Gold rose to $3,659 in September 2025, marking its highest level ever as demand from central banks and global debt concerns led to changes in investor confidence.
Analysts expect gold to reach $4,000+, while Bitcoin may lag by 90-100 days, fueling expectations of reaching $167,000 – $185,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The rise of silver to $41 raises concerns that capital may shift away from Bitcoin to traditional safe assets.
In September 2025, gold continued its gains for the fourth consecutive week and set a new record at $3,659 per ounce. Bitcoin investors watched closely, waiting for $BTC as the relationship between the two assets increased interest.
However, capital flows may present a more complex picture. The rise in precious metals is believed to divert some investor interest away from Bitcoin.
Experts expect the rise of gold to continue
Versan the surgeon, the capitalist at Black Swan, citing data from Criscat Capital on X, indicated that foreign central banks are now holding more gold than U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996. Based on this, he predicted that gold could rise to $4,000 or more.
Other analysts added further reasons for the continued rise of gold. Analyst End Jim Macro explained on X that gold has surpassed its inflation-adjusted peak since 1980, ending a 45-year period.
Inflation-adjusted spot gold price. Source: Barchart
This development reflects a broader decline in confidence in the current monetary system, affected by U.S. debt inflation, doubts about the credibility of the Federal Reserve, increasing geopolitical tensions, and standard purchases by central banks from emerging markets.
End Jim Macro said that "gold is not rising just because people suddenly love the shiny metal, but it is rising because confidence in the system is declining."
Similarly, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned of a stagflationary environment resulting from global debt burdens. He emphasized that the financial system heavily relies on converting debt into money. However, the current lack of liquidity makes devaluing the U.S. dollar against other currencies more attractive. As a result, gold is expected to outperform.
The rise of gold brings new hope for Bitcoin
Joe Consorti, a well-known Bitcoin analyst on X, noted that gold typically leads $BTC by about 100 days because gold has ten times more liquidity and a wider distribution.
Some analysts use a 90-day lag instead of 100. But overall, consensus remains that Bitcoin typically follows gold within about three months.
Bitcoin vs. gold (100-day lag). Source: Joe Consorti
This perspective positions Bitcoin as a "echo" of gold. With the first maintenance rate cut expected next week, the fourth quarter of 2025 seems poised for strong growth.
Consorti predicts that "Bitcoin is the echo of prosperity. The first maintenance rate cut is expected next week. The fourth quarter setup looks great."
Tifra Digital reinforced this view by examining Bitcoin's correlation with global M2 supply. Their chart showed that Bitcoin tends to follow M2 expansion with a lag of 102 days and gold's rise with a lag of 200 days.
Global M2 supply, gold, and Bitcoin. Source: Tifra Digital
Tifra Digital LLC predicted that "if Bitcoin's lagging correlations with M2 and gold continue, the rest of the year may be very exciting. The charts below indicate $167k–$185k."
Although technical perspectives differ slightly, both Joe Consorti and Tifra Digital agree on an optimistic outlook for gold and Bitcoin.
Despite the optimism, some concerns persist. Silver recently rose above $41, its highest level since 2012. This raised arguments that gold and silver may attract more capital from $BTC , potentially shifting flows into precious metals.
Investor LBroad noted that "capital seems to have begun shifting from assets that have risen significantly, like Bitcoin, to traditional safe havens like precious metals."
Economist Peter Schiff pointed out that Bitcoin, when valued against gold, is currently about 16% lower than its peak in November 2021. This indicates a broader trend where investors prefer precious metals over assets like Bitcoin.
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