, there are many people earning millions in rebates a month, this amount is almost nothing.
I haven't earned anyone's money; I've always been sharing for free, no one owes anyone anything.
I haven't even used this invitation link for a long time, I just started promoting it occasionally at the beginning of this year, and the link I’m using is still from a friend, and until now no one has registered. Spreading rumors is shameful. #手续费返佣 #BTC
The rebate amount is everything, it’s everything. I've been opening nodes for years, that's everything. I hardly did anything, I earn a pittance, there are many people earning millions in rebates a month, this amount is almost nothing.
I haven't earned anyone's money; I've always been sharing for free, no one owes anyone anything.
I haven't even used this invitation link for a long time, I just started promoting it occasionally at the beginning of this year, and the link I’m using is still from a friend, and until now no one has registered. Spreading rumors is shameful. #手续费返佣 #BTC
Anyone know how to create a mint green avatar? I think it looks pretty dope.
Mint薄荷綠
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Ugh
In the past three months, I made a total of 10k USDT during the bull run.
I took some profits along the way.
I withdrew my principal and took out some profits,
but in the end, I followed a trade and went from 6000 USDT down to less than 500 USDT.
I don't know what to do anymore.
I never imagined my biggest loss in the game would come from following trades.
Out of trust, I still haven't manually closed my positions...
In the past three months, I made a total of 10k USDT during the bull run.
I took some profits along the way.
I withdrew my principal and took out some profits,
but in the end, I followed a trade and went from 6000 USDT down to less than 500 USDT.
I don't know what to do anymore.
I never imagined my biggest loss in the game would come from following trades.
Out of trust, I still haven't manually closed my positions...
The show of going short from around 70k to 80k is really eye-catching, so what does my short at 119 mean?
Is it because my leverage is low, my position is small, too conservative, not enough thrill? #纳指跌4.18%创逾一年最大单日跌幅
Is it because my leverage is low, my position is small, too conservative, not enough thrill? #纳指跌4.18%创逾一年最大单日跌幅
I've previously written some lengthy pieces on risk management and trading experience, but they've all been taken down!
This references the last piece of that series; sometimes when I write a lot, I feel like I'm just rambling. #纳指跌4.18%创逾一年最大单日跌幅
This references the last piece of that series; sometimes when I write a lot, I feel like I'm just rambling. #纳指跌4.18%创逾一年最大单日跌幅
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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The Last Long Read: Investing and Trading, Respecting Cycles and Boundaries
In the investment and trading market, there are no permanent winners or losers! All gains and losses are phase-based results. To survive in the long run, you must understand the true market dynamics and recognize your own trading boundaries.
1: Every investor and trader's system has its own adaptability limits.
Every trading logic (scalping / swing, trend-following / counter-trend, fundamental / technical) has its suitable environment: strategies thrive in choppy markets, while single-direction trends can lead to consecutive losses; chasing trends for profit can result in repeated stop-losses during sideways phases. No one’s trading strategy can fully cover all market conditions, whether bull or bear, choppy or volatile. All strategies are only suitable for 'phase-based' market environments.
1: Every investor and trader's system has its own adaptability limits.
Every trading logic (scalping / swing, trend-following / counter-trend, fundamental / technical) has its suitable environment: strategies thrive in choppy markets, while single-direction trends can lead to consecutive losses; chasing trends for profit can result in repeated stop-losses during sideways phases. No one’s trading strategy can fully cover all market conditions, whether bull or bear, choppy or volatile. All strategies are only suitable for 'phase-based' market environments.
Verified
Hey, didn't that pinned post give a heads up about the risk event in June?
Since you're aware of the risk event, shouldn't you be prepping and setting your expectations?
I mean, if you got the date wrong, then you must've seen the post from yesterday too, right? Knowing there's non-farm data out, wouldn't it be smart to play it safe?
You could wait for the data release to jump in, but by then, if the bad news is out, it's pretty clear how the market's gonna react, right?
If all else fails, just sit it out and steer clear of that data.
On the technical side, didn't that post also signal the weekly retest of the 200-week moving average?
If you're clueless about how to use the 200-week MA and what it means, come on, there's no need for bean counters, deepseek, or ChatGPT for that—just ask around.
Toss your questions to AI; you'll get a more detailed and straightforward answer.
Since you're aware of the risk event, shouldn't you be prepping and setting your expectations?
I mean, if you got the date wrong, then you must've seen the post from yesterday too, right? Knowing there's non-farm data out, wouldn't it be smart to play it safe?
