GEMINI

The amount of circulating supply currently in loss is increasing again, signaling that more investors are holding their assets below their purchase price. This often reflects growing pressure in the market and a shift toward more cautious sentiment among participants. When we compare this situation with past market cycles, similar patterns have usually appeared during the early stages of a bearish period rather than at the final market bottom.

That means the market could still be in the process of adjusting before reaching a true recovery phase. As the share of supply in loss grows, uncertainty and volatility often rise as well. Some investors may begin to exit their positions, while others take a step back to observe the market more carefully. At the same time, these conditions can slowly set the stage for the market to stabilize and rebuild strength over time.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Some altcoins are beginning to show signs of recovery even though the overall crypto market is still facing uncertainty. The Total3 index, which tracks the market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum, is currently ranging between $640B and $740B and has gained about 11% since early February. #XRP is currently showing a few encouraging signals.

Withdrawals from #Binance have recently spiked, including more than 14,000 transactions on March 6, which could indicate that some investors are accumulating XRP and moving it to private wallets instead of leaving it on exchanges. At the same time, interest in #XRP ETFs continues to grow, with total inflows already exceeding $1.4B. Reports also say that Goldman Sachs holds over 83 million XRP, showing that institutional interest in the asset is gradually increasing. If this trend continues, XRP could attract more liquidity within the altcoin market...

Market losses are starting to ease after the recent capitulation. #Bitcoin is still seeing more realized losses than profits, with about $611M in losses compared to $346M in profits, leaving the weekly net PnL around -$264M. This is an improvement compared to early February when weekly losses were close to $2B as #BTC fell below $60K.

Short Term Holders remain the most active participants and now control about 22% of the Bitcoin supply, up from 12% in January 2023. If the net PnL turns positive again, it could be a strong sign that the market is recovering after several months of losses.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Rising global tensions, particularly between #Iran and the #united States, are creating uncertainty in financial markets and making investors more cautious about taking risks. As a result, traders are reducing their use of leverage. #Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance has fallen from 0.198 to 0.152 since February, while the price of Bitcoin dropped from about $96,000 to $69,000 during the same period.

Many leveraged positions were closed or liquidated, leading to a decline in Open Interest. This decrease in leverage can help the market become more stable and form a healthier base before the next major price movement.

Around 20 million #Bitcoin have now been mined. Reaching this point took 6,267 days. The remaining 1 million coins will be released slowly over the next 114 years.

Here’s a look at how long it took for Bitcoin to reach its earlier on chain supply milestones on the way to 20 million 👇

#Bitcoin has often approached the end of its cycle during periods when oil prices are strengthening 👀

Short term holders are still selling #Bitcoin at a loss, even as the market bounces. For 7 of the last 8 days they’ve remained below breakeven.
With a cost basis near $89K and price around $67K, the 24% gap is pushing many to exit during rallies.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin is currently in the middle phase of the market cycle, with the NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite sitting around 0.33. In previous cycles, major market bottoms usually formed when this indicator dropped close to -0.5.

The chart also suggests that cycle lows are gradually shifting higher over time, which indicates that market capitulation may be becoming less severe as Bitcoin matures. However, since the indicator is still well above the historical bottom zone, a full market capitulation has not been confirmed yet.

The $75K level stands out because around $2.1B in negative gamma is concentrated there, with nearly $1.8B linked to the March options expiry. In periods of negative gamma, dealer hedging can intensify market moves and often drives price action toward large option strikes, which could make $75K behave like a magnetic level for the spot price.

Within 24 hours, around 31,900 #BTC worth about $3B left exchanges.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Profit taking activity from short term #Bitcoin holders has increased as the market rebounds. Over the past 24 hours, more than 27,000 BTC have been transferred to exchanges while in profit, marking one of the highest levels of such activity in recent months. Many short term investors are choosing to secure gains following the recent price recovery.

Large inflows of profitable #BTC to exchanges often indicate that holders may be preparing to sell, which can create additional selling pressure in the market. While this may slow the pace of further upside in the near term, profit taking during a recovery phase is a common pattern as traders capitalize on recent gains.

Despite #Bitcoin’s slight recovery, Short Term Holders still don’t seem confident in the market and are choosing to take profits quickly. Over the past 24 hours, more than 27,000 BTC in profit has been sent to exchanges by STHs, which is one of the highest levels seen in recent months. Currently, the only STHs able to realize profits are those who bought Bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with an average realized price of around $68,000.

Short Term Holders are usually very reactive and often influenced by short term news and market sentiment. With the current macroeconomic outlook still looking somewhat negative in the short term, many of them prefer to secure profits rather than hold their positions longer, creating some selling pressure in the market right now

Even with the recent rally, #Bitcoin is still trading within a bear market. The Bull Score Index currently stands at only 10 out of 100, keeping the overall outlook strongly bearish. The latest price increase is likely just a temporary relief bounce, not the beginning of a new bull cycle.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

#Bitcoin Spot ETF flows are starting to stabilize after a period of continuous outflows, with the 14 day netflow trend turning positive and suggesting that selling pressure is beginning to ease. As #BTC moves back above the $70K level, market sentiment is gradually improving. Institutional demand is still cautious, but early signs of re-accumulation are starting to appear, which could help support better price stability if inflows continue.

After adding $4.24B today, #Bitcoin open interest has climbed 18%, the biggest daily gain in a long time.