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๐ Macro Monday - August 5, 2025
Is Bitcoin quietly hibernating before its next major move, or is it on the brink of a disastrous collapse?
Thatโs the burning question on every traderโs mind.
In his recent โMacro Mondayโ livestream, veteran crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz delivered a deep dive into Bitcoinโs current state, highlighting the seasonal slowdown, ETF flows, futures markets, and broader macroeconomic threats. His insights suggest that Q4 could be the ultimate decider โ a breakout or breakdown moment that separates survivors from bag-holders.
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๐ง August-September: Cryptoโs Cold Season
According to Olszewicz, Bitcoin is following its historical trend of weak price performance during late summer. "This periodโAugust and Septemberโis almost always barren for Bitcoin," he said, referencing seasonal charts that show consistent underperformance during these months across multiple years.
He added:
> "We are in a seasonal weakening phaseโฆ it happens nearly every year. But that doesnโt mean the bull run is over."
So, is this just a pauseโor the start of a crash?
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๐ฉ Cycle Peak or Calm Before the Storm?
At day 978 of the current bull cycle, many are wondering:
Has Bitcoin peaked?
Are we at the end of the road?
Or is the biggest rally still ahead?
Josh remains cautiously bullish:
> โIโm in the โmaybe-not-endedโ campโฆ weโll know more in Q4. That quarter will decide everything.โ
๐ Technical indicators? Stable. ๐ Price action? Just a pullback. ๐ฅ Parabolic run-up? Still missing.
He explained that typical signs of market topsโlike excessive leverage, overheating on-chain metrics, or euphoric sentimentโsimply arenโt here yet.
So while the short-term outlook may seem dull, the long-term game is still in play.
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๐ฅฑ Momentum Weak, Bulls on Standby
Bitcoin recently broke out of a cup-and-handle formation, momentarily pushing toward the $122,000โ$123,000 zone.
But... the excitement didnโt last.
Now trading below $120K, Olszewicz doubts itโll return there soon:
> โIf we donโt see buying pressure within two weeks, reclaiming $120K will be tough.โ
The main wildcard?
๐ฅ ETF capital inflows.
"Retail is tapped out," he noted. "We need ETF flowsโeither through short squeezes, monthly rebalancing, or opportunistic buys on dips."
In other words, institutions must carry the torch.
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๐ Futures Market Shows Signs of Exhaustion
Futures data is flashing warning signs.
> "BTCโs premium is now below 7%, ETH below 8%, and SOL dropped from 35% to 15%," Josh noted.
This means the speculative appetite is vanishing. When the futures premium collapses, itโs often a sign that smart money is stepping back, and risk-taking is slowing down.
๐ง On-chain metrics agree:
๐ Declining MVRV ratios and low unrealized profits suggest investors are no longer in โmoon mode.โ
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๐ฏ Q4: The Make-or-Break Quarter
So what could revive Bitcoin in Q4?
Josh listed three potential catalysts:
1. ๐ฆ Federal Reserve Rate Cuts
2. ๐ Weakening USD or Fed independence
3. ๐ช๏ธ Seasonal strength or macroeconomic shocks
But he warned:
> โIf youโre using 50x leverage after a big cycle gain... think again. This isnโt the time for reckless risk.โ
With ETF flows stagnant, liquidity drying, and speculators on pause, October to December becomes the most crucial test of Bitcoin's resilience.
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๐๏ธ Macroeconomic Madness: The Hidden Threat
Even outside of crypto, the macro picture is shaky:
๐ Inflation (Trueflation) is still low at 1.65%, but tariffs starting August 1 could spike it.
๐ PCE index is heading the wrong way.
๐งฎ Atlanta Fed GDPNow model shows sluggish 2.1% growth.
Labor market signals are flashing amber:
> "The real unemployment rate could hit 4.9%,โ Josh warned, especially in manufacturing-heavy Rust Belt states.
Add to that the gradual disappearance of the $2T Fed reverse repo support, and we may see sudden liquidity shocks unless the Fed steps in.
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๐ Bitcoin ETFs: The Real Game Changer
Despite all the concerns, Josh says thereโs one reason for long-term hope:
๐ Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
> โThatโs the real difference-maker,โ he said.
โThe approvals are in. Trading has started. And the cash flow impact? Massive.โ
Even if short-term sentiment is cold, the institutional infrastructure is being built. And when the next macro tailwind arrives, this foundation could fuel a massive run.
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๐ค Conclusion: Bitcoin is Sleeping, Not Dead
So, whatโs the final verdict?
๐ The short term looks dull.
๐ The cycle hasnโt peaked.
๐ฏ Q4 is the deciding battlefield.
Josh ended his session with a simple but powerful takeaway:
> โThis cycle may not be overโฆ Itโs just sleeping. Q4 will tell us if it wakes up โ or dies.โ
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โ ๏ธ Pro Tip for Traders:
If youโve made profits this cycle, now might be the time to reduce leverage, stay nimble, and avoid overtrading.
๐ Markets are cooling.
๐ง Smart money is observing.
โณ And Q4 is right around the corner.
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๐ Stay alert. Stay patient. The real move is coming โ or maybe, already quietly building.
#Bitcoin #BTCanalysis #MacroMonday #CryptoNews $BTC
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