You could wait for the data release to jump in, but by then, if the bad news is out, it's pretty clear how the market's gonna react, right?
If all else fails, just sit it out and steer clear of that data.
On the technical side, didn't that post also signal the weekly retest of the 200-week moving average?
If you're clueless about how to use the 200-week MA and what it means, come on, there's no need for bean counters, deepseek, or ChatGPT for that—just ask around.
Toss your questions to AI; you'll get a more detailed and straightforward answer.
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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Bitcoin's weekly chart is testing the 200-week moving average for the second time. The MACD is hovering below the zero line and is turning down again. If we break the 200-week MA convincingly, we might be facing a deep bear market.
Macro trends dictate liquidity, which drives the technical charts. Although technical analysis is often lagging behind the macro outlook and it's tough to predict turning points in advance, when the macro cycles are unclear, the technicals become the only trading gauge for retail traders.
In larger timeframes, technical signals are highly reliable. The head and shoulders pattern identified earlier this year is still intact, and the downtrend has already been established.
$BTC is just human nature; most people are reluctant to believe it.
Recognizing trends is easy, but sticking to the rules is tough. I find myself caught in the same 'knowing is easy, doing is hard' dilemma. #比特币ETF溢价创两年新低
Macro trends dictate liquidity, which drives the technical charts. Although technical analysis is often lagging behind the macro outlook and it's tough to predict turning points in advance, when the macro cycles are unclear, the technicals become the only trading gauge for retail traders.
In larger timeframes, technical signals are highly reliable. The head and shoulders pattern identified earlier this year is still intact, and the downtrend has already been established.
$BTC is just human nature; most people are reluctant to believe it.
Recognizing trends is easy, but sticking to the rules is tough. I find myself caught in the same 'knowing is easy, doing is hard' dilemma. #比特币ETF溢价创两年新低
Once again, we've seen how heavy the aftermath of a market crash can be!
A unique human weakness in the investment and trading circles.
After taking a hit, people tend to think the whole world is to blame, that everyone else is at fault.
They never consider their own issues and are reluctant to do a post-mortem on their trades.
When they’re making bank, it’s all about their sharp insight and skills; when they’re losing, it’s the market, the whales, and the exchanges working together to harvest their funds.
Cognitive biases breed conspiracy theories!
Blaming external forces allows them to protect their self-image, avoiding the need to confront their own mistakes, keeping psychological costs low.
People will only actively believe answers that align with their emotions, and they won’t accept logic that contradicts their understanding.
They don’t even realize that no one asked them to enter the market, and nobody forced them to trade.
A unique human weakness in the investment and trading circles.
After taking a hit, people tend to think the whole world is to blame, that everyone else is at fault.
They never consider their own issues and are reluctant to do a post-mortem on their trades.
When they’re making bank, it’s all about their sharp insight and skills; when they’re losing, it’s the market, the whales, and the exchanges working together to harvest their funds.
Cognitive biases breed conspiracy theories!
Blaming external forces allows them to protect their self-image, avoiding the need to confront their own mistakes, keeping psychological costs low.
People will only actively believe answers that align with their emotions, and they won’t accept logic that contradicts their understanding.
They don’t even realize that no one asked them to enter the market, and nobody forced them to trade.
Verified
Some folks think this drop is due to macro factors, while others believe it's all about liquidation!
Actually, the two aren't mutually exclusive; the crux of the disagreement is the confusion between triggers, active sell-offs, and passive liquidations.
My take: Macro factors are the spark for the drop, dragging both the stock market and crypto space down together; as prices retreat, it triggers a chain reaction of liquidations, and the selling pressure continues to hammer down, leading to further weakness in the market, creating a negative feedback loop.
Catalyst: Changes in macro data/monetary policy → Major institutions actively reducing positions and selling.
Process (market accelerator): Prices drop → Leverage & derivatives face passive forced liquidations → Accelerated short-term crashes.
Without macro headwinds, the big players can't single-handedly tank the entire market across categories;
Without high leverage on the books, macro negatives usually just result in small corrections, making it hard to trigger a catastrophic collapse.
The tangled roots are just a deepening of understanding through review; in reality, obsessing over the reasons for ups and downs offers limited help for practical trading execution.
Actually, the two aren't mutually exclusive; the crux of the disagreement is the confusion between triggers, active sell-offs, and passive liquidations.
