It is now July 15th in the afternoon. I want to share a bit of my personal views on Bitcoin. Data will be released at 8:30 PM tonight, and it will be another day with significant volatility.
Bitcoin has been continuously rising these past few days, reaching a peak of 123,000. Many friends unfortunately exited during this wave of increase, and there are still many bearish voices in the market. Generally, people believe that after a significant rise, there should be a decline, which lacks logic 😢.
My understanding is that when we trade contracts, we are essentially betting on the size. Why do you think it will drop by a few thousand points and continue to fall? From a technical perspective, looking at the moving averages and Bollinger Bands, there is a small support level around 116,000. If it holds here, it could continue to rise, and the upward trend remains intact. If this support fails, the next level is between 110,000 and 112,000. If you didn't short at 123,000 and are now entering a position, then after the data is released tonight, you could get caught in a rebound. Why do that? 😢
Then there is a somewhat mystical experience I've summarized, which is that if it drops significantly before data is released, the probability of a rebound after the data is higher.
Personally, I have opened a long position now, with a stop loss at 115,000, because I believe that after gaining over 10,000 points, a drop of a few thousand points is a normal and healthy correction. If it goes down to around 110,000, I will continue to enter positions. I believe there are definitely a lot of people stuck at that level, and when they break even, they will close their positions.
Even if I lose money, I am willing to accept it 😭, because I am not trading blindly. What I need to do now is open the delta 🥵 and see when the US stock market opens tonight.
