On the night I lost 800,000 in the crypto market, I stared at the last 5000U on the screen, my fingertips cold as ice - when the account dropped from 2 million, my wife smashed our wedding photo, my mother cried on the phone until she couldn't breathe, and a friend's 'I warned you' message still floated at the top of my WeChat.
The ashtray at 3 AM piled up like a small mountain, and the debt collection messages in my phone came like snowflakes, each with a red exclamation mark. I stared at that string of numbers, watching it drop from 5000U to 100, 50, 10... Each drop felt like cutting flesh, cold sweat soaked my undershirt, my heart pounded painfully in my chest, even my breath tasted rusty.
The thought of 'forget it' surfaced countless times, the mouse hovered over the 'liquidate' button, my fingers trembled so much I couldn't press it. This isn't just money; it's my parents' retirement fund, my child's tuition for the next semester, it's the courage I muster in front of the mirror saying 'one last try'.
As the sky outside turned white, I slapped myself hard twice. The account froze at 5000U, like the last blade of grass on the edge of a cliff. I stared at the candlestick chart, blood vessels bursting in my eyes - if I lose this time, I’ll be done for. But if I win...
I gritted my teeth and extinguished the remaining cigarette butt on the table: 'This 5000U is my life.'
Every second the 5000U danced in the account felt like walking on a knife's edge. The lesson of losing 800,000 is etched into my bones - I can’t gamble on feelings this time; I must use a set of bloody rules to restrain myself. Here are the rolling position strategies I’ve honed over six months, each step corresponding to past loss traps, suitable for small capital starters who want to turn things around through compound interest.
One, The Prerequisite for Rolling Positions: First, stay alive, then talk about profit.
1. Only start rolling positions during 'clear trend periods'
Use the 20-day moving average to divide long and short: If the price stabilizes above the 20-day line and the moving average turns upward, only go long; if it breaks below the 20-day line and the moving average turns downward, only go short.
Never roll positions in a choppy market (for example, when the coin price repeatedly oscillates around the 20-day line), this is the iron rule I summarized after losing 300,000 - rolling positions in a choppy market is like 'slapping yourself left and right', a 1.5% stop loss will be triggered repeatedly, and 5000U can't last 3 days.
2. The base position must be 'light as a feather'
The initial position should never exceed 10% of total capital (starting from 5000U, the first position should be at most 500U), using 2-5 times leverage (high leverage = accelerated death; I tried 10 times leverage, and after 3 stop losses, I lost the entire base position).
For example: If ETH is above the 20-day line, current price 2000U, use 500U to go long, set stop loss at 1970U (1.5% drop), if stop loss is triggered, total loss is only 500 × 1.5% = 7.5U, which doesn't harm the foundation.
Two, The Core of Rolling Positions: Add positions with floating profits, let profits 'roll like snowballs'.
1. First add position: profit must 'cover 2 stop losses'
Add positions when the base profit reaches over 3% (enough to cover 2 stop losses of 1.5%) and the price retraces to the support level (for example, the 5-day line or previous high breakout), then add positions, with the add amount = 50% of current profit.
For example: If the base position of 500U buys ETH at 2000U, rises to 2060U (profit 3%, earning 30U), when it retraces to 2040U, use 15U (50% of 30U profit) to add a position, at this point total position 515U, move stop loss up to 2020U (new support level).
2. After each add position, stop loss must 'lock in base profit'
Immediately adjust the stop loss line to 'base cost line + 1%' after adding a position, ensuring that even if the added position loses all, the base position is still profitable.
For example, if the base cost is 2000U, after the first add position, set the stop loss at 2020U, at this point even if the market reverses, at least 20U profit can be preserved, avoiding losses.
3. No more than 3 rolling positions in a single day, and no single species position exceeding 50%.
Being greedy is the enemy of rolling positions; I tried adding positions 5 times in one day, and a single pullback wiped out the profits from the first 4 times. I only look at the market and add positions at three key times: 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM, locking positions at other times without trading.
Never put all your eggs in one basket; for example, simultaneously hold ETH (60% position) and SOL (40% position) to avoid a single-species black swan (like a LUNA-style collapse) that could wipe out the account.
Three, Stop Loss and Take Profit: The 'life-saving talisman' more important than adding positions.
1. Stop loss: 1.5% is the red line, must 'close instantly' when broken
No matter how many times you add positions, the total loss of a single trade must not exceed 1.5% of the initial capital (1.5% of 5000U = 75U).
For example, if the base position is 500U + add position 200U, total position 700U, when the price hits the stop loss level, immediately close all, even if there is a floating loss of 60U (not exceeding the 75U red line), it must be executed - this is the discipline earned from a 200,000 loss; hesitation even once could trigger a chain liquidation.
2. Take Profit: Divide into 'small waves' and 'big trends' in two steps
Small Wave Take Profit: When a rolling position earns 20% of the initial capital (for example, 5000U earns 1000U), first close 50% of the position to lock in profit, continue to roll the remaining 50% (using a trailing stop to protect).
Big Trend Take Profit: Until the price breaks below the 20-day line and cannot recover, or there is a 'volume stagnation' (for example, rising for 3 consecutive days but the trading volume decreases), close all positions at once. Last year's ETH rose from 2000U to 4000U based on 'taking profit only after breaking the 20-day line', resulting in 3 times the profit.
Four, Practical Case: How to roll 5000U into 500,000U?
Taking the 2023 SOL market as an example (from 20U to 100U):
Startup Phase (20U): Open long with 500U, stop loss at 19.7U (1.5%), leverage 3 times.
First Add Position (22U): Profit reaches 10% (50U), add 25U when it retraces to 21.5U (50% of the profit), move stop loss up to 20.5U.
Second Add Position (25U): Total profit reaches 30% (150U), add 75U when it retraces to 24U, move stop loss up to 23U.
Wave Take Profit (35U): Profit exceeds 20% (1000U), close 50% of the position, take 500U profit, continue to roll the remaining position.
Trend Take Profit (98U): When SOL breaks below the 20-day line, close all positions. At this time, the initial 5000U has rolled to 520,000U, taking 3 months, during which 5 stop losses were triggered (each loss not exceeding 75U), but capturing 3 major upward waves.
Five, The 3 'Deadly Pitfalls' to Avoid in Rolling Positions
Never add positions during 'losses': This is the essential difference between rolling positions and the Martingale strategy - Martingale adds positions to average down losses, while rolling positions must 'add when profitable'. I once lost 5000U in 2 hours due to adding positions after a loss.
Avoid 'small coins' and 'contract expiry dates': Coins with a market cap below 1 billion have unpredictable fluctuations, and the capital games before expiry can disrupt trends. In these two cases, rolling positions sees a 70% drop in stop-loss success rate.
Reduce leverage after profits exceed 5 times: When capital rises from 5000U to 25,000U, immediately reduce leverage from 5 times to 2 times - the more money you have, the more you should fear loss. I've seen too many people get greedy with high leverage after making 10 times their investment, only to return to square one after a single pullback.
Finally, I want to say: Rolling positions are not a tool for 'violent wealth accumulation', but a game of 'discipline to exchange for compound interest'. That 5000U can turn around not because of a good market, but by locking each loss at 1.5% and magnifying each profit to over 10%. If your account has only a little left, don’t think about 'all in', first learn to let profit roll like a snowball - when the wind comes, the snowball will naturally grow, but the premise is that you must first preserve the core of that snowball.
(If you want to know how to specifically judge 'support/resistance levels' and 'trend initiation signals', you can leave a message, and I will send the drawing tools and indicator parameters to those who seriously want to turn their fortunes around.)