First, let's discuss the logic:
The first layer of logic is the pressure of capital controls.
Chinese asset prices have long been higher than overseas. Under the premise of strict capital account management, there is a natural impulse for capital outflow.
Cryptocurrencies, by nature, are tools for cross-border value transfer that bypass regulation. Once released, they will directly amplify the outflow of funds.
The second layer of logic is the position in the economic cycle.
Currently in a typical phase of 'balance sheet recession':
Enterprises are deleveraging, real estate is clearing, local debts are under pressure, and what the economy needs is 'support', not 'pressure relief'.
Releasing cryptocurrencies at this stage is equivalent to adding an uncontrolled outlet to an already fragile financial system.
The third layer of logic is the policy objective function.
The current policy priorities are very clear: stabilize finance > stabilize growth > structural reform.
Any variable that may impact financial stability does not have a policy-friendly space.
Based on these three points, my view is very clear:
Not loosening in the short term is a rational choice, not a conservative mistake.
The problem is not with cryptocurrencies, but with macro constraints.
My judgment is:
In the future, there will definitely be a gradual relaxation.
But it will not happen in this cycle.
The real window period must wait for the asset bubble to clear, for the convergence of internal and external asset price differences, and for the internationalization of the Renminbi to enter a new stage.
The trend is certain, but the timing is uncertain.
The ones who can truly make money are never the ones who gamble on time, but those who go with the cycle.
