The price of Ripple's XRP has started to show initial signs of stabilization after a sharp drop in the last 24 hours. The token recently broke its long-term downtrend channel and fell below its realized price, a level that indicates the average cost of all coins in circulation. After retreating to $1.11, XRP has recovered to the $1.30 region.
At first glance, the movement indicates a significant jump. In previous cycles, similar conditions arose close to inflection points. However, historical data indicates that XRP tends to consolidate for prolonged periods at these levels before starting a recovery. Current technical and on-chain indicators show that, although selling pressure is increasing, the market may not have undergone a complete adjustment yet.
Decline in the descending channel takes XRP to a high-risk zone
The drop in XRP intensified between February 4 and 6, when the price clearly broke its downtrend channel. This structure had guided the asset towards lower levels since mid-2025, forming lower highs and lows.
After losing the support of the lower trend line, XRP slipped to the low projection area near $0.93, briefly touching $1.11. Despite the bounce since then, the broader trend is still considered weak.
Similar breaks in previous cycles rarely marked immediate bottoms and rapid recoveries.
The historical realized price shows why this 'bottom zone' may last for years
In mid-2022, XRP lost an important support, the realized price line, and entered a prolonged bearish phase. After this breakdown, the price continued to operate in decline and consolidation for more than two years, until the beginning of the rally at the end of 2024.
This pattern indicates that structural breaks generally open up space for long stabilization phases, and not for quick reversals. The move back to $1.30 has not changed this behavior so far.
During the recent realization, XRP briefly fell below its realized price, which is currently close to $1.47. This indicator reflects the average cost of purchasing the circulating coins. When the market price falls below this value, most investors accumulate losses.
This type of scenario generally signals moments of financial pressure, but not necessarily the definitive bottoms of the cycle.
A clear example occurred in 2022.
In June 2022, XRP traded around $0.31, while the realized price was near $0.56. The asset then showed a drop of about 46% relative to the realized price. Despite this discount, XRP did not start a bull market, but rather a prolonged bearish phase.
Between mid-2022 and November 2024, XRP repeatedly stayed close to the realized price, often ending sessions just above or just below it. This 'tracking the line' phase lasted more than two years. Only after this long consolidation period did the big rally to $3.54 come.
Compared to that cycle, the current context is less intense.
The current price, between $1.21 and $1.30, corresponds to a distance of about 18% to 25% below the $1.47 level of the realized price. In 2022, the discount was almost double. This suggests that stress is building up, but a total and prolonged capitulation has not yet occurred.
Long-term investor behavior supports the concept of 'realized price'
The Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator is currently close to -0.19, indicating that many long-term XRP investors are at a loss. However, in the bottom phases of past cycles, this indicator reached even lower levels, such as -0.31 (in early 2023), before starting to recover.
Therefore, despite the pressure on investors, movements from previous cycles suggest that the current phase may still have room to unfold.
At the same time, the movement of spent coins increased. Since February 4, the spent coin age indicator, which signals the movement of previously inactive assets by investors, rose from around 79 million to over 198 million, registering a 150% increase. This scenario indicates that previously stagnant coins are being transferred, usually to exchanges. In phases of strong consolidation, this index tends to drop, as selling pressure decreases. The current increase, visible even after the price drop, indicates that distribution remains ongoing.
A similar movement in early February was followed by a new pullback, reinforcing that repositioning is still ongoing.
Together, the historical realized price, NUPL, and increased coin circulation indicate that XRP is in a pressure zone, still without confirmation of an accumulation phase.
XRP's price structure shows why $0.93 remains a fundamental test
All these on-chain signals return to the price structure. XRP remains below its broken channel and also below the realized price. This keeps the risk of new declines high.
The next major support is near $0.93. This level coincides with channel projections and Fibonacci retracement areas, being an area of importance where buyers may try to hold the price.
If $0.93 does not hold, the next relevant drop zone appears around $0.52, which served as a long-term base during the bear market of 2022–2023.
On the positive side, XRP's price needs to first recover $1.47 to regain investor confidence. A rise above $1.69 and $1.97 would be needed to improve the medium-term structure.
As long as the realized price is not reclaimed, NUPL does not stabilize, and the movement of spent coins does not remain low for an extended period, all XRP rallies tend to face new selling pressure.
The article XRP Price indicates a possible bottom, but history warns against optimism was seen for the first time in BeInCrypto Brazil.
