#cpiwatch U.S. CPI Watch (Dec 2025): Inflation is cooling but still sticky — annual CPI sits near 2.9%, with monthly prints showing modest increases across food and housing while energy remains volatile U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Inflation Calculator U.S. Inflation Calculator.
📊 CPI Watch Breakdown (2025 Data)
🔹 Latest Numbers
December 2025 CPI (All Items): ~323.976 index points U.S. Inflation Calculator
Annual Inflation Rate: 2.92% U.S. Inflation Calculator
Monthly Inflation Rate (Nov → Dec): ~0.3% CPI Inflation Calculator
Year-to-Date Average (2025): 2.69% CPI Inflation Calculator
🔹 Category Trends
Food: Still rising, contributing to headline CPI stability U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Energy: Volatile swings, keeping monthly prints uneven U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Shelter/Housing: Persistent upward pressure, a key driver of core CPI U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Core CPI (ex-food & energy): Running slightly above headline, showing sticky inflation in services U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
📌 Snapshot Table
Month 2025CPI IndexMonthly %Annual %
Jan317.6710.53.0
Jun322.5610.32.7
Sep324.8000.33.0
Dec323.9760.32.92
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Inflation Calculator U.S. Inflation Calculator
🔑 Key Takeaways
Inflation is easing compared to 2023–24 highs, but not fully tamed.
Shelter costs remain the biggest drag, keeping core CPI elevated.
Energy volatility makes monthly prints unpredictable, masking underlying trends.
Fed implications: With CPI near 3%, the Fed may hold rates steady into early 2026, balancing cooling inflation with recession risks.
⚠️ Risks & Watchpoints
Sticky Services Inflation: Healthcare, housing, and insurance costs could keep CPI above target.
Global Shocks: Oil price swings or geopolitical tensions could reignite headline inflation.
Policy Sensitivity: Any Fed pivot will hinge on whether CPI continues trending below 3%.
Bottom line: CPI Watch shows a gradual cooling trend in U.S. inflation, but housing and services keep core sticky.