Kirill Gaitan l Trading

✅Last week I missed the post about the DCA portfolio, and this week I am consolidating transactions for 2 weeks; in principle, prices have not changed and are at the same level.

🪙Bitcoin continues to trade sideways in the range of 85-95K.

🔷Ethereum is trading around 3000.

🔍 The support for BTC prices is the April low zone of 75-85K.

And for ETH - 2500-2600.

⛓️ The demand from ETF funds has not recovered and is at zero due to reduced liquidity, which is partly related to the increase in the key interest rate of the Bank of Japan, which in turn led to the closure of carry trades.

🌐But there are many positive moments in the market that are not yet reflected in the price.

💡The restructuring of the probability of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December gives hope for a recovery in risk-on in the market. This will also be supported by the end of the QT cycle and the beginning of the reduction of the TGA balance.

In the current situation, the market needs a trigger to restore demand.

📊 Onchain metrics are still in bullish territory.
💰 I am buying more Bitcoin and Ethereum for 140$ over 2 weeks as part of the DCA portfolio. #BTC @Ethereum

Core PCE came in at 2.8. The indicator is important for assessing the chances of a rate cut in December — the market is currently pricing in about 90 percent, and probabilities have not reacted at all.
Indexes initially rose, then pulled back, and are now trying to buy back. Bitcoin fell significantly harder.

A positive moment is that the options structure has shifted towards calls after a recent rebound, indicating investors' bets on the rise of Bitcoin.

It is important to consider the factor of the end of the week; the price drop may be partially related to this.

I remind you that over the weekends, cryptocurrencies have been showing very weak performance lately. #BTC $BTC

As I mentioned yesterday, the $3250 zone is unlikely to be broken on the first try. However, the price is being pushed and the overall market sentiment suggests an increased chance of going higher; I would assign a probability of 70%. For now, I don't see much sense in buying into resistance, or waiting for a test of support in the 3000-3100 zone, or after a breakout.

$ETH @Ethereum #ETH

BAT slowed down under zone 0.3. The movement does not seem to be finished, I am waiting for continuation into zone 0.36-0.44.

Cancellation of zone 0.2 which should not be hit. #BAT $BAT

🔷Ethereum looks weaker than Bitcoin, I would watch the level of 3250 where a bunch of orders stands in the book.
In a downward trend, there might be a false breakout in this zone. Following Bitcoin, of course, they will pull up, but there is no particular demand, agree that in the speculative futures market based on open interest, not in ETFs by net flow. We can talk about a reversal of the downward trend with a confident breakout of the 3250 zone, but for now, it looks like a correction.
What do you think the next price of Ethereum will be?
👍3600
👎2500
#ETH $ETH @Ethereum

Quick result.

The pattern logic has played out, further growth is in question. Zone 92-93 is strong resistance.

#BTC $BTC

🪙Bitcoin has formed an H&S formation, a breakout of the 87.5 zone may send the quote to the 90K area. $BTC #BTC

Going against the market. Watch for a breakout at $40.
#COMP $COMP

@Compound Labs

Last week saw the largest Bitcoin withdrawal from centralized exchanges in history, with a total of 537K coins moved from exchange balances, which is approximately 46 billion at the current rate. If this is not a technical transfer within exchange wallets, then someone has taken a very large position. #BTC #Onchain

⏱The cryptocurrency pattern contrary to seasonality in November worked negatively for Bitcoin at -17%, for the first time since 2022, while for Ethereum November turned out to be even worse at -22%.

🪙Now if we look at the seasonal statistics for December over the last five years, BTC closed positively only 25% of the time with an average return of -3.7%. If we look at the entire trading history, the probability of closing positively was 45%, with an average return of +8.2%.

🔷For Ethereum, December closed positively only 25% of the time with an average return of -5.8%. And seasonality since 2015 shows that in half of the cases the instrument closed positively with an average return of 7%.

💡What am I waiting for? At the moment, the crypto market has already collapsed more than the average deviation, STH are in losses and many have exited the market, retail investor sentiment through the fear & greed index is also at its lowest values.

Such on-chain and market sentiment often occurs before the instrument finds its bottom.

This year, due to constant interventions in the market, all seasonal statistics are not working, so with weak expectations for December, we may see the opposite result.

What do you think Bitcoin will show in terms of closing results in December?
👍 above 90K

👎 below 90K

#Seasonality #BTC #ETH

On BAT, I recorded my initial position, took about 1.5R. But I think it will go higher.

#BAT $BAT

Not the most bullish formation is forming for Bitcoin. We have consumed all the momentum that developed today. There is a resistance at 93K. And a more or less significant support at 88K. Therefore, I will leave a limit order at 88.1. The development of the sideways movement in this range looks realistic.

#BTC $BTC