宏观经济

$ETH $BTC $ZEC 🚨Japan's interest rate hike becomes next week's macro theme! Short-term emotional disturbances rather than cyclical damage

1. Reports suggest that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates to 0.75% and signal further rate hikes, with a final target potentially reaching 1.25%. A 50 basis points hike could exacerbate concerns over the narrowing Japan-U.S. interest rate differential.

2. Pay attention to the JP02Y and US02Y interest rate differential; currently, the nominal differential is still large, and the impact of a single rate hike is limited. Only when combined with subsequent rate hikes and expectations of U.S. rate cuts will emotional fluctuations be amplified.

3. The narrowing of the interest rate differential will lead to short-term liquidity tightening, but in the long run, a cyclical easing will be welcomed, overall characterized as a short-term emotional disturbance
#日本加息 #美日利差 #宏观经济 #美联储降息 #牛市进行中…

🇺🇸 The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points,
bringing the target range down to 3.5%–3.75%.

This means that market liquidity may improve, and investor sentiment towards risk assets could rise.

What do you think?👇
#美联储 #利率 #宏观经济 #加密货币 #Binance

The Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Steps Restart: New Narratives and Cautious Expectations in the Cryptocurrency Market

According to the latest economic data and signals from the Federal Reserve, market expectations for the Fed to soon restart its rate cut cycle have significantly increased. This potential shift in macro policy is injecting new narrative logic into the global risk asset market, and the cryptocurrency sector is no exception.

From a historical cycle perspective, a liquidity easing environment is typically viewed as a 'booster' for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. If rate cut expectations gradually materialize, they may have two effects: first, weakening the relative attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, prompting some funds to seek alternative value storage tools like Bitcoin; second, improving the overall risk appetite in the market, bringing a more abundant liquidity environment for the crypto market.

Currently, Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets have partially reflected this expectation in advance, but subsequent trends will remain closely anchored to the specific pace and magnitude of the Fed's policies. It is important to be vigilant, as there is a volatility window between 'expectation speculation' and 'fact realization,' and market sentiment may quickly switch between optimism and caution.

For investors, while focusing on macro trends, it is advisable to also concentrate on the fundamental progress of blockchain itself. Healthy ecological development, continuous innovation, and application implementation are the fundamental supports for the long-term value of assets. Maintain rationality amid volatility and grasp the core in trends.

Do you think that after the rate cut cycle begins, funds will prefer Bitcoin or Ethereum more? Feel free to share your views.

#美联储 #宏观经济 #加密货币

Global Central Bank Storm Week! The Federal Reserve leads multiple countries' interest rate decisions, China's November CPI and social financing data make a significant appearance

Next week (12.8-12.13), the market is about to welcome the 'Super Central Bank Week,' with multiple countries' interest rate decisions being announced densely, and key economic data being released consecutively, expected to have a significant impact on the global financial market. Here are the key events and data overview:

📅 Monday (12.8)

· China's November trade balance
· Domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens

📅 Tuesday (12.9)

· Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision + Chairman Lowe press conference
· U.S. October JOLTs job openings

📅 Wednesday (12.10)

· China's November CPI, social financing data
· Bank of Canada interest rate decision
· Bank of England Governor Bailey speech

📅 Thursday (12.11)

· Federal Reserve interest rate decision + Powell press conference (the main focus)
· Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
· IEA and OPEC monthly crude oil report

📅 Friday (12.12)

· CPI data from multiple countries (Germany, France, UK)
· Several Federal Reserve officials speaking

📅 Saturday (12.13)

· CFTC positions report released

🔥 Focus Interpretation:
1️⃣ Will the Federal Reserve release a rate cut signal? The market closely watches the dot plot and Powell's statements.
2️⃣ How are China's inflation and credit data? This will affect A-shares, the Renminbi, and commodity sentiment.
3️⃣ With multiple central banks synchronously discussing interest rates, does this indicate a global monetary policy shift?
4️⃣ Dual reports in the crude oil market (IEA + OPEC) combined with EIA inventory, oil price volatility may intensify.

💎 Trading Advice: Large funds hold mainstream cryptocurrencies spot $ETH and $BTC , small funds hold ✨P u p P I e s🐶, suggested to pay attention to the U.S. dollar index, gold, government bonds, and major currency pair trends, ensure risk control, and avoid excessive exposure to a single event.

