seasonality
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Crypto Founder Kills The January Effect For BTC
We need to recalibrate expectations for seasonal pumps. A major institutional player just dropped a bomb: The famed "January Effect" for $BTC might be over.
Historically, the start of the year sees peak capital inflow, driven by aggressive portfolio rebalancing and the resulting surge in spot ETF activity. That structural tailwind helped push $BTC to new highs in prior cycles, often creating the "January Magic" investors relied on.
But the game has changed. Heading into the next cycle, persistent macro volatility and unresolved market factors mean the early-year optimism may not translate into the explosive flows we saw before. We cannot rely on cyclical seasonality anymore. Performance will be purely a function of overall market sentiment, divorced from calendar dates. Caution is the prevailing mood, even when looking at assets with structural upside like $ZEC.This is not a prediction of doom, but an essential reminder that institutional flows are becoming less predictable and more responsive to global economics.
Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#Bitcoin #MacroAnalysis #ETFflow #CryptoOutlook #Seasonality
📊
We need to recalibrate expectations for seasonal pumps. A major institutional player just dropped a bomb: The famed "January Effect" for $BTC might be over.
Historically, the start of the year sees peak capital inflow, driven by aggressive portfolio rebalancing and the resulting surge in spot ETF activity. That structural tailwind helped push $BTC to new highs in prior cycles, often creating the "January Magic" investors relied on.
But the game has changed. Heading into the next cycle, persistent macro volatility and unresolved market factors mean the early-year optimism may not translate into the explosive flows we saw before. We cannot rely on cyclical seasonality anymore. Performance will be purely a function of overall market sentiment, divorced from calendar dates. Caution is the prevailing mood, even when looking at assets with structural upside like $ZEC.This is not a prediction of doom, but an essential reminder that institutional flows are becoming less predictable and more responsive to global economics.
Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#Bitcoin #MacroAnalysis #ETFflow #CryptoOutlook #Seasonality
📊
**📈 Bitcoin's November: A Volatile Historical Turning Point**
Bitcoin's historical performance in November reveals a clear pattern: it's a month of **extreme volatility** that often sets the tone for the year's end.
**Key Observations from the Data:**
- **Explosive Gains:** Historic rallies like **+453.9% (2013)** and **+42.9% (2020)** started or accelerated in November.
- **Sharp Declines:** Major corrections like **-36.4% (2018)** and **-17.4% (2022)** also unfolded during this month.
- **A Transitional Phase:** November frequently acts as a **pivot point**, especially when following a strong October. In many pre-halving cycles, late-year momentum has ignited here.
**Why This Matters Now:**
Historical volatility doesn’t guarantee future results, but it highlights **seasonal tendencies** worth incorporating into your risk management.
A strong October often fuels November continuation, while a weak November has, at times, set up December rebounds.
**Trading Takeaway:**
Prepare for potential volatility expansions. This isn't about predicting direction—it's about being positioned to respond, whether the move is up or down.
*Trade with awareness, not assumption. History is a guide, not a guarantee.*
#Bitcoin #BTC #Seasonality #Crypto #Volatility
$BTC
$CYBER
$MMT
Bitcoin's historical performance in November reveals a clear pattern: it's a month of **extreme volatility** that often sets the tone for the year's end.
**Key Observations from the Data:**
- **Explosive Gains:** Historic rallies like **+453.9% (2013)** and **+42.9% (2020)** started or accelerated in November.
- **Sharp Declines:** Major corrections like **-36.4% (2018)** and **-17.4% (2022)** also unfolded during this month.
- **A Transitional Phase:** November frequently acts as a **pivot point**, especially when following a strong October. In many pre-halving cycles, late-year momentum has ignited here.
**Why This Matters Now:**
Historical volatility doesn’t guarantee future results, but it highlights **seasonal tendencies** worth incorporating into your risk management.
A strong October often fuels November continuation, while a weak November has, at times, set up December rebounds.
**Trading Takeaway:**
Prepare for potential volatility expansions. This isn't about predicting direction—it's about being positioned to respond, whether the move is up or down.
*Trade with awareness, not assumption. History is a guide, not a guarantee.*
#Bitcoin #BTC #Seasonality #Crypto #Volatility
$BTC
$CYBER
$MMT
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⏱The cryptocurrency pattern contrary to seasonality in November worked negatively for Bitcoin at -17%, for the first time since 2022, while for Ethereum November turned out to be even worse at -22%.
