btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains on a short-term rebound, as mentioned before, a standard counter-trend/ dead cat bounce during Bear Cycles.
Here you see the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB), an indicator we've used countless times to determine tops, bottoms and general trends of a Cycle. This time we plot this simple yet powerful tool to make an early estimate on the potential bottom of this Bear Cycle.
We will keep this short as there is no reason to overcomplicate things, especially at this stage. BTC is as we said on a small rebound currently after almost testing the 2SD below (blue trend-line) of the MMB. On all previous Bear Cycles show on this chart, every time this happened, the market bounced and consolidated then.
When the 2SD below trend-line broke, the market reached the 3SD below (green trend-line) rather aggressively and quickly. In all instances, that was the Bear Cycle bottom, with the only exception being the 2022 Bear Cycle, which gave one last short-term rebound/ consolidation and bottomed when it broke below the 1W MA300 (red trend-line).
The 1W MA300 has historically had a hidden but key role on BTC Cycles. When tested, always after the initial MMB bottom, it provided a 2nd and final opportunity to enter (buy) the new Bull Cycle at such a low price.
It is possible to see something like that happen again. With its course (1W MA300), assuming the current Bear Cycle also lasts for around 52 weeks (364 days) like the previous two, we estimate it to be a little under $60000 by October 2026. The MMB 3SD below though could be by that time around $40000. It is possible of course that we breach the 1W MA300 (much) earlier thus at a lower price, meaning also potentially hitting the MMB bottom a little higher.
In any case the bottom range seems roughly by $60k - $40k. Since determining the Cycles (hence Tops - exits, Lows - entries) has always been more about timing and less about pricing, this is why we've discussed before that it would be a good idea to start buying (call it DCA if it suits you better) around $60k. As always, however, these are just the facts. The decision is yours.
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What happens if Bitcoin starts trading above $100,000 in just a matter of days? How will that affect your mood and the market? What about the correction? It would become meaningless once the market is bullish again... Patience is key of course.

We are getting very close to the 4th of December Super Full Moon, this time in Gemini... And Bitcoin has been rising since 21-November so we know this to be a bullish event. How far up can prices go? How much bullish action can we expect? Will Bitcoin rise for 30 days, 60 days or 90 days?

We can look at this in two ways in comparison to the previous cycle: If the top is not in, one last wave can last 175 days, based on the previous cycle. If the top is already in, a relief rally can last 1-3 months. Last time it lasted 63 days, between January and March 2022.

We are going to assume that the top is already in just for the sake of simplicity, to stay in line with the four years cycle and not to ignore the long-term signals coming from the monthly timeframe chart (the MACD and such). In this case, 2 months of relief would be appropriate. So this would be until February 2026. Other indicators are also pointing to this date.

This is just a map to navigate the market. The map needs to be adapted to what actually happens. Two months is just an estimation. Bullish action can happen for 75 days, 80 days or more, just as it can be 40 days or 21 days. It is more likely that we get at least 2-3 months but there can be more.

When Bitcoin's next correction comes it will be different to the first one. We will see the BTC pairs grow really strong—I am talking altcoins. Very likely also the USDT trading pairs. Why? Because people know. The people that are in this market know and they are very smart. We all have experience and everybody already saw what happened with the first correction. On the second correction, the C wave of the bearish cycle, all funds will run from Bitcoin to the altcoins. As Bitcoin produces its retrace the altcoins market will have its biggest run in years.

At first, Bitcoin's crash will result in marketwide bearish action. After a few days, the altcoins will settle, recover and then continue to grow while Bitcoin continues to move lower. It will be a highly mixed situation but we have time to plan, prepare and adapt. We have time... Be smart. Choose wisely.

Thank you again. Thank you for reading, thank you for coming, thank you for being around... Your support is highly appreciated.

We are going up long-term (altcoins). Bitcoin will do whatever it has to do but we are still on a long-term growth process. A bear market is nothing more than a long-term correction and the first part is already over.

Namaste.

✅ Trade here on $BTC