📌 Follow me for real-time interpretations and market strategies.
#美联储何时降息？ #利率决议 #CPI #宏观经济

💰 The Era of Huge Losses for the Federal Reserve Ends After Three Years! Is This a Major Positive for the Cryptocurrency Market?

It has been three years, and the Federal Reserve has finally ended its continuous losses! It has returned to profitability since early November, and the scale of deferred assets has decreased for the first time. The key reason is the interest rate cuts—rates have dropped from a peak of 5.5% to 3.75-4%, significantly reducing banks' interest expenses on reserves.

This is not only a change in accounting items but also an important signal of a shift in monetary policy:
✅ Reduced operational pressure on the Federal Reserve
✅ Further opening of interest rate cut space
✅ Continued improvement in the global liquidity environment

For the cryptocurrency market, this means:
🔥 A rebound in traditional funds' risk appetite
🔥 Market liquidity is supported
🔥 A more favorable macro environment for crypto assets

Historical experience shows that interest rate cut cycles are often a good period for the performance of risk assets. Although the Federal Reserve will not directly purchase cryptocurrencies, a loose monetary environment creates favorable conditions for the entire crypto market.

#美联储降息周期 #宏观经济 #降息期待 #加密市场 #流动性分析

Under the new regulations of the thirteen departments, where is China's Web3 era headed?
The essence of this new regulation is very different from the 924 document of 2021. The old regulation merely clarified the illegality of virtual currency transactions, simply stating that buying and selling U is not allowed, and only discussed the illegal aspects. But the new regulation is different; its core focuses more on joint efforts by departments to combat these behaviors, not just stating that they are illegal, but clearly indicating that they will take proactive measures to crack down on such actions.
The second difference is that the new regulation establishes a joint coordination mechanism. It can be understood that previously there was just a red line saying, "this action is prohibited," but now a dedicated team has been formed, making it clear that "this time it is specifically to combat such behaviors."
Another key point is that the new regulation directly points out stablecoins within virtual currencies, such as USDT and USDC, which are tied to fiat currency and are under scrutiny. The new regulations from the 13 ministries explicitly aim to combat these stablecoins, also stating that stablecoins are mainly suspected of three types of problems: first, money laundering; second, fraud; and third, being exploited by underground banks to transfer domestic funds through related financial transactions.
Therefore, I believe that the new regulations from the 13 ministries will definitely have a much greater crackdown intensity than previous regulations, and it is estimated that there will be a major cleansing in the industry in the next two to three months.
The purpose of the new regulations is not to terminate but to rebuild under the rules. Virtual currency-related businesses can no longer survive in the country, but the legitimate development of blockchain technology still has broad prospects, achieving sustainable development within the regulatory framework.
#web3 #美SEC推动加密创新监管 #宏观经济 #加密市场回调

Amid the frenzy of interest rate cuts, the financial logic behind the "explosion" of the currency circle competes with global capital!

The interest rate cut policy is directly related to the supply and flow of money, especially because of the economic logic behind it and the dynamics of global capital flows.

First, we need to understand the economic logic behind the interest rate cut policy. Interest rate cuts are usually seen as an economic stimulus tool, aiming to stimulate investment and consumption by reducing borrowing costs, thereby promoting economic growth. In this process, the supply of funds in the market increases and liquidity increases, which provides more vitality to the financial market.

However, in the currency circle, this logic is more direct and obvious. Due to the nature of the digital currency market, it is more susceptible to capital flows. When a large amount of money flows into the currency circle, the price of digital currency tends to rise; conversely, when money flows out, the price may fall. This simple physical logic makes the interest rate cut policy an important factor affecting the trend of the currency circle.

So, why will interest rate cuts cause funds to flow into the currency circle? This is mainly due to two factors. On the one hand, interest rate cuts have lowered borrowing costs, making it easier for investors to obtain funds for investment. In the context of seeking high returns, the digital currency market often becomes one of their choices. On the other hand, interest rate cuts may also lead to increased volatility in traditional financial markets, causing some investors to turn to the digital currency market for safety.

However, interest rate cuts are not without risks. For a global economic power like the United States, interest rate cuts may cause funds to flow out of the United States, thus triggering a series of financial risks. In order to deal with this risk, the United States may take a series of measures, including exporting force to reduce financial risks. The existence of such geopolitical risks requires investors to pay close attention to changes in the global political and economic situation while paying attention to interest rate cut policies.

If you are a friend who has been chasing the rise and the fall, often being trapped, without the latest news in the currency circle, and has no direction, follow and check out my top mosquito net. I share the bull market strategy layout with my fans for free, just to increase my followers!

