Analysis of the Stage Characteristics of the Current Bull Market Cycle
The current bull market cycle in the crypto space can be described as a prolonged psychological tug-of-war, with BTC's "lone charge" being the most prominent feature. The market exhibits a highly fragmented operational rhythm:
Phase One (Initiation Period)
BTC is the first to break through historical highs, with some leading coins synchronously refreshing records, creating a strong atmosphere of market-wide gains, and most coins showing significant increases, with funds rapidly concentrating on leading assets.
Phase Two (Pullback Differentiation Period)
BTC has experienced a 20% technical pullback, while other coins' pullback amplitudes have expanded to 50%, with the market shifting from widespread gains to structural differentiation, revealing high volatility of non-BTC assets.
Phase Three (Oscillatory Divergence Period)
BTC once again challenges historical highs, but most coins are in an awkward situation of "weak following", with only a few varieties showing symbolic increases, and market funds further concentrating on BTC.
Phase Four (Deep Adjustment Period)
BTC's pullback has expanded to 30%, while non-mainstream coins have encountered a "halving-style" crash, with over 60% of coins reaching new lows in pullback amplitude, spreading panic in the market.
Phase Five (Bottoming Divergence Period)
BTC is gradually approaching previous highs, while the prices of most coins have halved compared to historical highs, forming an extreme divergence pattern of "BTC repeatedly hitting new highs vs. other coins repeatedly hitting new lows".
The Prisoner's Dilemma of Asset Allocation
The Certainty Advantage of BTC Holders
Investors holding BTC have experienced a sense of "carefree certainty" in this cycle: If one had allocated all funds to BTC a year ago, the current returns would be at least 5 times. This "single-coin supremacy" trend has made the strategy of "only buying BTC" a consensus among many investors.
The Game Logic of Mainstream Coins: Although BTC is currently performing strongly, historical data shows that mainstream coins have repeatedly outperformed BTC in past cycles.
The core of market controversy lies in:
Mismatch of Time Nodes: The explosive period for mainstream coins has not yet arrived, and the current phase may be a "value pit" in the mid-cycle.
Reconstructing Risk-Reward Ratio: Some mainstream coins have cumulative declines nearing historical extremes (e.g., ETH dropping to January 2018 peak levels). From a rebound logic perspective, their potential return space may outperform BTC, which is already at a high.
Case Reference: Recently, ETH experienced a phase of explosive growth. Although its price has not yet recovered to historical highs, as a "bellwether for altcoins", its rebound signals are seen as leading indicators for the restoration of market sentiment. Accompanied by the rise of ETH, mainstream coins generally experienced a rebound of around 50%, indicating that funds are beginning to flow towards non-BTC assets.
Cyclical Outlook and Strategic Recommendations
Time Window Prediction
Combining market sentiment cycles with historical patterns, it is expected that June-July may become a key window for mainstream coins to exit adjustments. The current market is in the "darkness before dawn", and patiently holding positions while waiting for a turning point has become an important strategy.
Rebalancing Risk and Opportunity: BTC's Defensive Attributes: Suitable for investors with extremely low risk tolerance, serving as the "ballast" of an asset portfolio.
The Offensive Nature of Mainstream Coins: Suitable for investors with cyclical awareness, positioning high-elasticity assets during the market bottoming phase to seek excess returns.
Special Reminder: The "best entry point" and "best profit-taking point" in the crypto space are fleeting. Investors need to establish a clear cyclical framework — market trends are not smooth linear growth but are like "layered mountains", filled with unpredictable steep fluctuations. In the absence of a god's-eye view, reasonably controlling positions and constructing a dynamically balanced asset portfolio may be the optimal solution to cope with uncertainty.
Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
The charm and risk of the crypto space both stem from its "asymmetric" volatility characteristics. When we look up at the mountain top from the valley, we can never predict the depth of the next valley — this is the adventurous essence of the crypto market. For investors, what matters is not predicting trends but establishing survival rules that adapt to volatility:
Build Safety Margins with BTC
Capture Cyclical Opportunities with Mainstream Coins
Crossing Bull and Bear Markets with Disciplined Position Management
Remember, in this foggy mountaineering journey, those who reach the top are often not the fastest, but those who know how to adjust their breathing at the right moment.
