US HOURLY WAGE ESTIMATES: DIFFERENT EXPECTATIONS AMONG ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTIES
The US average hourly wage increase in July is closely followed by economists and financial institutions. According to the Reuters survey, this indicator, whose previous increase rate was 0.3%, is expected to increase by 0.3% in July. However, estimates from different institutions go beyond this expectation.
Estimates of Different Institutions:
Those Expecting a 0.2% Increase:
• Kaitou Macro
• Citigroup
• Moody’s Analytics
• Morgan Stanley
• Nomura Securities
• Rumen Macro
• Danish bank
These institutions draw attention to the slowdown in the US economy and predict that the rate of wage growth may decrease. Particularly the stagnation in the labor market and the slowdown in employment growth support these predictions.
Those Expecting a 0.3% Increase:
• ING Bank
• Berenberg
• Decabank
• Barclays Bank
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch
• Deutsche Bank
• Goldman Sachs
• Lloyds Bank
• UBS Group
• Yuexin Bank
• Wealth Bank
• Montreal Bank
• HSBC Holdings
• Mizuho Securities
• Standard Chartered Bank
• Nordea Bank
• Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Banks in this group believe that wage increases continue due to improvements in the economy and continuing inflationary pressures. The high demand for labor and the willingness of employers to pay more for qualified labor are among the factors that support this view.
Those Expecting a 0.4% Increase:
• BNP Paribas
• JPMorgan Chase
• Julius Baer Group
• Morgan Stanley
This forecast indicates that there are strong signs of recovery in the economy and that the labor market may recover faster than expected. Increases in demand, especially in the service sector, and low unemployment rates strengthen this prediction.
Economic Uncertainties and Expectations
These different forecasts underscore the uncertainties in the US economy. In particular, inflationary pressures, fluctuations in interest rates and global economic uncertainties shape expectations for wage increases.
Conclusion: July's wage growth rate could directly affect the health of the US economy and future monetary policy decisions. Low wage increases may indicate that the economic growth rate is slowing down, while high increases may increase inflationary pressures. In this context, it is of great importance to closely monitor wage increases.