🪙Now if we look at the seasonal statistics for December over the last five years, BTC closed positively only 25% of the time with an average return of -3.7%. If we look at the entire trading history, the probability of closing positively was 45%, with an average return of +8.2%.
🔷For Ethereum, December closed positively only 25% of the time with an average return of -5.8%. And seasonality since 2015 shows that in half of the cases the instrument closed positively with an average return of 7%.
💡What am I waiting for? At the moment, the crypto market has already collapsed more than the average deviation, STH are in losses and many have exited the market, retail investor sentiment through the fear & greed index is also at its lowest values.
Such on-chain and market sentiment often occurs before the instrument finds its bottom.
This year, due to constant interventions in the market, all seasonal statistics are not working, so with weak expectations for December, we may see the opposite result.
What do you think Bitcoin will show in terms of closing results in December?
👍 above 90K
👎 below 90K
#Seasonality #BTC #ETH
🪙Now if we look at the seasonal statistics for December over the last five years, BTC closed positively only 25% of the time with an average return of -3.7%. If we look at the entire trading history, the probability of closing positively was 45%, with an average return of +8.2%.
🔷For Ethereum, December closed positively only 25% of the time with an average return of -5.8%. And seasonality since 2015 shows that in half of the cases the instrument closed positively with an average return of 7%.
💡What am I waiting for? At the moment, the crypto market has already collapsed more than the average deviation, STH are in losses and many have exited the market, retail investor sentiment through the fear & greed index is also at its lowest values.
Such on-chain and market sentiment often occurs before the instrument finds its bottom.
This year, due to constant interventions in the market, all seasonal statistics are not working, so with weak expectations for December, we may see the opposite result.
What do you think Bitcoin will show in terms of closing results in December?
👍 above 90K
👎 below 90K
#Seasonality #BTC #ETH
The $BTC Blood Calendar Just Activated
The market is holding its breath as the calendar flips. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a deeply concerning trend: when November prints red, December often follows suit, extending the pain. This "Red November -> Red December" pattern is a ghost of cycles past, and every analyst is watching to see if this year finally breaks the spell.
The sheer gravitational pull of $BTC seasonality cannot be ignored. While institutional flow into assets like $ETH has shown resilience, the macro context dictates caution. We are at a critical inflection point. If the pattern holds, the year-end rally everyone hoped for will be postponed. If the pattern fails, it confirms a new maturity in the asset class, setting the stage for a dramatic Q1 push. Understand the historical context dictating the current resistance.
Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#CryptoCycles
#MarketAnalysis
#BTC
#Seasonality
#Macro
🥶
The market is holding its breath as the calendar flips. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a deeply concerning trend: when November prints red, December often follows suit, extending the pain. This "Red November -> Red December" pattern is a ghost of cycles past, and every analyst is watching to see if this year finally breaks the spell.
The sheer gravitational pull of $BTC seasonality cannot be ignored. While institutional flow into assets like $ETH has shown resilience, the macro context dictates caution. We are at a critical inflection point. If the pattern holds, the year-end rally everyone hoped for will be postponed. If the pattern fails, it confirms a new maturity in the asset class, setting the stage for a dramatic Q1 push. Understand the historical context dictating the current resistance.
Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#CryptoCycles
#MarketAnalysis
#BTC
#Seasonality
#Macro
🥶
The $BTC History Lesson You CANNOT Ignore
Zoom out! $BTC history screams opportunity. The biggest pumps always follow the worst crashes. Look at the data: November averages +41.19%! December adds another +4.75%. Volatility is noise; seasonality is structure. This is the window. Stop the short-term fear. Q4 to Q1 is Bitcoin’s prime time for expansion. ACT NOW.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Bullish #Seasonality #Crypto
🚀
Zoom out! $BTC history screams opportunity. The biggest pumps always follow the worst crashes. Look at the data: November averages +41.19%! December adds another +4.75%. Volatility is noise; seasonality is structure. This is the window. Stop the short-term fear. Q4 to Q1 is Bitcoin’s prime time for expansion. ACT NOW.
Disclaimer: Not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
#Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Bullish #Seasonality #Crypto
🚀
The Chart Secret They Don't Want You to Know
Forget the fear. $BTC is following the history books! Massive drawdowns ALWAYS precede explosive gains. Historically, November crushes the market, averaging +41.19%. The Q4 to Q1 window is structurally the best time to load up. Stop waiting for the dip—the setup is ready now. Don't miss this generational move!
