Tonight's Federal Reserve major decision: A "hawkish rate cut" may trigger a global market explosion!
At 3 AM Beijing time on Thursday, the global financial market enters a countdown as the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision.
The market generally bets on a third consecutive rate cut of 25 basis points, with the rate falling in the range of 3.5%-3.75%.
But the focus is not on "cutting rates", but on
⚡ This is a rate cut with a warning: "hawkish rate cut"
The Federal Reserve is seriously divided internally: #加密市场反弹
• One faction: Employment worsens → Need to continue cutting rates
• One faction: Inflation remains high → Cannot loosen monetary policy further
Thus, the most dangerous combination appears:
➡️ One side cuts rates
➡️ One side hints 'this may be the last time'
This is more dangerous than not cutting rates.
🔥Focus 1: How will Powell 'speak' tonight?
Goldman Sachs predicts: the statement will revert to cautious wording like 'further adjustments in magnitude and timing'
👉 This tells the market: don't expect continued rate cuts.
Every word from Powell's press conference could trigger instant fluctuations in BTC, ETH, and the Nasdaq.
🔥Focus 2: Internal voting may face a 'wave of opposition'
This decision is very likely to see multiple opposing votes: #美联储重启降息步伐
• Kansas City President George: Expects to continue opposing rate cuts
• St. Louis President Bullard: Concerned inflation may lead to opposition
• Director Milan: May even call for a 50bp rate cut again
The Federal Reserve has not seen such a three-way split in a long time.
🔥Focus 3: If inflation doesn't go down, employment starts to 'soften'
• Core PCE still at 2.8% → Higher than target
• US hiring slows, layoffs increase → Employment under pressure
This combination = the situation the Federal Reserve fears the most.
🔥Focus 4: Something more explosive is coming: Will QE return?
The Federal Reserve just stopped tapering in October, and now it's reported—
➡️ May restart bond purchases (but won't publicly call it QE)
The reason is: market liquidity is tight.
This is a super big signal.
🔔Tonight's market expectations (personal opinion) #ETH走势分析
• Hawkish rate cuts emerge → BTC, ETH will first fluctuate, then find direction
• Dot plot leans hawkish → US stocks briefly shake, US dollar rebounds
• If hinting at continued rate cuts → Strong stimulus → BTC may surge to 110k
（Market conditions change rapidly, the above does not constitute investment advice）
