🌎 Macroeconomics and the Big Picture
Recently, the US stock market has continued its strong trend, with the Nasdaq consistently rising, driven primarily by expectations of interest rate cuts. Market expectations for liquidity easing have intensified, and there is a noticeable increase in risk appetite, which has directly boosted the overall strength of risk assets. Bitcoin, as the leading digital asset, is experiencing increased correlation and is expected to accelerate upward in the short term, leveraging macro sentiment to challenge the $120,000 mark.
💰 Bitcoin (BTC)
Overnight, Bitcoin maintained a narrow range of fluctuations, peaking at $116,000 before facing downward pressure. It is currently trading in a range concentrated between $114,000 and $116,200. From the chart perspective, prices have been consolidating within this range, forming a converging triangle pattern, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears below the key resistance level.
The Bollinger Bands are operating below the midline, with technical indicators showing short-term weakness. Liquidation distribution reveals a significant accumulation of high-leverage long positions in the range of $116,800 to $117,200. A breakdown below this level will trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations, creating a “long squeeze” effect that accelerates downward movement. The support below has been tested multiple times; if it breaks, it will directly widen the volatility range. Overall, the current pattern is awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting as a catalyst.
👉 Strategy
Aggressive: Short near $116,000, target $114,000;
Conservative: If a volume stop or lower shadow signal occurs in the range of $113,600 to $113,200, consider establishing long positions, targeting $115,000 to $117,000.
🥈 Ethereum (ETH)
The key support level for ETH on the daily chart is around $4,430, and prices are likely to need to test this level. The bottom is gradually moving lower on the 4-hour chart, with the rebound highs also declining, placing the current trend in a corrective phase after a drop. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, with short-term movements being stable but slightly weak, making significant fluctuations unlikely in the near term.
On a macro level, the short-term adjustment is due to profit-taking and technical corrections; however, the liquidity environment supported by expectations of interest rate cuts still underpins the medium to long-term trend. The overall approach remains centered on low-level buying.
👉 Strategy
Aggressive: Short in the range of $4,530 to $4,550, target $4,430;
Conservative: Establish long positions in the range of $4,400 to $4,430, with a target of $4,540, looking to $4,680 after a breakout and stabilization.