Not financial advice. Trade smart.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BullRun #Seasonality #Trading
🔥
Forget the fear. $BTC is following the history books! Massive drawdowns ALWAYS precede explosive gains. Historically, November crushes the market, averaging +41.19%. The Q4 to Q1 window is structurally the best time to load up. Stop waiting for the dip—the setup is ready now. Don't miss this generational move!
Not financial advice. Trade smart.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BullRun #Seasonality #Trading
🔥
🔒 Bitcoin Remains Rangebound
BTC trading steady in the $110K–$113K zone as bulls pin hopes on Fed rate cuts and Q4 seasonals to spark momentum.
Analysts note that macro optimism is met with technical fragility — a breakout above resistance could flip sentiment fast.
Chart to watch: Break above ~$113.6K for upside, or risk deeper consolidation.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #Fed #Seasonality
BTC trading steady in the $110K–$113K zone as bulls pin hopes on Fed rate cuts and Q4 seasonals to spark momentum.
Analysts note that macro optimism is met with technical fragility — a breakout above resistance could flip sentiment fast.
Chart to watch: Break above ~$113.6K for upside, or risk deeper consolidation.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #Fed #Seasonality
See original
I will provide a deeper insight into seasonality or seasonal patterns in the cryptocurrency market, not just myths, but based on a data-driven approach and the fundamental factors that influence it.
Seasonality in the crypto market is more complex and driven by a combination of the following factors:
1. Investor Attention Cycles
2. Global Financial Cycles
3. Financial Institution Activity
4. Specific Crypto Events
5. Market Cycles
Based on historical data analysis (although there is no guarantee the future will be the same), here are the seasonal patterns based on data analysis:
* JUNE - AUGUST Period: This period is often referred to as the "summer slump" or flat season (sideways). Trading volume tends to decrease due to summer holidays in the northern hemisphere. However, this can also be a good time for smart money to ACCUMULATE ASSETS quietly.
#seasonality
#AccumulationSeason
#xrp
#xlm
#algorand
Seasonality in the crypto market is more complex and driven by a combination of the following factors:
1. Investor Attention Cycles
2. Global Financial Cycles
3. Financial Institution Activity
4. Specific Crypto Events
5. Market Cycles
Based on historical data analysis (although there is no guarantee the future will be the same), here are the seasonal patterns based on data analysis:
* JUNE - AUGUST Period: This period is often referred to as the "summer slump" or flat season (sideways). Trading volume tends to decrease due to summer holidays in the northern hemisphere. However, this can also be a good time for smart money to ACCUMULATE ASSETS quietly.
#seasonality
#AccumulationSeason
#xrp
#xlm
#algorand
TradingView Launches Seasonality Table View – A Fresh Way to Track Market Trends
TradingView has rolled out a new table view for its Seasonality tool, making historical analysis even more intuitive.
🔹 Tabular Format – Each row represents a year, each cell a monthly price change, with color coding (green = gain, red = loss).
🔹 Summary Row – Counts how many times a month closed positive vs. negative across years.
🔹 Customization – Choose timeframes, toggle between % or absolute values, and even add an average row.
💡 Why it matters: Traders can now spot recurring seasonal patterns faster, compare monthly performance across years, and refine their strategies with clearer insights.
This upgrade transforms seasonality from just charts into a powerful comparison grid—ideal for spotting hidden opportunities.
#tradingview #CryptoMarkets #Seasonality #MarketInsights
🔹 Tabular Format – Each row represents a year, each cell a monthly price change, with color coding (green = gain, red = loss).
🔹 Summary Row – Counts how many times a month closed positive vs. negative across years.
🔹 Customization – Choose timeframes, toggle between % or absolute values, and even add an average row.
💡 Why it matters: Traders can now spot recurring seasonal patterns faster, compare monthly performance across years, and refine their strategies with clearer insights.
This upgrade transforms seasonality from just charts into a powerful comparison grid—ideal for spotting hidden opportunities.
#tradingview #CryptoMarkets #Seasonality #MarketInsights
Seasonality of crypto assets in September.
Traditionally, the month continues the summer weakness of the market: corrections and finishing movements before the autumn rally.
