7.3 Thursday, Latest Bitcoin Market Analysis

Volatility is the norm, spikes and drops are daily occurrences, don't let the K-line dictate your heartbeat. Remember: volatility is the mover of wealth. Last night, Bitcoin surged dramatically, spurred by the opening of the U.S. stock market and a disappointing non-farm payroll report, with prices rising nearly 4600 points in a day. This one-sided movement is too exaggerated, with morning prices approaching around 109000.

Despite breaking through 109000, there has been a divergence in volume and price on the 4-hour level, with the RSI overshooting to 89, and the MACD momentum weakening, indicating that the bulls are losing strength. The current price has reached the Fibonacci 1.618 strong resistance zone (108800-110200), while on-chain monitoring shows significant BTC inflows to exchanges above 110000, and the derivatives funding rate has reached as high as 0.15%, causing a notable increase in short hedging pressure. If it cannot stabilize above 109500, a short-term retracement to the support level of 105800 may occur; a break below this would confirm a head and shoulders pattern, targeting a drop to the range of 102300-101500.

Bitcoin Strategy: Short near 109500, target 105800

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