The cryptocurrency market currently seems weak, but in reality, both the shift in macro monetary policy and the influx of stablecoins and institutional funds are building a foundation for a sustained bull market.
I. Macro Background
Latest data shows that U.S. employment data is weak (non-farm payrolls increased by 22,000, far below the expected 70,000), and inflation remains stubbornly at 3.1%. Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 25bp in September has almost become a market consensus, with a total cut expected to be around 75bp for the year.
For crypto assets, there is a significant negative correlation between interest rates and Bitcoin prices. A rate cut means liquidity release, benefiting risk assets in general. Historical experience shows that in every round of easing, if combined with institutional breakthroughs like ETFs, it will drive the crypto market to welcome a new wave of increases.
II. Funding Situation
Since the beginning of 2024, the market value of stablecoins has increased from 200 billion USD to 280 billion USD by 2025, with an annual growth rate of 66% and an average monthly growth rate of 4.2%. This trend indicates that even during market downturns, stablecoins continue to expand; stablecoins provide a 'gateway capital pool' for the crypto market, with some inflows expected to convert into buying pressure for BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
It is important to note that the rapid diversification of stablecoin categories also harbors systemic risks similar to the UST/Luna incident.
III. Institutional Entry
1. ETF Channels
BTC ETF: Large scale, high liquidity, positioned as 'digital gold', leaning towards long-term allocation.
ETH ETF: Struggled last year, but is expected to surpass in 2025, with trading volume and net inflows exceeding BTC for the first time, shifting the narrative to 'digital crude oil' and 'world computer'.
2. Treasury Buy
BTC: Institutions have cumulatively bought over 1,000,000 coins, but purchases are highly concentrated among a few institutions like MicroStrategy, leading to excessive pricing power.
ETH: Institutional holdings increased from 300,000 ETH at the beginning of the year to 4,700,000 ETH, with a more dispersed distribution indicating a healthier landscape.
When a company's stock market value exceeds the value of its crypto asset holdings, it can continuously buy tokens through financing, thereby driving up prices; conversely, the momentum weakens when this is not the case.
IV. Regulation and Traditional Finance
With expectations of Trump's victory, the market predicts that regulation will become more lenient. The SEC has approved BTC and ETH ETFs and is gradually loosening restrictions on certain mainstream altcoins (such as LTC, DOT, ADA). Traditional financial institutions, motivated by risk hedging and competition, prefer to 'take the risk of misinvestment rather than being absent'.
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