📉For Bitcoin, this is one of the worst months — only 36% of closings are positive, with an average return of -4.8%.
📉The picture is even weaker for Ethereum: only 40% of closings are positive, and the average return is -11.1%.
#Seasonality $BTC $ETH
Traditionally, the month continues the summer weakness of the market: corrections and finishing movements before the autumn rally.
📉For Bitcoin, this is one of the worst months — only 36% of closings are positive, with an average return of -4.8%.
📉The picture is even weaker for Ethereum: only 40% of closings are positive, and the average return is -11.1%.
#Seasonality $BTC $ETH
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“Moonvember” is being mentioned again — but beware of misinterpreting the data!
Lark Davis calls November the strongest month for $BTC – averaging ~40% up.
But if you look closely at the CoinGlass heatmap: the median is only ~9% → most of the “beautiful” is due to an exceptional year (+449% in 2013) pulling the mean up.
→ Uptober / Moonvember is indeed a crypto autumn meme
→ Should only be seen as “historical context,” not a price target.
Real traders will wait for breakout – volume – market confirmation… not FOMO based on a meme.
This is not investment advice — I haven't even surpassed 3% of my portfolio this month, let alone 40%.
#Seasonality #Bitcoin #Moonvember #CryptoHistory #DataNotHopium
Lark Davis calls November the strongest month for $BTC – averaging ~40% up.
But if you look closely at the CoinGlass heatmap: the median is only ~9% → most of the “beautiful” is due to an exceptional year (+449% in 2013) pulling the mean up.
→ Uptober / Moonvember is indeed a crypto autumn meme
→ Should only be seen as “historical context,” not a price target.
Real traders will wait for breakout – volume – market confirmation… not FOMO based on a meme.
This is not investment advice — I haven't even surpassed 3% of my portfolio this month, let alone 40%.
#Seasonality #Bitcoin #Moonvember #CryptoHistory #DataNotHopium
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💡Tomorrow November begins, let's see what cryptocurrency has historically shown during this period.
🪙 For Bitcoin, the month closed in the positive 64% of the time if we take the entire period into account, with an average return of 9.4%.
If we look at the last 5 years, the result is worse with a 50% positive closure and a return of 5.7%.
🔹 For Ethereum, the month closed in the positive 50% of the time with an average result of 5.2%.
If we take the last 5 years, the picture is better with a positive closure of 75%, with a result of 10.8%.
October was very weak and we can expect that the correction in November will be completed and there are chances to see a market rebound.
What do you expect from November?
A positive closure 👍
Or a negative one 🔥
#Seasonality
🪙 For Bitcoin, the month closed in the positive 64% of the time if we take the entire period into account, with an average return of 9.4%.
If we look at the last 5 years, the result is worse with a 50% positive closure and a return of 5.7%.
🔹 For Ethereum, the month closed in the positive 50% of the time with an average result of 5.2%.
If we take the last 5 years, the picture is better with a positive closure of 75%, with a result of 10.8%.
October was very weak and we can expect that the correction in November will be completed and there are chances to see a market rebound.
What do you expect from November?
A positive closure 👍
Or a negative one 🔥
#Seasonality
Seasonal Trends Point to Bullish Q4 for BTC & ETH
Historical data suggests strong Q4 performance for Bitcoin and Ethereum. November often leads with average gains of ~46%.
#Seasonality #BTC #ETH #Binance
Historical data suggests strong Q4 performance for Bitcoin and Ethereum. November often leads with average gains of ~46%.
#Seasonality #BTC #ETH #Binance
Bitcoin Seasonality Chart Reveals: November is Crypto’s Power Month!
According to historical on-chain data:
➤ November consistently delivers top-tier returns
➤ BTC’s strongest monthly gains are often recorded here
➤ 2023 followed the pattern closely, and 2024 is already aligning
The seasonality edge is real. Are you positioned for what’s coming next?
📊 Chart by TradingView
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #Seasonality
According to historical on-chain data:
➤ November consistently delivers top-tier returns
➤ BTC’s strongest monthly gains are often recorded here
➤ 2023 followed the pattern closely, and 2024 is already aligning
The seasonality edge is real. Are you positioned for what’s coming next?