$BTC $ETH $BNB
#BTC☀ #宏观经济 #美联储何时降息？

Follow this week:
In addition to the intensive speeches of the Fed's veterans, there are also some economic data that need attention. The ADP small non-agricultural data can be ignored. Tonight's job vacancies are worth paying attention to, and then there is Wednesday's "service industry" PMI. and "Manufacturing" PMI, the highlight is Friday's "Unemployment Rate" and "Non-Farm Employment". From the current point of view, if the previous value is not revised, the probability of non-agricultural benefit is greater, while the unemployment rate is even higher. Pay attention, because the importance of the unemployment rate indicator has been mentioned several times. If the unemployment rate can be higher than expected and parallel to the previous value of 3.9, coupled with the current non-agricultural data, (provided that the pre-non-agricultural value is not revised) personally There is a high probability that it is a two-way positive, although this rarely happens.
It has entered the halving month + the pre-halving period, which is this week. There are more economic data and Fed officials speaking. I personally suggest that Heyue can stop for a while, although I really like to play out the contract.
The above content is not intended as investment advice, but is for reference only. Thank you for reading! #BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥 #宏观经济 #宏观数据

The current macro-level is unprecedentedly complex, and the flow of funds in the global capital market is deeply affected by the uncertainty of the external environment. Focusing on potential crises and emergencies around the world, we first noticed that tensions in the Middle East have intensified sharply, and Iran's potential attack threat against Israel is imminent. The White House has issued an early warning and strengthened its defenses. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded Israel's credit rating, further reflecting the concerns about regional security.

On the other hand, the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to loom, and the situation has taken a sharp turn for the worse. Ukraine's military operations have penetrated deep into Russian territory and controlled a large area of ​​territory, including nearly 1,000 square kilometers and several towns and villages. President Putin's tough response hinted that the conflict may escalate further, and even triggered concerns about the use of nuclear weapons, exacerbating the tension in the global security situation.

In addition, changes in the political field are also noteworthy. Trump's leading position in the election prediction market was reversed by Harris, who took the lead in key swing states. The unexpected events encountered by Trump seem to have accelerated this transformation, and the market began to discuss the so-called "Harris trade", but for us, its specific content is not the core. What is important is that the expectation of a non-Trump victory is generally regarded as a negative factor in the capital market.
#宏观经济

QCP Capital Viewpoint: Although BTC is Bullish in the Long Term, Caution is Required for Short-Term Entry

On July 14, QCP Capital released an analysis post regarding the current state of the Bitcoin market, stating that Bitcoin is currently experiencing strong upward momentum, successfully surging past the key price level of $122,000. This rise is driven partly by technical breakthroughs, and on the other hand, a significant increase in institutional demand has played a crucial role.

From the market sentiment indicators, the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index has rapidly risen from 40 to 70 in just three weeks, indicating a marked shift in market sentiment from 'fear' to 'greed'.

At the same time, institutional investment enthusiasm is surging; last week, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $2 billion, clearly demonstrating a significant increase in institutional participation and indicating that institutions are actively engaging in Bitcoin investment.

In the derivatives market, a series of data also reflects the active market situation. Leveraged long positions have increased significantly, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is nearing 30%, and open interest has surpassed $43 billion, marking the first breakthrough since January of this year, further highlighting the market's heat.

However, the current Bitcoin price has entered unknown territory, making it difficult to accurately predict a short-term top. Fortunately, the options market provides some valuable clues. Implied volatility has not surged along with the spot price increase; although front-end volatility has risen, it remains below last year's average level, reflecting that the market is gradually maturing, and the Ethereum market shows similar characteristics.

Additionally, traders may prefer to use perpetual contracts due to higher option costs. Data shows that the one-month risk reversal indicator is stable, while the September and December indicators indicate strong demand for call options, suggesting that investors maintain a bullish outlook on the long-term market while hedging short-term risks.

Finally, QCP Capital advises that given the current high funding rates, along with the profound lessons from the liquidation incident in February this year, investors should proceed with greater caution. Although structurally optimistic about Bitcoin's upward trend, considering the current price situation, it is more advisable for investors to be cautious in entering the market and to wait for market corrections before making positions.

#比特币走势 #加密货币市场 #机构需求 #宏观经济

🔥【Important data warning】The number of initial jobless claims in the United States is about to be released, will BTC change?

