tarrifspause

According to BlockBeats, the U.S. White House has announced that tariff levels will be reduced to a uniform 10% during ongoing negotiations. This decision is part of the discussions aimed at addressing trade issues. The move is expected to facilitate smoother trade relations and negotiations.

BACKGROUND - WHY 100% TARIFFS WERE ON THE TABLE:
At the beginning of 2025, the U.S.-China trade war was renewing its flames. Beijing put stricter export restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets. Rare earths One of the most important metals is known as a group of 17 minerals which are used in all types of things such as smartphones and electric cars right down to precision-guided missiles. They are essential to the high tech production and China controls both mining and the refining industry. President Donald responded with threats to impose 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese imports beginning 1 November 2025. The danger was an existing truce which had already reduced tariffs to approximately 55 in the United States and 10 percent in China.
The U.S. had claimed that a big tariff threat would put Washington in a position to influence China to lift its export restrictions. Washington also gave an implication of new exportation of U.S. software and technology. Beijing responded that it was necessary to tighten the measures to ensure national security. It further charged the United States with its undermining of the rules based trading system.
IN PERSON CONVERSATIONS AND A FRAMEWORK OF “VERY SUBSTANTIAL” STRUCTURE :
In May 2025, diplomatic activities were again in progress. At the end of October Treasury Secretary Scott″Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson ″Greer had met Vice Premier He ″Lifeng five times. The conferences were held in four cities in Europe and in Kuala ․ Lumpur, Malaysia. The fifth gathering was done between 25 0 to 26 October in Kuala Lumpur and was aimed at saving the brewing tariff war and China exporting rare-earths controls.
Bessent then revealed to NBC in its Meet the Press that the two parties were coming to a very substantial framework after the negotiations were concluded. The structure would enable Presidents Trump and Xi to negotiate trade collaboration during the next summit. It would suspend the export controls of rare-earths in China and avoid the 100 percent tariffs. In a different interview, Bessent opined that he was not expecting Washington to go through on the tariff. He termed the threat as off the table. Bessent attributed the threat with giving bargaining room to negotiators but noted that any final terms on the deal would be arrived at by the two leaders.
ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL RESPONSES:
The chances of not multiplying the tariff countlessly relieved the financial markets. According to analysts who reported to Reuters, both parties were most probably to make tactical moves to continue with the pause and avoid the tariffs that were 100 per cent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala asked the two governments to de-escalate. She cautioned that the two biggest economies of the world had a chance of losing up to 7% of all the output around the world in case they were decoupled.
The agricultural sector on the American side had also been affected by banning Chinese imports. Bessent had hinted that the structure would be characterized by massive Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans and other farm produce. Washington was also seeking cooperation in fentanyl where Beijing could cooperate in curbing precursor chemicals used in the opioid manufacturing. The negotiations coincided with those to sell the Chinese short-video app Tik Tok to the U.S. investors.
THE REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD CARE ABOUT RARE-EARTH MINERALS :
The modern technologies need rare earths which are difficult to substitute. Between 2020 and 2023, approximately 70 percent of U.S. imports of rare-earths came out of China. Malaysia provided 13 percent, Japan 6 percent and Estonia 5 percent. It is also a leading source of the refined rare earths in the world, approximately 90 percent of refined rare earths of the world are produced in China, providing the country with massive control on downstream production. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the United States imported 72 percent of its compounds and metals of rare-earths between 2019 and 2022 by China.
The dominance of China is based on huge reserves and processing capacity in terms of minerals. In 2023, the nation produced approximately 240000 tons of rare-earth-oxide (REO) equivalent. That is larger than the 43000 tons of the United States and the 38000 tons of Burma (Myanmar). 2023 summary of mine production by major producers is shown in the table below.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, in 2023, China had the largest production of rare-earths producing about 240,000 tons of the equivalent of REO in total, but had surpassed the total production of other countries. United States follows at a very far distance of nearly 43000tons and Burma (Myanmar) at almost 38000tons. Australia donated about 18000 tons and Thailand followed closely with a rounded 7000 tons. These numbers highlight how China has remained in the lead and the humble performance of other manufacturers.
The reason why China can easily counter any U.S. trade policies is that it has the power to control the amount of rare earths it exports and rationally, this only takes a short time before controls are tightened. The 100% tariff threat was a hope that Washington had that leverage would decrease, but the Kuala Lumpur framework has so far avoided the risk of a retaliatory action spiral.
THE DEPENDENCE OF THE UNITED STATES ON THE CHINESE RARE EARTHS VISUALLIZATION:

The pie chart below shows the proportion of U.S. imports of rare-earth by country during 2020 to 2023. The statistics are provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and generalized by Visual Capitalist. The graph indicates that they have high dependence on China and little reliance in substitute suppliers.
The bar chart below compares China the most dominant with the top producers estimated to be approximately 2023 mine production of REO equivalent. The production of China out-powers that of the United States, Burma (Myanmar) and other states.

A bar chart with the production of the rare earth mines as of 2023 per country is shown using China at 240k tons, US at 43k tons, Myanmar at 38k tons, Australia at 18k tons and Thailand at 7.1k tons.
A NEW SUSPENSE, NOT A NEW DEAL:
The Kuala Lumpur agreement reduced direct confrontations but is merely a provisional structure, rather than an all round solution. Bessent indicated that the Progressive Presidents Trump and Xi will make final decisions about tariffs and export controls. Analysts observe that the structural misalignments that exist in the state-based economy in China and the pressure in the U.S. to have a more balanced trade are yet to be solved. The two governments each have their own domestic pressures: U.S. actions are labeled by Chinese authorities as a severe distortion of truth, and the U.S. political and business elites are concerned about the possibility of traditional Chinese supply chains and the security of intellectual property.
The next Trump-Xi meeting will be imperative. An effective gathering might transform the Kuala Lumpur structure into a larger deal that includes rare-earths, agricultural trade, fentanyl cooperation and even the sale of Tik Tok. The inability to agree would easily bring tariff threats, and it would also put the global supply chains to a new position of uncertainty.
Conclusion
The threat of 100% tariffs on goods made by the Chinese by the U.S. is the cherry on the cake in a years-old trade war. It demonstrated the strategic value of rare-earth minerals and disclosed the dangers of highly concentrated chains of supply. In intensive diplomacy at Kuala lumpur, both parties appear to have backed off as they agreed on a framework through which the 100 per cent tariff threat is virtually off the table. It remains a pause waiting the next explosion between Presidents Trump and Xi and the readiness of the two nations to deal with the issues of economy and security that lie deep in their souls.
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$BTC
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1. Look for a LTF break in market structure to the downside.
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If we don't reject here and break down, looking for a push to 86k at the minimum.

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