The weekend market remains generally calm, with Bitcoin fluctuating between 104800 and 105500 USD, the trend is as expected. Personally, I choose to watch and do not rashly open positions amid geopolitical conflicts. Although the situation was stable on Trump's birthday, US-China trade remains uncertain. Although the release of rare earths is a positive signal, China has yet to make a statement, and whether it can be implemented still needs observation. This week's market focuses on three aspects: first, the likelihood of Japanese interest rates remaining unchanged; second, the US will announce May retail sales data, expected to be negative, reflecting a slowdown in consumption and economic pressure; third, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is approaching, and although there is little suspense that interest rates will remain unchanged, the dot plot and Powell's speech will directly affect expectations for the interest rate cut path. Bitcoin has closed with star lines for two consecutive weeks, with both upward and downward pin bars washing out positions. Although the fluctuations are not particularly large, many longs and shorts have been shaken out. (Star lines mainly reflect a temporary balance between bullish and bearish forces in the market and often appear at trend reversal points.) From the daily level, the recent rebound touches MA30 and starts to pull back. If it cannot break through and stabilize above 106500 in the short term, it will face a second pullback, with the target reference being the support price of MA60 around 101600.
Intraday trading plan:
Around 108600 is empty, defend 110000, target 104500; profit-loss ratio 3.0.
What are win rate and profit-loss ratio?
Win rate and profit-loss ratio are two indicators used to measure the effectiveness and stability of cryptocurrency trading systems or strategies.
The win rate refers to the probability of making a profit from trades over a certain period or number of trades.
For example, if 10 trades were made in a month, with 6 profitable and 4 losing, the win rate would be 6/10=60%. A higher win rate indicates that the trading system or strategy can better grasp the direction of market price trends.
The profit-loss ratio refers to the ratio between the average profit amount and the average loss amount from trades over a certain period or number of trades.
For example, if 10 trades were made in a month, with 6 profitable averaging 1000 yuan each, and 4 losing averaging 500 yuan each, then the profit-loss ratio would be 1000/500=2. A higher profit-loss ratio indicates that the trading system or strategy can more effectively control risks and increase returns.