📊 Chart by TradingView
#Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #Seasonality
My Assets Distribution
USDT
FUN
Others
67.40%
16.21%
16.39%
November is Bitcoin's Month: Historical Data Reveals a Powerful Trend
As we enter a new month, historical data provides a compelling narrative for Bitcoin. While October ended with a 3.69% decline, breaking a 6-year green streak, November has historically been the strongest-performing month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 42.31%.
The chart below, based on Coinglass data from 2013 to the present, tells the story of a consistent seasonal pattern.
| Average November Return | +42.31% |
| Longest Green Streak | 5 consecutive years (2013-2017) |
| Average Q4 Performance | +78.4% |
📈 A Closer Look at the Seasonal Pattern
The data reveals two distinct phases for Bitcoin in November:
The Bullish Era (2013-2017): A perfect 5-year streak of positive returns in November, cementing its reputation as a strong month.The Mixed Phase (2018-Present): Increased volatility, with only 3 out of the last several years closing in the green (2020, 2023, 2024). This shows that while the trend is positive, it's not a guarantee.
Despite a rocky start to Q4 2025, where $BTC is down ~5.85%, history suggests this quarter often sees the most powerful rallies of the year.
💡 Context for the Current Market
The recent market pressure has persisted into early November, even amid a supportive macro event—the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) cut interest rates by 0.25%, aligning with market expectations.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a significant probability of another rate cut in December. This macro backdrop, combined with Bitcoin's strong historical performance in November, creates a fascinating setup for traders.
🎯 A Trader's Perspective
For traders watching the charts, this historical context is a key piece of the puzzle, not a crystal ball.
Watch for a Trend Reversal: After the October dip and break of its multi-year streak, see if $BTC can find strong support and capitalize on its seasonal tailwinds.Q4 is the Star Performer: Remember that the entire fourth quarter has an average return of over 78%. A weak start does not necessarily predict a weak finish.Manage Risk, Not Hype: Use this data to inform your strategy, but always pair it with solid technical analysis and strict risk management.
Final Thought: While past performance never guarantees future results, recognizing strong seasonal trends can provide a significant edge. November is historically a time for Bitcoin to shine.
As always, this is not financial advice. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.
#bitcoin #BTC☀ #crypt #trading #Seasonality
📈 Crypto Market Seasonality in October
Historically, October is one of the strongest months for crypto assets.
🪙Bitcoin:
82% of the month closed higher.
The average October return was +19.5%.
🔷 Ethereum:
70% of the month closed positive.
The average October return was +9.9%.
Thus, October traditionally kicks off the autumn rally and is considered a bullish month for both BTC and ETH. Past seasonality does not guarantee a repeat in the future, but it increases the chances. #Seasonality
Historically, October is one of the strongest months for crypto assets.
🪙Bitcoin:
82% of the month closed higher.
The average October return was +19.5%.
🔷 Ethereum:
70% of the month closed positive.
The average October return was +9.9%.
Thus, October traditionally kicks off the autumn rally and is considered a bullish month for both BTC and ETH. Past seasonality does not guarantee a repeat in the future, but it increases the chances. #Seasonality
August is traditionally a weak month for the cryptocurrency market.
📉 Only in 27% of cases did BTC end August in positive territory (average return –1.4%).
📉 ETH has grown in only 30% of years (average return –0.4%)
Historical seasonality does not guarantee a repeat, but it does indicate increased risks of correction in August. Pay attention to key support levels.
#seasonality $BTC $ETH
📉 Only in 27% of cases did BTC end August in positive territory (average return –1.4%).
📉 ETH has grown in only 30% of years (average return –0.4%)
Historical seasonality does not guarantee a repeat, but it does indicate increased risks of correction in August. Pay attention to key support levels.
#seasonality $BTC $ETH
In 100% of Septembers in the last four years XRP has positive change (no guarantee how positive though)
$XRP #Binance #Seasonality
$XRP #Binance #Seasonality
$SUI – Historical Q4 Strength 🚀
$SUI has a strong seasonal track record, with average returns of +56.9% in November and +23.1% in December. 📊🔥
With history on its side, $SUI could be gearing up for a powerful year-end rally if momentum aligns. 📈
#SUI #Crypto #Altcoins #Seasonality #WriteToEarn
$SUI has a strong seasonal track record, with average returns of +56.9% in November and +23.1% in December. 📊🔥
With history on its side, $SUI could be gearing up for a powerful year-end rally if momentum aligns. 📈
#SUI #Crypto #Altcoins #Seasonality #WriteToEarn
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