The recent Bitcoin ⏳ price trend can be described as 'cold at high altitudes'. ⏳

Although it has remained above $100,000, each attempt to break through the $110,000 mark has almost 'slipped by'. The multiple tests in recent days without success have led many to wonder: is this market going to surge or take a break? ⏳

But don’t rush, more and more on-chain data and historical indicators show that this may just be the calm before the storm ⚡. The bull market has not ended; rather, it may have just entered its most exciting phase!

💥 Short-term consolidation ≠ End of the bull market.

On July 7, Bitcoin challenged the resistance of $109,600 again, but couldn't hold, and the price slightly dropped by about 1.4%. Last week's performance was similar, after testing $110,000 unsuccessfully, it slightly retraced to $107,400.

But it is worth noting that:

✅ BTC still strongly holds above the psychological barrier of $100,000.
✅ The weekly close has reached a new high, and the re-testing phase is ongoing.
✅ Multiple support levels have been confirmed as 'effective support'.

Senior analyst Rekt Capital stated that the current adjustment belongs to 'confirmation after a breakout', and if it stabilizes successfully, it will build momentum for the next uptrend.

📊 From on-chain to technical aspects: Multiple signals are indicating that 'the bull market is ongoing'.

It's not just the technical analysts who are bullish; on-chain data is also very persuasive, especially with two classic tools:

🌈 Bitcoin rainbow chart: Targeting up to $200,000?

The rainbow chart model defines Bitcoin's price range based on past halvings, and currently BTC is still in the 'buy' zone.

📌 Conservative estimate: The peak of this round will be in Q4 2025, possibly reaching $157,000.
📌 Optimistic estimate: It could surge to over $217,000.

This chart is not based on short-term sentiment, but rather provides a long-term trend prediction using historical halving data and regression models, leaning towards a conservative outlook.

🧮 Pi cycle peak indicator: The peak is still far from being reached!

The Pi cycle peak indicator also supports the view that 'the peak has not yet been reached'.

Currently, the two key moving averages (350-day SMA x2 and 111-day MA) have not yet crossed, and historically, this crossover often indicates the peak of a cycle.

👉 Currently, the 111-day moving average is still at $97,700, far from the $172,000 of the 350-day SMA x2.

To trigger this indicator signal, BTC must rise further and maintain high levels, meaning there is still room before reaching the peak.

🕰️ Summer consolidation, autumn takeoff?

Analysts generally believe that the current phase is 're-testing + horizontal consolidation', which may last throughout July.

Daan Crypto Trader points out that historically, Bitcoin has formed peaks or troughs in the first 12 days of each month over 80% of the time, after which the direction reverses. Therefore, the performance in the next few days will be crucial for July!

📌 If the market corrects within the next few days, there may be a rebound in the second half of the month.
📌 If it breaks through, it may directly hit new highs.

From a broader perspective, many analysts predict that Bitcoin's true breakout point might have to wait until the end of Q3 or the beginning of Q4, specifically September to October. This rhythm also aligns with past cycle patterns.

✅ In summary: The bull market is not over yet, opportunities are still ahead.

📉 Short-term retracement is a normal correction, not a signal of a crash.

🌈 The rainbow chart shows that $200,000 is a reasonable expectation, with a time window in Q4 2025.

📊 The Pi cycle has not yet triggered the peak, indicating that there is still room for upward movement.

🔁 The current stage is a key support confirmation + temporary consolidation, the “calm before the storm” is brewing a big move!

✍️ DYOR, manage risk well, and may everyone set sail in the crypto world! 🌊

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