[Emergency Avoidance] Don’t chase after geopolitical news spikes! Iran’s silence + increased Israeli military presence, Trump’s 'peace smoke bomb' is harvesting retail investors.

1. The 'cat and mouse' of the ceasefire: Trump's three major tactics.

The US and Israel team up to trap Iran

  • Before the ceasefire, the US military had just bombed Iran's nuclear facilities (B-2 dropped penetrating bombs destroying Natanz), and then turned around and shouted 'ceasefire', essentially it’s an old tactic of 'defeat first, then negotiate'.

  • True objective: Force Iran to abandon its nuclear program and relinquish influence in the Middle East, allowing the US and Israel to continue controlling the oil lifeline (the Strait of Hormuz carries 30% of global crude oil).

Divergence within Iran

  • Tehran explosion + ceasefire smoke bomb, intended to intensify internal strife in Iran: public anti-war sentiment vs hardliners' revenge demands.

  • History repeats: The 2020 US-Iran conflict used this tactic, but this time it's harsher—a ceasefire declaration coincides with the deployment of three more aircraft carriers to the Middle East!

2. Impact on BTC: Don’t be driven by news!

Short-term: Sentiment speculation (fleeting)

  • Data speaks: After the ceasefire news, BTC surged 5% in 24 hours (1005→1059), SOL rose 6%, and shorts were liquidated for 376 million dollars.

  • Essence: Geopolitical panic is cooling down, funds are flowing back from gold (down 1.8%) to high-risk assets, purely driven by sentiment.

Medium-term: Watch the macroeconomic indicators

  • Core contradiction: Delayed interest rate cuts by the Fed + sluggish US stock market.

  • Crypto fundamentals:

    • Positive: BlackRock's BTC ETF holdings exceed 300,000, providing institutional support.

    • Negative: SEC's regulatory sword hangs over.

Long-term: The double-edged sword of geopolitical turmoil.

  • Demand side: If conflicts reignite, Iran may accelerate using USDT for oil settlements (referencing the 440% increase in USDT turnover during the Israel-Palestine conflict).

  • Risk side: The US uses 'national security' to squeeze exchanges, liquidity may shrink (referencing the 2024 address freeze against Russia).

3. Practical advice for the brothers

  1. Short-term: Don’t chase after spikes in geopolitical news! The ceasefire agreement has many loopholes (Tehran explosion + Israeli silence), and could reverse at any time.

  2. Medium-term: Closely monitor the September Fed interest rate cut signals (current probability 71%) + US stock earnings reports, these two are the main lines for price movements.

  3. Long-term:

    • Geopolitical turmoil benefits BTC's 'sanction evasion' attribute, but beware of regulatory black swan;

    • Hold steady on spot (the halving cycle has just started), leveraged brothers beware of policy strikes!

Summary:
Trump's ceasefire theatrics essentially is 'bomb Iran to boost votes', don't get carried away with the short-term surge in the crypto space!
Ultimately, Bitcoin is driven by the Federal Reserve and institutional ETFs; the SOL ecosystem's explosion also depends on the US stock market.
Beware of repeated geopolitical risks and regulatory blows, stay flat on spot, don't get reckless with contracts!


Remember: War is a politician's ticket, and news is the scalpel of the dog traders.
The final battle for BTC—only trust on-chain data, don’t believe the headline drama!#BTC #伊朗以色列冲突

Above is the US stock market, below is BTC