Let's talk about the upcoming market trends; there are three days left until the interest rate meeting on September 18; the market has nearly a 97% probability of a 25bp rate cut in September; it can be seen as a foregone conclusion; a done deal; it has clearly told you that this is positive for the market; (observing BTC; ETH; and the net inflow of ETFs in the coming days) but what we focus on is not how much it drops; but how many more cuts are to come, this is the key, can Bitcoin and Ethereum experience a big surge? Let's start with a question mark.
"Morgan Stanley & Deutsche Bank: Reports released by the two major banks both predict that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at every remaining meeting this year. That is to say, 25 basis points will be cut at the meetings in September, October, and December. Previously, these two institutions only expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates twice this year (in September and December), but given the recent mild inflation pressures and a weakening labor market, they believe it is necessary to add another rate cut in October. This adjustment raised their forecast for the total rate cut for the year to 75 basis points, consistent with mainstream market views. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and other investment banks: Several Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, expect three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points (that is, 25 basis points each starting from September) in the remaining time this year. They believe the Federal Reserve may initiate the first rate cut in September and cut another 25 basis points at the meetings in October and December, thus lowering the year-end federal funds rate to about 3.50% to
3.75% level. This expectation aligns with the current pricing in the CME futures market (i.e., the path of three small interest rate cuts)
The analyses and predictions provided by these leading institutions are not just about the interest rate cut in September; it's the beginning of a series of interest rate cut cycles; the market path after the initiation of interest rate cuts; low interest rates, ample liquidity, and the net inflow of ETFs will warm up the cryptocurrency market; market volatility will gradually increase 48 hours before and after the interest rate cut; this is because some institutional assets need adjustment; and the heightened emotions of retail investors contribute to this; the market gradually becomes active, shorts cover, and longs increase their positions; it's quite lively. Historically speaking; the market tends to digest expectations before interest rate cuts; (for example, the recent market performance) and after the interest rate cut, the market tends to fall back; as the saying goes, good news hitting the ground is bad news. There will be a brief rise in the market 48 hours after the meeting; it will be a very good opportunity for short-term players; afterwards, it will enter a correction; either a sharp drop will occur or a large interval of fluctuation; cleaning up high leverage contracts (refer to the two interest rate cuts in 2024) it is recommended not to operate during this period (high risk factor)
How to operate after the interest rate cut? When the market corrects after the interest rate cut, $BTC price 109000-113000 build positions in batches in spot; if it dips below 110000, leverage operations in coin terms can be combined.
Callback below 4500; build positions in batches; callback around 4000; don't hesitate; directly leverage operations in coin terms; these two major mainstream coins should occupy 70% of your position; the remaining 30% should be used to build positions in SOL, BNB, ADA, etc.; do these things and go do what you need to do; play with your wife and kids; by the end of the year or after the new year; change your car if you need to; change your villa if you need to.