📅 Time: 21:30 (tonight)

📊 Data: Initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending February 1

⚠️ Expected: 213,000 vs. the previous value of 207,000 (if it exceeds expectations, the expectation of a Fed rate cut will increase!)

💡 Pay attention to risks

If the number of unemployed people rises unexpectedly → the US dollar is under pressure → Bitcoin may take advantage of the momentum to break through resistance!

If the data is lower than expected → the US dollar rebounds → Beware of short-term correction risks!

🚨 Recently, macro data has been released frequently, and the linkage between BTC and US stocks has intensified. It is recommended to keep a close eye on the market fluctuations and do a good job of risk control!

Do you think the data tonight will be positive or negative?

⚠️ There may be sharp fluctuations after the data is released. Operate with a light position and refuse FOMO!

#比特币 #美联储 #宏观经济 #交易策略 #币圈情报局 $BTC $SOL $XRP

Next week's news overview, one five-star event and four four-star events. #宏观经济 $BTC

【Federal Reserve's "hawkish" voice resurfaces, market continues under pressure】

St. Louis Fed President Bullard recently spoke out, emphasizing that the central bank must continue to apply pressure on inflation that is above target. He warned that current monetary policy is in a sensitive position of "between slightly tightening and neutral," approaching the boundary of stopping the tightening pressure.

🎙️ Key insights:
Policy stance: In sync with Cleveland Fed's Harker, believes inflation risks remain, but no further rate hikes are necessary at this time.
Potential risks: Clearly pointed out that government deficits are on an "unsustainable path," which could push long-term rates higher in the future, posing a threat to financial stability.
Market impact: This statement provides the market with a crucial assessment of the degree of policy tightening, directly guiding pricing in the fixed income market and the U.S. Treasury yield curve.

💡 Market interpretation:
Against the backdrop of a labor market still close to full employment, Bullard's comments reinforce the Fed's "higher for longer" rate stance. This means that while the rate hike cycle may have ended, the opening of the rate cut window will be more cautious and delayed than the market expects.

#FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #USTreasuries #宏观经济

📰 November 18 Financial News


The U.S. government shutdown issue has officially ended, but recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials and the uncertainty surrounding the December FOMC meeting have significantly cooled market expectations for further rate cuts, leading to an overall decline in risk appetite.


Reviewing policy trends: At the end of October, the Federal Reserve cut rates again by 25 basis points, marking the second consecutive rate cut this year. The target range for the federal funds rate has been lowered from 4.00%–4.25% to 3.75%–4.00%, creating a new three-year low. This move demonstrates the Federal Reserve's attempt to seek a balance between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation.


Looking ahead to the December meeting, the Federal Reserve will receive more key data to support decision-making, including September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the preliminary GDP for the third quarter. The market's focus is on whether the employment reports for October and November can be released as scheduled, as this will directly impact the assessment of the policy path.


Morgan Stanley pointed out that if employment and economic data continue to be robust, the Federal Reserve may slow the pace of rate cuts; if the data is weak, there remains room for flexible adjustments to interest rates. In the short term, investors should pay attention to how policy news and macro data affect market risk appetite, especially concerning U.S. stocks, the dollar, and commodity volatility.


💡 Key Takeaway: The end of the shutdown temporarily alleviates policy uncertainty, but the market must remain vigilant about the impact of economic data and Federal Reserve speeches on risk assets before the FOMC meeting.


#美联储 #FOMC #宏观经济 #降息动态 #市场风险

🚨 *Latest News:*
Donald Trump announced *no new tariff measures for now* ⚖️🛑 This decision has brought a sigh of relief to global markets.

🔍 Focus here:
- The White House clarified: No additional import tariffs will be imposed at this time.
- Future plans remain uncertain; he hinted that if the Supreme Court rules he does not have the authority to impose tariffs, a "backup plan" is in the works.
- Targeted parties include:
- U.S. manufacturers and importers
- Countries of concern: China 🇨🇳, European Union 🇪🇺, Canada 🇨🇦

⚠️ Market Notes:
- The short-term market has eased somewhat, but the core issue remains: who will define trade policy?
- The final trend will depend on the Supreme Court's ruling + the next steps from Trump's team.

📌 #特朗普 #关税 #贸易政策 #全球市场 #宏观经济 $TRUMP

The "standstill" crisis is about to be resolved: Polymarket odds have plummeted, and the U.S. government is finally about to "open for business", temporarily alleviating the market uncertainty alarm.
Stability is key, stay observant!
#政府停摆 #加密货币 #比特币 #宏观经济 #市场分析