My take: Macro factors are the spark for the drop, dragging both the stock market and crypto space down together; as prices retreat, it triggers a chain reaction of liquidations, and the selling pressure continues to hammer down, leading to further weakness in the market, creating a negative feedback loop.
Catalyst: Changes in macro data/monetary policy → Major institutions actively reducing positions and selling.
Process (market accelerator): Prices drop → Leverage & derivatives face passive forced liquidations → Accelerated short-term crashes.
Without macro headwinds, the big players can't single-handedly tank the entire market across categories;
Without high leverage on the books, macro negatives usually just result in small corrections, making it hard to trigger a catastrophic collapse.
The tangled roots are just a deepening of understanding through review; in reality, obsessing over the reasons for ups and downs offers limited help for practical trading execution.
The viewpoint on 1550 for the month of $ETH 2 is almost here, the last time I mentioned 1550 was in the post from May 18!
I haven't shared much about ETH lately, as the pinned post discussed BTC's target 🎯.
I've been reminding everyone in the community about this range, but I can't recall where else I've mentioned it.
Since I brought it up, let's keep track: the 1550/1500 range is where you could start buying your first batch of spot. Make sure to hold some capital back for the next phase to add to your position; you can't just go all in right away. The macro risks are still present, and I've hinted at this in past long posts and some threads, though I doubt many saw them. Do your own digging.
This alert 🔔 is strictly for spot holders, ideally those looking to hold long-term; it's not suitable for contracts, and definitely not for those looking to use high leverage.
This opinion is for reference only, profit and loss are your own responsibility! #美国就业超预期比特币下跌 #ETH
I haven't shared much about ETH lately, as the pinned post discussed BTC's target 🎯.
I've been reminding everyone in the community about this range, but I can't recall where else I've mentioned it.
Since I brought it up, let's keep track: the 1550/1500 range is where you could start buying your first batch of spot. Make sure to hold some capital back for the next phase to add to your position; you can't just go all in right away. The macro risks are still present, and I've hinted at this in past long posts and some threads, though I doubt many saw them. Do your own digging.
This alert 🔔 is strictly for spot holders, ideally those looking to hold long-term; it's not suitable for contracts, and definitely not for those looking to use high leverage.
This opinion is for reference only, profit and loss are your own responsibility! #美国就业超预期比特币下跌 #ETH
绣虎_Tiger Charts
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Bearish$ETH Ethereum has dipped back down to around 2K USD today. It's time to reflect on those comments and news that fueled your confidence; maybe next time, you'll be better prepared to dodge this situation.
Keep your subjective judgment, respect the market, and follow your instincts! That’s the only line of defense to protect your capital and maintain rhythm.
The weekly structure is being tested again; the 1970/1930 range is a critical zone!
If this level fails to hold, we face triple risks from macro conditions, news, and structural breakdowns, making a drop to the 1550/1500 range not unreasonable.
1: A major structural breakdown is tough to fix,
2: As for macro conditions and news, there are currently no bullish signals to ease market risks.
My personal view is that the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel (i.e., 1970/1930) is hard to defend.
The viewpoint around 1550 is something I mentioned back in February; I can't find the post now, but it came up when a friend asked, so I checked!
The low in February was around 1730; I didn’t go in for the bottom then because I was unsure! If we get close to that psychological target again, I’ll be ready to enter.
My logic holds, but whether we hit the target smoothly remains uncertain, so consider it just for reference.
#ETH #以太坊现货ETF周净流出255M
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Keep your subjective judgment, respect the market, and follow your instincts! That’s the only line of defense to protect your capital and maintain rhythm.
The weekly structure is being tested again; the 1970/1930 range is a critical zone!
If this level fails to hold, we face triple risks from macro conditions, news, and structural breakdowns, making a drop to the 1550/1500 range not unreasonable.
1: A major structural breakdown is tough to fix,
2: As for macro conditions and news, there are currently no bullish signals to ease market risks.
My personal view is that the upper boundary of the weekly ascending channel (i.e., 1970/1930) is hard to defend.
The viewpoint around 1550 is something I mentioned back in February; I can't find the post now, but it came up when a friend asked, so I checked!
The low in February was around 1730; I didn’t go in for the bottom then because I was unsure! If we get close to that psychological target again, I’ll be ready to enter.
My logic holds, but whether we hit the target smoothly remains uncertain, so consider it just for reference.
#ETH #以太坊现货ETF周净流出255M
{future}(ETHUSDT)
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