#交易故事 #本周高光时刻
This week's most successful trade: Precisely targeting BTC breaking through $99,000
This week, Bitcoin (BTC) strongly attacked the $100,000 mark, and I successfully entered at $98,500 and took profit at $99,800, resulting in a profit of $1,300 and a return of 5.2%. Although it seems like a small margin, the key lies in the low-risk, high-win-rate trading logic.
1. Trading background and entry logic
- Technical breakthrough: BTC stabilized at $98,000 on May 7, forming an ascending triangle pattern, and the RSI (4H) remained above 60, not overbought.
- Institutional capital inflow: US Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $142 million in a single day, with ARKB and FBTC leading, showing that institutions are still increasing their positions.
- Market sentiment: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, and the market digested expectations of rate cuts, with risk aversion rising due to the India-Pakistan conflict.
2. Trade execution
- Entry point: In the early hours of May 8, when BTC broke through $98,500, I went long with 5x leverage, setting my stop loss at $97,000 (below key support).
- Position management: When the price reached $99,500, I reduced my position by 50%, setting a trailing stop for the remaining position.
- Profit-taking point: When BTC briefly touched $99,800 but failed to hold, I closed my position entirely to avoid potential pullback risks.
3. Key decision factors
- On-chain data: Glassnode shows that long-term holders (LTH) did not sell off significantly, supporting the bullish outlook.
- Options market signals: A surge in open interest for options with a strike price of $100,000 indicates market expectations for a breakout.
- Liquidity observation: Binance's order book showed a large number of sell orders between $99,500 and $100,000, thus I chose to take profits early.
4. Experience summary
- Avoid greed: Take partial profits before key resistance levels (such as $100,000) to prevent FOMO-induced pullbacks.
- Combine macro + technical: Pure technical trading can be easily impacted by unexpected events (like regulatory news), so attention should be paid to ETF capital flows and Federal Reserve policies.
- Strict risk control: 5x leverage is sufficient in trend trading to avoid the risk of liquidation from high leverage.
This trade, while not extremely profitable, excels in high certainty + low drawdown, perfectly aligning with this week's market rhythm. Moving forward, if BTC stabilizes above $100,000, I will wait for a pullback confirmation before planning a new round of long positions.
