As of September 12, 2025, the Linea token generation event (TGE) was launched on September 10, and the airdrop claim window has been open for two days.

The following analysis is based on the latest publicly available data and on-chain activities.

The data comes from official announcements, exchange reports, and community feedback. The airdrop mechanism is designed for full unlock (no vesting), but short-term selling pressure is significant.

Note: Data on destruction is still limited and on-chain records need to be continuously monitored.

1. Total airdrop claim data for the entire network:

936 million LINEA tokens (approximately 13% of the total supply of 7.201 billion tokens) have been allocated to about 749,662 to 780,000 eligible wallets.

This is one of the larger airdrops among Layer 2 projects, targeting participants of Linea Voyage (LXP) and Linea Surge (LXP-L) activities. Allocation structure: 9% to LXP holders (minimum 2,000 LXP), 4% to LXP-L holders (minimum 15,000 LXP-L), 1% directly to ecological strategists (not from airdrop claims).

Qualification requirements: Based on the July 30 snapshot, must pass Proof-of-Humanity (PoH) verification to exclude Sybil attacks. Early adopters (such as active users before March 2024) can receive a 10% bonus.

Claim window: September 10, 2025 15:00 UTC to December 9, 2025 23:59 UTC (90 days). Unclaimed tokens will return to the Linea ecological fund.

Current claiming situation:

Qualification check: Since going live on September 3, over 500,000 check requests have been processed.

Claim progress: Two days after TGE launch, community reports show some users have successfully claimed, but network congestion caused delays (brief mainnet interruption of about 1 hour on September 10-11).

Claiming method: Interact directly via Linea Hub (https://linea.build/hub) or LineaScan smart contract. MetaMask Portfolio integrates an airdrop button for easy checks.

Unclaimed risk: After the deadline, tokens will be redirected to the ecological fund to support protocol development and partner incentives.

2. Selling pressure analysis Current selling pressure level: High (short-term selling pressure dominant).

After TGE, LINEA's price dropped from a listing peak of $0.045 to $0.023 (-48.7%), with a 24-hour trading volume of $545 million and FDV of approximately $1.7 billion (ranking 3rd among Layer 2).

Main reason: Full airdrop unlock: 13% supply (approximately 1.58 billion tokens in circulation) directly enters the market, qualified users (750K+) sell quickly, leading to the 'sell the news' effect.

Community reports show that after receiving airdrops, immediate sell-offs occurred, similar to Arbitrum's TGE model.

Liquidity incentives: 160 million tokens reward pool further dilutes supply, raising concerns.

Network issues: September 10 sequencer interruption and Gas fees skyrocketing, amplifying panic.

Market sentiment: X posts show users complaining about "poor airdrop execution" and "low FDV" ($1.8 billion), but also acknowledge that the 13% community allocation is better than other projects (no VC/team shares).

Short-term forecast: Selling pressure may continue until the peak of claims ends (expected by the end of September), then rebound to $0.05-$0.08. Positive factors: Listings on CEXes like Binance, OKX increase liquidity; October's native ETH staking and Ignition plan ($1 billion LINEA rewards, target TVL $1 billion) could alleviate selling pressure.

Comparison: Compared to Arbitrum (11.62% airdrop, listing FDV $15 billion), Linea's low FDV ($1.8 billion) amplifies selling pressure, but its long-term ecological orientation (85% supply to ecology) is more favorable.

3. Overall vesting structure of monthly unlock volumes:

22% in circulation at TGE (1.58 billion tokens), the rest locked or gradually unlocked.

No team/investor allocation, emphasizing community orientation. The airdrop part is fully unlocked, while other parts are released through cliff (one-time) and linear mechanisms.

Main allocation: Ecological fund (75% total supply, approximately 540 million tokens): 10-year unlock, with the first 25% within 12-18 months (before September 2026), and the remaining 50% released linearly until 2035.

Estimated monthly unlock: Approximately 450 million tokens (total 75% / 10 years / 12 months), but the first two years are weighted higher (approximately 600-700 million tokens/month).

ConsenSys treasury (15%, approximately 1.08 billion tokens): 5-year cliff lockup, fully unlocked by September 2030. Monthly unlock: 0 (one-time after cliff).

Liquidity/market making (12%): TGE fully unlocked, no follow-up. Future airdrops/incentives: Gradual release, included in the ecological fund.

Current (September) unlock: Airdrop dominated (936 million tokens released), no additional vesting unlocks.

Future monthly unlocks depend on the activation of the ecological fund, expected to stabilize at 400-600 million tokens/month from 2026, supporting R&D and partners. Impact: Gradual unlocking reduces selling pressure, but monitoring the decisions of the Linea Consortium (ConsenSys, Eigen Labs, etc.) is necessary.

4. Monthly burn volume mechanism: Dual burning—20% net Gas fees (after deducting L1 costs) burn ETH, 80% used for buyback and burn LINEA. Gas fees paid in ETH, network activity drives burns.

Current data: Limited data post-TGE, LineaScan has not disclosed specific total amounts. Test burns before September 8: 188 million LINEA sent to null address (accounting for 2.6% of total supply), but informal. Estimation: Based on TVL of $1.29 billion, daily trading volume of 6 million transactions, monthly Gas fees around $30 million. 80% ($24 million) is used for buyback and burn, at a price of $0.024, approximately 1 billion tokens are burned monthly (accounting for 6.3% of circulation).

September actual: Two days after TGE launch, network congestion increased fees, with initial burns possibly reaching 200-300 million tokens (based on X reports and DeFiLlama fee data).

Annual potential: 11.6 billion tokens (total supply 16%).

Impact: Short-term burns are not enough to offset airdrop selling pressure, but with the launch of ETH staking in October (locking liquidity), trading volume increases, and burns will accelerate. Long-term deflation, supporting prices to $0.20-$0.30 (2026).

Current indicators based on September data monthly estimation (future) notes airdrop claiming 500K+ checks, some claims in N/A 90-day window, 750K qualifying selling pressure high (price -46.7%) medium (gradual unlock) airdrop sells dominate unlock volume of 936 million tokens (airdrop) 400-600 million tokens ecological fund linear burn amount 200-300 million tokens (initial) 1 billion tokens 80% Gas fee buyback summary: Airdrop claiming is active but selling pressure is heavy (price $0.024), the mechanism of monthly unlocks of 400-600 million tokens and burning 1 billion tokens is conducive to long-term stability.