💥Tonight at 8:30, some economic data will be released. Let's share briefly!
Blue box: friendly to us, red box: not very friendly to us.
Let's start with the red box!
1: The US January core PCE price index year-on-year expectation is 3.1%. Throughout February to November 2025, it hasn't broken 2.9%. The value published in December was only 3%! If this expectation is met, it will directly break the high point for the whole year of 2025, reaching a new high, and the stickiness of inflation will be confirmed, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
2: The US January JOLTS job openings (10,000 people) don’t need much explanation; it directly reflects the core indicator of the tightness of the employment market. The higher the number of vacancies, the tighter the labor market, the greater the pressure on wages to rise, and the harder it is to suppress inflation, leading to hawkish expectations.
3: The US March one-year inflation rate preliminary expectation data is really explosive! Throughout 2025, it has been declining, but this expectation is about to rebound. Rising inflation expectations = the market believes future prices will rise, making it necessary for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hard stance on interest rate anchoring expectations, which is bearish for risk assets.
Now let's talk about the blue box!
1: The US January personal spending month-on-month expectation is 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.4%. Meeting expectations is a good thing, and being lower than expectations is even better! The higher the month-on-month spending rate, the stronger the consumption, and the more resistant prices are, making it less favorable for interest rate cuts; conversely, a cooling in spending is what we want to see.
2: The US March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value and personal spending month-on-month rate follow the same logic, both reflecting consumption. The stronger the consumer confidence, the more everyone feels their income is stable and is willing to spend, which strengthens economic resilience, giving the Federal Reserve even less reason to cut interest rates; therefore, the lower this data is, the friendlier it is to us.
Lastly, let me say:
This content does not constitute investment advice! The data is multi-faceted, and while we can assess the general impact logic, the real effects are quite complex.
As a saying goes: society is simple, but people are complex. 😊
So we also need to look at the overall market interpretation of the data (i.e., economists, investment bank analysts, etc.); relying solely on the surface data cannot be our final trading decision!
All of today’s data is important, with no distinction between important and unimportant!
Although some data has a quick impact and some manifests slowly, they will all directly hit the critical point of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, thereby affecting our trading landscape.
#PCE #BTC #比特币升回7万